Based on the provided data and current market conditions, let me analyze if KKR is overvalued:
Technical Analysis
Valuation Analysis
KKR's PE ratio has increased significantly from 22.8x in Q1 2024 to 40.4x in Q3 2024, suggesting substantial multiple expansion. Similarly, EV/EBITDA has risen from 24.9x to 39.3x, indicating the stock has become more expensive relative to its earnings and cash flows.
Growth & Profitability
While revenue shows volatility across quarters ($10.5B in Q1 to $6.5B in Q3), net margins have improved from 10.4% to 22.0%. However, ROE has declined from 20.2% to 13.5%, suggesting potentially declining capital efficiency.
Analyst Sentiment
Recent analyst actions show mixed views:
- Wells Fargo maintained Hold rating with $151 PT (5.12% upside)
- KBW has a Buy rating with $168 PT (18.94% upside)
- Oppenheimer raised PT to $175 with Buy rating
Conclusion
Yes, KKR appears overvalued based on:
- Significant multiple expansion with PE ratio nearly doubling
- Trading above most analyst price targets
- Declining ROE despite margin improvements
- Historical valuation metrics showing current levels well above recent averages
- Technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions