AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab Outlook Analysis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy ASTS?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Massive Market Potential: Research by the American Foreign Policy Council estimates that the space economy could reach $10 trillion by 2050, attracting investor interest and driving AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab's stock prices up by 1,500% and 1,700%, respectively, over the past three years.
- AST SpaceMobile's Innovation: AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite-based mobile broadband network expected to serve nearly 6 billion people, particularly in areas lacking traditional coverage, significantly enhancing its market share and revenue potential.
- Rocket Lab's Government Contracts: Rocket Lab recently secured a $190 million contract for 20 suborbital launches to test hypersonic flight technology for the U.S. military, which not only strengthens its position in the defense sector but also provides a solid foundation for future revenue growth.
- Investor Choice Consideration: While AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab have similar market caps of $33 billion and $37 billion, respectively, analysts suggest Rocket Lab's more attractive valuation and progress in government contracts make it a more compelling investment option.
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Analyst Views on ASTS
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTS stock price to rise
8 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 87.860
Low
43.00
Averages
91.68
High
137.00
Current: 87.860
Low
43.00
Averages
91.68
High
137.00
About ASTS
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. is engaged in building a global cellular broadband network in space to operate directly with standard, unmodified mobile devices based on its intellectual property (IP) and patent portfolio and designed for both commercial and government applications. The Company is engaged in designing and developing the constellation of BlueBird (BB) satellites and has planned space-based Cellular Broadband network distributed through a constellation of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Its SpaceMobile Service is being designed to provide high-speed cellular broadband services to end-users who are out of terrestrial cellular coverage using existing mobile devices. The Company intends to continue testing capabilities of the BW3 test satellite, including further testing with cellular service providers and the government. The Company has operations in India, Scotland, Spain, and Israel.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
AST SpaceMobile Targets April Launch for BlueBird-7 Satellite
- Launch Window Selection: AST SpaceMobile is targeting an April 10 launch for its BlueBird-7 satellite aboard Blue Origin's New Glenn-3 mission, coinciding with NASA's Artemis II mission, marking the first crewed lunar flight since 1972, which may attract increased attention and investment.
- Satellite Network Support: BlueBird-7 will support AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-cell satellite network, allowing standard smartphones to remain connected beyond terrestrial coverage, a technological innovation that could enhance the company's competitiveness in the global communications market.
- Positive Market Reaction: Although AST SpaceMobile's stock fell over 10% last Friday, it has more than tripled over the past year, indicating investor optimism regarding the upcoming launch, especially as user sentiment on the social media platform Stocktwits remains neutral with a nearly 70% increase in message volume.
- NASA Mission Preparations: NASA's Artemis II mission preparations are in the final stages, with astronauts entering pre-launch quarantine to ensure readiness, and if weather conditions permit, this will lay the groundwork for future Artemis missions, indirectly boosting AST SpaceMobile's market performance.
See More
AST SpaceMobile Stock Volatility and Growth Potential
- Stock Price Volatility: AST SpaceMobile's shares surged over 196% in the past year and more than 11% so far in 2026, but recently pulled back about 37% due to capital restructuring, indicating market concerns about its future profitability.
- Satellite Launch Plans: The company aims to launch 45 to 60 satellites by the end of 2026, expected to provide coverage for global 4G and 5G smartphones, although it reported a net loss of over $340 million in 2025, highlighting profitability challenges.
- Financing and Capital Structure: AST SpaceMobile raised $3.9 billion through a $1 billion convertible note offering and stock issuance, which increased its share count but raised concerns about future financing needs to support its expansion plans.
- Government Contract Support: The company secured a $30 million contract from the U.S. government, indicating its technology's potential in military communications, opening a new revenue stream, although it faces increasing market competition and must focus on long-term profitability.
See More
AST SpaceMobile's Satellite Service Prospects Analyzed
- Stock Volatility: AST SpaceMobile's shares have surged over 196% in the past year but have pulled back 37% from a 52-week high, currently trading around $81, reflecting market concerns about its profitability.
- Revenue Growth: The company reported $70.9 million in revenue for 2025, a significant increase from $4.4 million in 2024, although it still faces a net loss exceeding $340 million, indicating both challenges and potential in its business model.
- Satellite Launch Plans: AST plans to launch 45 to 60 satellites by the end of this year, aiming to provide global 4G and 5G connectivity through its low Earth orbit satellites, which is expected to give the company a significant first-mover advantage in the market.
- Government Contract Support: The company secured a $30 million government contract, indicating its technology's potential applications in military communications, which could provide a valuable revenue stream in the future.
See More
AST SpaceMobile's Stock Fluctuations and Growth Potential
- Stock Surge: AST SpaceMobile's shares have soared over 196% in the past year and more than 11% so far in 2026, primarily driven by the launch of its low Earth orbit satellites, which enable global connectivity for 4G and 5G smartphones, significantly enhancing its competitive edge.
- Revenue Growth vs. Losses: Despite reporting $70.9 million in revenue for 2025, a substantial increase from $4.4 million in 2024, the company still posted a net loss exceeding $340 million, highlighting severe profitability challenges ahead.
- Capital Structure Adjustments: In February, the company announced a $1 billion private offering of convertible notes and raised a total of $3.9 billion through direct stock offerings, which, while providing necessary funds, also diluted shares and raised concerns about future capital needs.
- Government Contract Support: AST SpaceMobile secured a $30 million contract from the U.S. government, indicating the dual-use potential of its technology for military communications, thereby opening up a new revenue stream and strengthening its market position.
See More
U.S. Markets Fell on Friday; AST SpaceMobile Suffered the Largest Loss
- Stock Market Decline: U.S. stock indexes experienced a decline on Friday, with the overall market falling by 2.15%.
- Sector Performance: The S&P 500 index decreased by 1.73%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1.67%.
See More
SpaceX Prepares for IPO, Valuation Could Reach $1.75 Trillion
- Massive Fundraising: SpaceX plans to raise up to $75 billion through its IPO, potentially making it the largest IPO in history with a valuation of $1.75 trillion, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $1.7 trillion market debut in 2019.
- Rapid Revenue Growth: Analysts estimate that SpaceX's revenue doubled from $2.3 billion in 2021 to $4.6 billion in 2022, then surged by 90% to $8.7 billion in 2023, with projections of $13.1 billion in 2024 and $15.5 billion in 2025, indicating a strong maturation of its business.
- Competitive Market Advantage: With major clients like NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense, SpaceX generates most of its revenue from Starlink satellites and launch services, and its scale and market share significantly exceed competitors like AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab, reinforcing its leadership in the aerospace sector.
- Strategic Acquisition for Growth: SpaceX's recent acquisition of Musk's smaller AI company xAI, which developed the Grok generative AI platform, is expected to enhance its sales and strengthen its core satellite and rocket businesses, driving future growth potential.
See More
AST SpaceMobile Targets April Launch for BlueBird-7 Satellite
- Launch Window Selection: AST SpaceMobile is targeting an April 10 launch for its BlueBird-7 satellite aboard Blue Origin's New Glenn-3 mission, coinciding with NASA's Artemis II mission, marking the first crewed lunar flight since 1972, which may attract increased attention and investment.
- Satellite Network Support: BlueBird-7 will support AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-cell satellite network, allowing standard smartphones to remain connected beyond terrestrial coverage, a technological innovation that could enhance the company's competitiveness in the global communications market.
- Positive Market Reaction: Although AST SpaceMobile's stock fell over 10% last Friday, it has more than tripled over the past year, indicating investor optimism regarding the upcoming launch, especially as user sentiment on the social media platform Stocktwits remains neutral with a nearly 70% increase in message volume.
- NASA Mission Preparations: NASA's Artemis II mission preparations are in the final stages, with astronauts entering pre-launch quarantine to ensure readiness, and if weather conditions permit, this will lay the groundwork for future Artemis missions, indirectly boosting AST SpaceMobile's market performance.
See More
AST SpaceMobile Stock Volatility and Growth Potential
- Stock Price Volatility: AST SpaceMobile's shares surged over 196% in the past year and more than 11% so far in 2026, but recently pulled back about 37% due to capital restructuring, indicating market concerns about its future profitability.
- Satellite Launch Plans: The company aims to launch 45 to 60 satellites by the end of 2026, expected to provide coverage for global 4G and 5G smartphones, although it reported a net loss of over $340 million in 2025, highlighting profitability challenges.
- Financing and Capital Structure: AST SpaceMobile raised $3.9 billion through a $1 billion convertible note offering and stock issuance, which increased its share count but raised concerns about future financing needs to support its expansion plans.
- Government Contract Support: The company secured a $30 million contract from the U.S. government, indicating its technology's potential in military communications, opening a new revenue stream, although it faces increasing market competition and must focus on long-term profitability.
See More
AST SpaceMobile's Satellite Service Prospects Analyzed
- Stock Volatility: AST SpaceMobile's shares have surged over 196% in the past year but have pulled back 37% from a 52-week high, currently trading around $81, reflecting market concerns about its profitability.
- Revenue Growth: The company reported $70.9 million in revenue for 2025, a significant increase from $4.4 million in 2024, although it still faces a net loss exceeding $340 million, indicating both challenges and potential in its business model.
- Satellite Launch Plans: AST plans to launch 45 to 60 satellites by the end of this year, aiming to provide global 4G and 5G connectivity through its low Earth orbit satellites, which is expected to give the company a significant first-mover advantage in the market.
- Government Contract Support: The company secured a $30 million government contract, indicating its technology's potential applications in military communications, which could provide a valuable revenue stream in the future.
See More
AST SpaceMobile's Stock Fluctuations and Growth Potential
- Stock Surge: AST SpaceMobile's shares have soared over 196% in the past year and more than 11% so far in 2026, primarily driven by the launch of its low Earth orbit satellites, which enable global connectivity for 4G and 5G smartphones, significantly enhancing its competitive edge.
- Revenue Growth vs. Losses: Despite reporting $70.9 million in revenue for 2025, a substantial increase from $4.4 million in 2024, the company still posted a net loss exceeding $340 million, highlighting severe profitability challenges ahead.
- Capital Structure Adjustments: In February, the company announced a $1 billion private offering of convertible notes and raised a total of $3.9 billion through direct stock offerings, which, while providing necessary funds, also diluted shares and raised concerns about future capital needs.
- Government Contract Support: AST SpaceMobile secured a $30 million contract from the U.S. government, indicating the dual-use potential of its technology for military communications, thereby opening up a new revenue stream and strengthening its market position.
See More
U.S. Markets Fell on Friday; AST SpaceMobile Suffered the Largest Loss
- Stock Market Decline: U.S. stock indexes experienced a decline on Friday, with the overall market falling by 2.15%.
- Sector Performance: The S&P 500 index decreased by 1.73%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 1.67%.
See More
SpaceX Prepares for IPO, Valuation Could Reach $1.75 Trillion
- Massive Fundraising: SpaceX plans to raise up to $75 billion through its IPO, potentially making it the largest IPO in history with a valuation of $1.75 trillion, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $1.7 trillion market debut in 2019.
- Rapid Revenue Growth: Analysts estimate that SpaceX's revenue doubled from $2.3 billion in 2021 to $4.6 billion in 2022, then surged by 90% to $8.7 billion in 2023, with projections of $13.1 billion in 2024 and $15.5 billion in 2025, indicating a strong maturation of its business.
- Competitive Market Advantage: With major clients like NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense, SpaceX generates most of its revenue from Starlink satellites and launch services, and its scale and market share significantly exceed competitors like AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab, reinforcing its leadership in the aerospace sector.
- Strategic Acquisition for Growth: SpaceX's recent acquisition of Musk's smaller AI company xAI, which developed the Grok generative AI platform, is expected to enhance its sales and strengthen its core satellite and rocket businesses, driving future growth potential.
See More
