Alcoa Sees Surge in Aluminum Orders Amid Supply Disruptions
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 17 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AA?
Source: seekingalpha
- Order Surge: Alcoa's CFO Molly Beerman noted at a JPMorgan conference that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant increase in aluminum orders and inquiries from customers, particularly those relying on Middle Eastern smelters, which is expected to boost the company's performance in the second half of the year.
- Supply-Demand Shift: Smelters in the Persian Gulf produce over 5 million tons of aluminum annually, accounting for about 9% of global supply, and production curtailments due to raw material conservation are leading to an estimated 1.9 million-ton deficit in the market, further tightening supply.
- Price Forecast: Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, predicts that aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange will rise from an average of $2,631 per ton last year to $3,481 this year, reflecting strong demand and supply constraints in the market.
- Supply Chain Adjustment: Alcoa ships approximately 4 million metric tons of aluminum to the Middle East each year, and with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, this supply is finding alternative markets, presenting new growth opportunities for the company in the global aluminum landscape.
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Analyst Views on AA
Wall Street analysts forecast AA stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 58.410
Low
38.00
Averages
57.63
High
78.00
Current: 58.410
Low
38.00
Averages
57.63
High
78.00
About AA
Alcoa Corporation is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting and casting), and energy generation. The Company’s operations are comprised of two business segments: Alumina and Aluminum. The Alumina segment primarily consists of its bauxite mines and alumina refineries, which generally include the mining of bauxite and other aluminous ores, as well as the refining, production, and sale of smelter grade and non-metallurgical alumina. The alumina produced by this segment is sold to internal and external aluminum smelter customers; a portion of the alumina is sold to external customers who process it into industrial chemical products. The Aluminum segment consists of the Company’s aluminum smelting and casting operations along with the Company’s energy production assets in Brazil, Canada, and the United States. It has direct and indirect ownership of 26 operating locations across nine countries on six continents.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Rising Oil Prices: Crude oil prices surged over 2% to a three-week high due to disruptions in oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Iran conflict, which could negatively impact global economic growth.
- Weak Manufacturing Activity: The Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index dropped from -0.4 to -0.2, falling short of the expected increase to 2.0, suggesting challenges in economic recovery that may influence future policy decisions.
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