VALE Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how VALE performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, VALE sees a +1.78% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.49% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.61%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
VALE Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
9.55B
-10.25%
-3.71%
Gross Margin
46.16%
-7.68%
-3.93%
Operating Margin
26.94%
-23.47%
-8.21%
Net Margin
25.05%
-6.81%
-11.14%
EPS
0.57
-13.64%
-12.31%
No Data Available
VALE Earnings Analysis
VALE S.A. Corporation (VALE.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
EBITDA Performance Highlights: Vales EBITDA reached $3.7 billion in the quarter, demonstrating strong operational performance despite lower iron ore prices.
Record Iron Ore Production: The company achieved the highest iron ore production since 2018, underscoring its focus on operational excellence.
Record Pellet Production Growth: Vale's pellet production reached its highest level for any quarter since 2019, increasing by 13% year-on-year.
Iron Ore Production Forecast: The company is on track to deliver between 323 to 330 million tons of iron ore for 2024, with confidence in achieving the top end of this range.
Strong Cash Flow Generation: Vale's cash flow generation remains strong, with $0.2 billion generated in the quarter, supporting its commitment to return value to shareholders.
Negative
EBITDA Decline Analysis: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) reached $3.7 billion in the quarter, indicating a decline due to lower iron ore prices.
Cash Cost Analysis: The company reported a significant increase in cash costs, with C1 cash costs at $28.6 per ton, which is 17% lower quarter-on-quarter but still reflects ongoing cost pressures.
Free Cash Flow Decline: Free cash flow generation was only $0.2 billion, primarily impacted by lower EBITDA and negative working capital adjustments.
Samarco Dam Reparation Costs: The total value of the binding terms for the full reparation of Samarco's Fundão dam collapse is BRL 170 billion, which will be divided into BRL 100 billion in cash payments over 20 years, indicating a substantial financial burden.
Increased Financial Leverage: The company has recognized an extra provision of approximately $1 billion, bringing the expanded net debt to $16.5 billion, highlighting increased financial leverage.
VALE FAQs
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VALE Earning Call Sentiment
Vale S.A. (VALE) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
VALE.N
2%Positive
The earnings call indicates mixed signals. Positive aspects include strategic growth initiatives in iron ore and energy transition metals, improved cost efficiency, and shareholder returns. However, challenges such as regulatory risks, significant Samarco reparation costs, and lower iron ore prices weigh negatively. The Q&A highlights management's focus on growth and cost reduction but lacks clarity on debt targets. The market reaction is likely to be neutral, given the balance of positive and negative factors, with no strong catalyst for significant stock movement in the short term.