VALE Stock Price Prediction

Vale SA

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9.360

+0.060(+0.650%)

Overview
Forecast
Valuation

Should I Buy Vale SA Stock?

Based on our evaluation of the five key dimensions—Technical Signals, Moving Average trends, Short Sell Data, Similar Chart Pattern Matching and Seasonality Analysis—we have identified the following insights. VALE has several negative signals and is within a falling trend, so we believe it will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Our analysis conclusion for this stock is a Strong Sell candidate.

VALE stock price ended at $9.36 on Friday, after rising 0.65%

The Vale SA stock price increased by 0.65% on the last trading day (09 May 2025), rising from 9.35 to 9.36. Throughout the last trading session, the stock experienced a fluctuation of 0.91% , ranging from a day low of $9.305 to a day high of 9.39. The price has declined in 4 of the last 10 days, resulting in a total change of -1.47% during this period. On the last day, trading volume increase by -8.77M shares, with the rising prices. This could serve as an early warning, indicating that risk may slightly increase in the coming days. In total, 19.63M shares were traded, amounting to approximately 183.63M.

VALE Technical Signals

VALE(Vale SA Corp) has 2 buy signals and 3 sell signals now. The current trend is consolidation starting from 2025-04-29. The total price change during this trend is -2.50%. Recently, the price has increased but the volume has decreased, indicating a potential warning signal. The average turnover of VALE over the last 5 trading days is 190.62M. Overall, the technical indicator signals lean more toward a Neutral outlook in the mid-term.

VALE Moving Average Analysis

Vale SA's overall moving average trend leans more bearish as of Saturday, May 10, 2025, with 3 negative signals and 1 positive signal. In the mid-term, the SMA_20 being below the SMA_60 signals a strong bearish trend. There will be some resistance from the lines at $9.671613458466668, and $9.847333496666668. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. There will be some support from the lines at $9.103053334866667, and $8.927333296666667. A break-down below any of these levels will issue sell signals.

VALE Short Selling Analysis

The short sale ratio of Vale SA(VALE) as of 08 May 2025 is 20.88%, rising from last trading day. With increasing price from 9.22 to 9.30. The short sell activity indicate that short sellers may be anticipating a price reversion.

Technical Signal

Technical Signals Summary

Neutral

Sell

Buy

Moving Average

Swing

Positive

Stock Price Above SMA_5

Short Term

Negative

SMA_5 Below SMA_20

Mid Term

Negative

SMA_20 Below SMA_60

Long Term

Negative

SMA_60 Below SMA_200

Short Selling

Close Price

Short Sale Ratio

Short Sale Volume

2 Bullish Signals

When Value satisfies Signal, Indicator signals Bullish

Indicators

Signal

Value

Meaning

Moving Average

Price crosses above 5-day SMA

Bullish

Moving Average

Price crosses above 20-day SMA

Bullish

3 Bearish Signals

When Value satisfies Signal, Indicator signals Bearish

Indicators

Signal

Value

Meaning

Awesome Oscillator (5, 34)

AO_5_34 < 0

-0.119

Bearish

Momentum (10 days)

MOM_10 < 0

-0.14

Bearish

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (12, 26, 9)

MACD_12_26_9 < 0

-0.0325

Bearish

VALE Price Prediction & Forecast by Similar Chart Analysis

Based on historical patterns and backtesting of stocks with similar movements to Vale SA(VALE), our algorithm predicts VALE's 1-month price at $9.09, with an -3.03%downwardshift. Using a similarity score up to 95.99%and other factors, This forecast updates weekly, adjusting for significant deviations.

Similar Chart

The price prediction chart for Vale SA (VALE.N) stock, as of Sunday, May 4, 2025 , forecasts a -3.03% change over the next month, based on its high correlation with OCSL.O stock patterns. The similarity between their price movements over the analyzed periods is 95.99%. The right panel lists other stocks with similar price patterns. This prediction is updated every week.

VALE

Future prediction

Up: -3.03%

OCSL

Down: -3.03%Similarity: 95.99%

Name

Similarity

Up/Down

OCSL.O

95.99%

-3.03%

SCM.N

95.73%

+1.23%

GBDC.O

95.59%

+0.91%

CENX.O

95.56%

-8.16%

OBDC.N

95.35%

-1.28%

GEF.N

95.26%

+0.92%

SYY.N

95.17%

+7.75%

BBDC.N

95.07%

-2.17%

SEIC.O

95.00%

+5.78%

MYRG.O

94.99%

+0.28%

VALE Seasonality Analysis

Based on VALE's historical stock price data across all years, the probability of a positive return in May is45.45%, suggesting it maynotbe an ideal month to invest in VALE. In contrast,Februaryoffers the highest probability of positive returns at72.73%, making it a potentially strong month for investment.

However, this is only a prediction based on one method, and a comprehensive assessment of the stock's future trend should consider additional factors. Our final stock price commentary incorporates three main evaluation dimensions: technical signals, Moving Average trends, and similar chart pattern matching, with the first two dimensions carrying the primary weight to ensure a more robust and accurate forecast.

Monthly Seasonality

The radar chart shows that buying Vale SA (VALE.N) stock in February has the highest probability of a positive return (72.73%), while August has the lowest probability (10.00%).

Performance Seasonality

The chart shows Vale SA. (VALE)'s annual stock price return for the past three years, helping you analyze price trends and identify recurring trends on an annual basis.