Should You Buy AST SpaceMobile Inc (ASTS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
122.090
1 Day change
0.71%
52 Week Range
124.320
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a Beginner long-term investor with $50k–$100k. The stock is in a strong uptrend but is already trading above the $100 target from a key Neutral analyst while facing meaningful execution/capex and profitability uncertainty. With no proprietary buy signals today and near-term pattern odds leaning slightly negative over the next week, the risk/reward at ~$112 pre-market is not attractive enough to justify an immediate long-term entry.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish but momentum is cooling. Price is in a confirmed uptrend with bullish moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200). MACD histogram is positive (0.656) but “positively contracting,” suggesting upside momentum is slowing versus prior sessions. RSI(6)=58.38 is neutral (not overbought), which supports the idea the trend is intact, but not giving a fresh oversold entry. Key levels: Pivot 105.46 is the main near-term support area; resistance is 117.75 (R1) then 125.35 (R2). Pre-market at 112.58 sits between pivot and R1—more ‘mid-range’ than ‘discount.’ Pattern-based outlook provided: +0.76% next day, -1.78% next week, +2.18% next month (mildly choppy near-term).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning reads moderately bullish/risk-on: Put/Call ratios below 1.0 (OI PCR 0.59; Volume PCR 0.63) suggest more call interest and call trading than puts. Volatility is elevated (30D IV ~104.7% vs historical vol ~90.2%), consistent with a high-expectation, catalyst-driven name. Volume is near typical (today vs 30D avg ~90%), so sentiment is constructive but not showing an extreme ‘blow-off’ day from this snapshot.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Event-driven catalyst: BlueBird 7 mission launch scheduled for late February; recent announcement already drove a +4.5% move, and a successful launch could further reinforce the commercialization narrative.
Smart-money activity: Hedge funds net buying up +257.6% last quarter; insiders buying up +160.1% last month—supports confidence and alignment.
Analyst upside from bulls: Deutsche Bank and Clear Street both raised price targets to $137 (Buy), citing partnerships and scaling potential in direct-to-device.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Valuation and expectation risk: One major bear case (Scotiabank) argues the stock has overshot “irrational levels,” with a $45.60 target and a view that meaningful cash flow may not arrive until 2028/
Financial execution risk: still heavily loss-making with negative gross margin, implying the business is not yet operating in a stable commercial mode.
Competitive/industry headline risk: while BofA dismissed Blue Origin’s TeraWave as not a direct threat, the broader satellite-constellation landscape remains crowded and can pressure sentiment quickly.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to $14.74M (+1239.91% YoY), showing strong growth off a small base. However, profitability deteriorated: Net income -$122.87M (more negative YoY), EPS -$0.45 (worse YoY), and gross margin was -23.67% (negative). Bottom line: growth is accelerating, but the company is still in an investment-heavy, pre-scale phase with losses and negative margins dominating the income statement.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend is mixed but with sharply higher upside targets from bulls. On 2026-01-20, Deutsche Bank raised PT to $137 (from $81) and kept Buy; Clear Street also raised PT to $137 (from $87) and kept Buy—both constructive on direct-to-cell and partnerships. BofA is Neutral with a $100 PT (raised from $85), and explicitly said competitive fears from Blue Origin’s TeraWave are “misplaced,” but still not recommending buying here. Scotiabank is the clear bear, downgrading to Underperform with a $45.60 PT on 2026-01-07, arguing timing/execution and cash-flow timeline are problematic. Wall Street pros/cons summary: Pros—credible partnerships and large market opportunity in direct-to-device; upcoming launch catalysts; bullish target revisions from some firms. Cons—extreme dispersion in targets (from ~$45 to ~$137) signals high uncertainty; profitability/cash-flow timeline remains long; current price already above a major Neutral PT.
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTS stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASTS is 74.26 USD with a low forecast of 43 USD and a high forecast of 100 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTS stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASTS is 74.26 USD with a low forecast of 43 USD and a high forecast of 100 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
3 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 121.230
Low
43
Averages
74.26
High
100
Current: 121.230
Low
43
Averages
74.26
High
100
BofA
Neutral
maintain
$100
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$100
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
maintain
Neutral
Reason
After Blue Origin announced plans for a new satellite communications network, TeraWave, that will leverage low and medium Earth orbit satellites to deliver symmetrical data speeds up to 6 Tbps, BofA said TeraWave "adds to the long list of planned satellite constellations," but is not a direct competitive threat to AST SpaceMobile, which targets the direct-to-device D2D market largely through mobile network operator partnerships. The firm, which contends that fears for AST SpaceMobile on the TeraWave news are "misplaced," reiterates a Neutral rating and $100 price target on AST shares.
Deutsche Bank
Buy
upgrade
$81 -> $137
2026-01-20
Reason
Deutsche Bank
Price Target
$81 -> $137
2026-01-20
upgrade
Buy
Reason
Deutsche Bank raised the firm's price target on AST SpaceMobile to $137 from $81 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
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