UGP Valuation

Ultrapar Participacoes SA

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3.650

-0.05(-1.351%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

UGP Relative Valuation

UGP's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, UGP is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) is now in the Undervalued zone, suggesting that its current forward PE ratio of 10.73 is considered Undervalued compared with the five-year average of 15.44. The fair price of Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) is between 4.25 to 7.27 according to relative valuation methord. Compared to the current price of 3.65 USD , Ultrapar Participacoes SA is Undervalued By 14.06%.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

4.25-7.27

Current Price：3.65

14.06%

Undervalued

10.73

Trailing

Forward

5.96

EV/EBITDA

Ultrapar Participacoes SA. (UGP) has a current EV/EBITDA of 5.96. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 6.70. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 3.87, Undervalued between 3.87 and 5.29, Fairly Valued between 8.11 and 5.29, Overvalued between 8.11 and 9.52, and Strongly Overvalued above 9.52. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 5.96 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

8.64

EV/EBIT

Ultrapar Participacoes SA. (UGP) has a current EV/EBIT of 8.64. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 10.71. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 4.51, Undervalued between 4.51 and 7.61, Fairly Valued between 13.81 and 7.61, Overvalued between 13.81 and 16.91, and Strongly Overvalued above 16.91. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 8.64 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

0.15

Ultrapar Participacoes SA. (UGP) has a current PS of 0.15. The 5-year average PS is 0.16. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.07, Undervalued between 0.07 and 0.11, Fairly Valued between 0.20 and 0.11, Overvalued between 0.20 and 0.24, and Strongly Overvalued above 0.24. The current Forward PS of 0.15 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

5.98

P/OCF

Ultrapar Participacoes SA. (UGP) has a current P/OCF of 5.98. The 5-year average P/OCF is 8.07. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 2.19, Undervalued between 2.19 and 5.13, Fairly Valued between 11.01 and 5.13, Overvalued between 11.01 and 13.96, and Strongly Overvalued above 13.96. The current Forward P/OCF of 5.98 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

12.98

P/FCF

Ultrapar Participacoes SA. (UGP) has a current P/FCF of 12.98. The 5-year average P/FCF is -7.46. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -223.36, Undervalued between -223.36 and -115.41, Fairly Valued between 100.49 and -115.41, Overvalued between 100.49 and 208.44, and Strongly Overvalued above 208.44. The current Forward P/FCF of 12.98 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.32. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 1.56 , the current P/B ratio is approximately -15.70% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 1.69, the current P/B ratio is about -22.29% higher. Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately 9.45%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of 9.44%, the current FCF yield is approximately 0.16% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of 8.52% , the current FCF yield is about 10.97% lower.

1.32

P/B

Median3y

1.56

Median5y

1.69

9.45

FCF Yield

Median3y

9.44

Median5y

8.52

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for UGP's competitors is 1.28, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Ultrapar Participacoes SA Corp (UGP) exhibits a P/S ratio of 0.15, which is -88.38% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of -3.09%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

UGP.N

Ultrapar Participacoes SA

Caseys General Stores Inc

DICK'S Sporting Goods Inc

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc

0.58

3.36%

12.87B

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of UGP decreased by 3.29% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an increase in Margin Expansion from 1.52 to 3.44.

The secondary factor is the Revenue Growth, contributed -3.09%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of UGP in the past 1 year is driven by Margin Expansion. Which is more sustainable.

-3.09%

6.20B → 6.01B

Revenue Growth

126.32%

1.52 → 3.44

Margin Expansion

-126.52%

-28.34 → 7.52

P/E Change

-3.29%