OWL Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how OWL performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, OWL sees a +1.05% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +2.30% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.97%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
OWL Key Earning Data
OWL Earnings Analysis
Positive
Record Fundraising Success: We capped off a highly successful year for Blue Owl with a record quarter of fundraising, reflecting the ongoing diversification of our business and high levels of investor interest in our differentiated products.
Record Equity and Debt Raise: This brings our total equity raise in 2024 to $27.5 billion, about 75% higher than 2023, and including debt, we raised over $47 billion, also a record for us.
Capital Deployment and FRE Growth: We deployed substantial amounts of capital across the business, including a record $52 billion of gross deployment in credit, driving 26% FRE growth for the year.
Consistent FRE Growth: We have now grown FRE at least 25% each year since we've been public, despite highly inflationary periods, geopolitical events, rate volatility, and a significant slowdown in capital markets.
Resilient Revenue Sources: Approximately 90% of our management fees come from permanent capital, making our revenues highly resilient.
Management Fee Growth Potential: We have over $23 billion of AUM that will begin to pay management fees once capital is deployed, which will drive an incremental $290 million of revenue or 13% growth off our current management fees over the last 12 months.
Merger Impact on Fees: We successfully completed the merger of OTF and OTF2 in March, which will drive approximately $135 million of incremental annual management fees for Blue Owl.
Management Fee Growth: We have grown our management fees by 31%, our FRE by 23%, and our DE by 20% on an LTM basis.
Capital Raising Success: During the first quarter, we raised over $6.5 billion with $4 billion raised in private wealth, primarily across our perpetually distributed products and GP stakes.
Direct Lending Origination Surge: In direct lending, gross origination was nearly $13 billion and over $4.5 billion for the quarter, more than double our net origination in the prior quarter.
Direct Lending Strategy Resilience: Our direct lending strategy was built for these types of markets, volatility and uncertainty, and we feel very good about the credit quality of our portfolio with a 13 basis point average annual realized loss rate.
Strong Alternative Credit Returns: We are seeing very resilient performance across asset-based categories in alternative credit, with portfolio gross returns of 6.1% in the first quarter and 15.2% over the last 12 months.
Record Commitments in Real Assets: In real assets, we had a record quarter of commitments totaling $3.8 billion, bringing commitments over the last 12 months to $8 billion at a roughly 8% cap rate on average.
Fund 3 Final Close: We held our final close from Fund 3 in April, reaching its hard cap of $7 billion, nearly double the size of the prior fund.
Negative
Direct Lending Decline: The company reported a decline in net origination in direct lending, with only $4.5 billion for the quarter, which is a significant drop compared to previous quarters.
Fundraising Amid Economic Uncertainty: Despite a record quarter of fundraising, the overall economic environment remains uncertain, with concerns about inflation, economic growth, and potential recession affecting investor sentiment.
Global Trade Challenges Ahead: The company acknowledged that the flow of global trade and its pricing may be substantially altered going forward, indicating potential challenges ahead.
Consumer Demand Uncertainty: There is a noted lack of concrete answers regarding consumer demand and economic growth, which could impact future performance.
Management Fee Uncertainty: The company has a significant amount of AUM that is yet to pay management fees, which may create uncertainty in future revenue streams until capital is deployed.
Credit Quality Risk: While the company has seen strong performance in its portfolios, there is still a risk of credit quality deterioration in the broader market, which could affect their investments.
Market Volatility Challenges: The company is facing challenges in the market due to elevated volatility, which may impact their ability to maintain growth rates in the future.
OWL FAQs
How does OWL typically perform around its earnings report dates?
OWL's stock performance around earnings reports can vary, but historical data shows specific patterns, such as a +1.05% change leading up to the report and a +2.30% change in the 10 days following the release.
Is Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
OWL Earning Call Sentiment
Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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