VALE Should I Buy
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Vale SA is not a strong buy for a beginner, long-term investor at this moment. The stock's recent financial performance, negative earnings report, and lack of strong positive catalysts suggest caution. The technical indicators are mixed, and the options data reflects bearish sentiment. While some analysts have raised price targets, the overall sentiment remains cautious due to risks of oversupply in the iron ore market and global steel demand uncertainties.
The MACD is below 0 and negatively expanding, indicating bearish momentum. RSI is neutral at 48.737, showing no clear signal. Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but the stock is trading near its key support level of 16.138, with resistance at 17.475. The stock is down 2.58% in regular trading, showing short-term weakness.
Revenue rose 9% YoY in Q4, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 21%, indicating operational improvements. Some analysts, like Goldman Sachs, maintain a Buy rating with a price target of $18.
Vale reported a significant Q4 net loss of $3.84 billion due to asset write-downs, missing analyst expectations. Analysts like Scotiabank highlight risks of oversupply in the iron ore market and capped rally potential. Options data and technical indicators show bearish sentiment.
In Q4 2025, revenue increased by 9% YoY to $11.06 billion, but the company reported a net loss of $3.84 billion due to asset write-downs. This contrasts with Q3 2025, where revenue, net income, and EPS all showed strong YoY growth.
Analyst ratings are mixed. Goldman Sachs raised the price target to $18 with a Buy rating, while JPMorgan lowered its target to $17.50 but maintained an Overweight rating. Scotiabank downgraded the stock to Sector Perform, citing risks of oversupply in the iron ore market.
