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VALE Earnings

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Earning Analysis

Welcome to our in-depth analysis of Vale SA(VALE) earnings, offering investors a detailed look into the company’s financial performance, revenue trends, earnings per share (EPS), and market reactions. This page provides a comprehensive overview of Vale SA earnings history, forecasts, and key financial metrics, empowering you with the data needed to make informed investment decisions. Whether you're tracking quarterly results, analyzing earnings surprises, or exploring future projections, our detailed breakdown covers it all.

Earnings Forecast

Revenue
EPS
Currency: USD
Actual
Estimate

Surprise Analysis

Name
EPS
Revenue
Price Reaction
Fiscal QuarterEarning DateTimeEstimateActualSurprise%EstimateActualSurprise%1D5D
Fiscal Quarter
Earning Date
Time
Estimate
Actual
Surprise%
Estimate
Actual
Surprise%
1D
5D
FY2025Q32025-10-30After Hours0.480.63+31.2510.34B10.42B+0.74+1.68+3.53
FY2025Q22025-07-31After Hours0.34--8.88B8.80B-0.80+1.89+3.36
FY2025Q12025-04-24After Hours0.37--8.16B8.12B-0.53-2.56-4.51
FY2024Q42025-02-19After Hours0.53--10.06B10.12B+0.68+4.21+0.21
-2024-10-25After Hours0.41-----+1.19-2.57
FY2024Q22024-07-25-0.380.43+13.1610.02B9.92B-0.98+0.28+1.69
FY2024Q12024-04-24-0.420.39-7.148.56B8.46B-1.12+1.31-0.33
FY2023Q42024-02-22-1.040.56-46.1513.14B13.05B-0.69+0.60-0.45
FY2023Q32023-10-26-0.610.66+8.2010.71B10.38B-3.06+2.44+11.56
-2023-07-27-0.530.20-62.26----2.05-7.95
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VALE Earnings Analysis

Our earnings analysis provides a granular look at the company’s performance across recent fiscal quarters, highlighting key metrics such as revenue, EPS, and operating margins. By examining actual results against analyst estimates, we uncover trends and surprises that drive stock price movements, offering valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
In the most recent quarter, Vale SA reported performance for FY2025Q3, announced on 2025-10-30. The company achieved an EPS of 0.63, compared to analyst estimates of 0.48 by 31.25% . Revenue for the quarter reached 10.42B compared to expectations of 10.34B by 0.74% .
The stock price reacted with a 1.68% one-day change and a 3.53% five-day change following the earnings release. These movements reflect market reaction in Vale SA growth trajectory and strategic initiatives.

VALE Earnings Forecast

Looking ahead, Vale SA(VALE) remains a focal point for investors seeking growth opportunities. Analyst forecasts for 2025/Q4 project quarter revenue of 10.54B and an EPS of 0.59.
However, recent estimate revisions provide additional context. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 have been Revise Upward by 2.12%, while EPS estimates have been Revise Upward by 22.32%. For the upcoming Q4 2025, revenue estimates have been adjusted Revise Upward by 3.92% . These revisions correlate with a 30.38% change in stock price over the same period, suggesting potential buying opportunities for investors who believe in Vale SA long-term fundamentals.
The relationship between earnings forecast revisions and stock price movements is critical for investors. Positive revisions in revenue or EPS often signal strengthening fundamentals, making temporary price dips attractive entry points. Conversely, downward revisions may reflect short-term challenges.

Estimate Revision

The chart shows the correlation between VALE's stock price and earnings forecast revisions. Positive revisions in Revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals, making price dips potential buying opportunities.
Revenue Estimates for FY2025
Revise Upward
up Image
+2.12%
In Past 3 Month
EPS Estimates for FY2025
Revise Upward
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+22.32%
In Past 3 Month
Revenue Estimates for Q4 2025
Revise Upward
up Image
+3.92%
In Past 3 Month
Stock Price
Go Up
up Image
+30.38%
In Past 3 Month
1Y
3Y
5Y
Annual FY 2025
Currency: USD
Currency: USD
1Y
3Y
5Y
--
Revenue Estimate-Annual FY 2025:37.68B
--
EPS Estimate-Annual FY 2025:2.09
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Stock Price13.56
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Financial AI Agent

VALE Revenue and EPS Performance: A Historical Perspective

Vale SA revenue and earnings per share (EPS) performance over recent quarters provides a clear picture of its financial health. Below is a detailed breakdown of the company’s earnings history, showcasing actual results, analyst estimates, and surprise percentages for key fiscal quarters:
FY2025Q3 (2025-10-30,After Hours):
EPS: 0.63 (Actual) vs.0.48 (Estimate) (31.25%)
Revenue: 10.42B (Actual) vs. 10.34B (Estimate) (0.74%)
Price Reaction: 1.68%(1-Day), 3.53%(5-Day)
FY2025Q2 (2025-07-31,After Hours):
EPS: (Actual) vs.0.34 (Estimate) (%)
Revenue: 8.80B (Actual) vs. 8.88B (Estimate) (-0.80%)
Price Reaction: 1.89%(1-Day), 3.36%(5-Day)
FY2025Q1 (2025-04-24,After Hours):
EPS: (Actual) vs.0.37 (Estimate) (%)
Revenue: 8.12B (Actual) vs. 8.16B (Estimate) (-0.53%)
Price Reaction: -2.56%(1-Day), -4.51%(5-Day)
Earnings Reaction
The chart below shows how VALE performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, VALE sees a -1.21% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -0.26% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.71%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
For example, in SEP/2025, the stock changed 1.68% on the day following the earnings release and then changed by 4.12% over the next 10 days. These patterns provide investors with valuable insights into potential price movements and help inform trading strategies around earnings events.
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Transcript Summary

Vale SA (VALE) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-10-31
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, with reduced net debt and successful portfolio strategy. The Q&A reveals optimism about dividends and strategic growth in copper production, despite some uncertainties. The positive sentiment is reinforced by Vale's proactive market strategies and cost improvements, suggesting a likely stock price increase.
Vale SA (VALE) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-08-01
The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment with strong financial performance, strategic partnerships, and promising growth projects. The Q&A session further supports this with efficient cost management, robust operational improvements, and potential shareholder returns through dividends or buybacks. Additionally, the company shows adaptability in its product mix strategy and confidence in achieving production targets. Despite some uncertainties, the overall outlook is optimistic, suggesting a positive stock price movement in the short term.
Vale SA (VALE) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-04-25
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. Strong shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, along with reduced cash costs, are positive. However, the decrease in EBITDA due to falling iron ore prices and operational risks like higher rainfall impacting production are concerns. The Q&A session indicates cautious optimism from Chinese clients and focus on cost efficiency, but management's unclear responses on high-cost capacity cuts add uncertainty. Given these factors, the stock price is likely to remain stable, leading to a neutral prediction.
Vale SA (VALE) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-02-22
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance with increased EBITDA, reduced costs, and a robust shareholder return plan, including a new buyback program. Despite some vague responses in the Q&A, the company's strategic focus on optimizing value, cost management, and stakeholder relationships is positive. The guidance adjustments and buyback programs suggest confidence in future performance, indicating a positive stock price movement.
Vale SA (VALE) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-02-20
The earnings call reflects strong financial performance with a 9% increase in EBITDA and reduced costs, indicating efficiency. The approval of dividends and a share buyback program suggest confidence in shareholder returns. Despite some regulatory and supply chain risks, the company's strategic focus on cost efficiency and competitive positioning is reassuring. The Q&A section indicates a cautious but flexible approach to market challenges. Overall, the positive financial metrics, shareholder returns, and strategic clarity outweigh concerns, suggesting a likely positive stock price movement.
Vale S.A. (VALE) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2024-10-25
The earnings call indicates mixed signals. Positive aspects include strategic growth initiatives in iron ore and energy transition metals, improved cost efficiency, and shareholder returns. However, challenges such as regulatory risks, significant Samarco reparation costs, and lower iron ore prices weigh negatively. The Q&A highlights management's focus on growth and cost reduction but lacks clarity on debt targets. The market reaction is likely to be neutral, given the balance of positive and negative factors, with no strong catalyst for significant stock movement in the short term.
Vale S.A. (VALE) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2024-07-26
The earnings call presents a mixed picture. While there are positive developments like strong EBITDA growth, record iron ore sales, and shareholder returns, there are significant concerns such as supply chain challenges, regulatory issues, and negative free cash flow. The Q&A section highlights ongoing negotiations and cautious management responses, indicating uncertainties. Given these factors, the sentiment is neutral, suggesting a stock price movement between -2% to 2% over the next two weeks.

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FAQ

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What were the key highlights of VALE’s latest earnings report for FY2025Q3?

VALE reported its FY2025Q3 earnings on 2025-10-30, showcasing a revenue of 10.42B against an estimate of 10.34B, resulting in a 0.74% surprise. The EPS was 0.63, surpassing the expected 0.48 by 31.25% . The stock experienced a 1.68% price change on the earnings day and a 3.53% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.
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How did VALE’s stock price react after the FY2025Q3 earnings release?

Following VALE’s FY2025Q3 earnings announcement on 2025-10-30, the stock price moved by 1.68% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a 3.53% change. Historically, VALE’s stock price tends to shift by an average of -1.21% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and -0.26% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.
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What are the revenue and EPS estimates for VALE for 2025/Q4?

For 2025/Q4, analysts estimate VALE’s annual revenue to reach 10.54B, while the EPS is projected at 0.59. These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates revised Revenue Revise Upward by 2.12% and EPS estimates Revise Upward by 3.92% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company’s performance.
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How does VALE’s stock price correlate with earnings forecast revisions?

The correlation between VALE’s stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock’s fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 were Revise Upward by 2.12%, while EPS estimates moved Revise Upward by 3.92% . This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.
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What should investors expect from VALE’s next earnings report?

Based on historical trends, VALE’s stock price typically moves by -1.21% in the 10 days before its earnings and -0.26% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2025/Q4 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of 0.59 and revenue of 10.54B.
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What is the sentiment in Vale SA (VALE) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary?

The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, with reduced net debt and successful portfolio strategy. The Q&A reveals optimism about dividends and strategic growth in copper production, despite some uncertainties. The positive sentiment is reinforced by Vale's proactive market strategies and cost improvements, suggesting a likely stock price increase.
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