Alcoa Shares Plunge as Aluminum Prices Drop Amid Iran War Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 19 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AA?
Source: seekingalpha
- Aluminum Price Plunge: Aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange fell sharply to $3,115 per ton, an 8% drop, marking the largest decline since 2018, driven by concerns over the economic impact of the Iran war, resulting in widespread losses across industrial metals markets.
- Alcoa Stock Drop: Alcoa (AA) shares plummeted 11% in early trading on Thursday, closely tied to the sharp decline in aluminum prices, indicating heightened investor concerns regarding the company's future profitability amid volatile market conditions.
- Rising Chinese Aluminum Stocks: Despite rising global aluminum prices, ANZ analysts noted that stockpiles in China continue to build, tempering some bullish price pressures while incentivizing Chinese producers to export more, which helps mitigate global supply risks.
- Middle East Import Dependency: The Middle East accounts for 8%-9% of global aluminum output but only produces 3% of alumina and 1% of bauxite, leaving smelters heavily reliant on seaborne imports, a structural issue that is particularly pronounced in the current market environment.
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Analyst Views on AA
Wall Street analysts forecast AA stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 58.410
Low
38.00
Averages
57.63
High
78.00
Current: 58.410
Low
38.00
Averages
57.63
High
78.00
About AA
Alcoa Corporation is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting and casting), and energy generation. The Company’s operations are comprised of two business segments: Alumina and Aluminum. The Alumina segment primarily consists of its bauxite mines and alumina refineries, which generally include the mining of bauxite and other aluminous ores, as well as the refining, production, and sale of smelter grade and non-metallurgical alumina. The alumina produced by this segment is sold to internal and external aluminum smelter customers; a portion of the alumina is sold to external customers who process it into industrial chemical products. The Aluminum segment consists of the Company’s aluminum smelting and casting operations along with the Company’s energy production assets in Brazil, Canada, and the United States. It has direct and indirect ownership of 26 operating locations across nine countries on six continents.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Rising Oil Prices: Crude oil prices surged over 2% to a three-week high due to disruptions in oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Iran conflict, which could negatively impact global economic growth.
- Weak Manufacturing Activity: The Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index dropped from -0.4 to -0.2, falling short of the expected increase to 2.0, suggesting challenges in economic recovery that may influence future policy decisions.
- Escalating International Tensions: U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran have intensified, with 3,500 sailors and Marines deployed to the Middle East, potentially leading to further volatility in energy markets and impacting global supply chains.
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- Rising Oil Prices: Crude oil prices surged over 2% to a three-week high due to Iranian attacks on shipping, raising fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt global oil and gas supplies, which may lead to significant price increases.
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- Declining Bond Yields: The 10-year T-note yield fell by 8 basis points to 4.35%, reflecting market concerns that the ongoing war in the Middle East may lead to fuel shortages, thereby suppressing inflation expectations and potentially keeping the Fed from raising interest rates in upcoming meetings.
- Rising Oil Prices: Crude oil prices surged over 1% to a three-week high due to Iranian attacks on shipping, with fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt global oil supplies, potentially driving prices to exceed the 2008 record high.
- Energy Infrastructure Damage: The International Energy Agency reported that more than 40 energy sites across nine Middle Eastern countries have been severely damaged, which could prolong disruptions to global supply chains after the war ends, further impacting international market stability.
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