UGP Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how UGP performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, UGP sees a +1.12% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -4.35% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -1.34%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
UGP Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
6.06B
-10.16%
-4.94%
Gross Margin
9.14%
-0.44%
41.71%
Operating Margin
5.78%
8.04%
89.51%
Net Margin
2.49%
-25.23%
25.76%
EPS
0.12
-40.00%
9.09%
No Data Available
UGP Earnings Analysis
Ultrapar Participacoes SA Corporation (UGP.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Operational Cash Flow Strength: Strong operational cash flow generation allowed for increased investment levels while maintaining comfortable financial leverage.
Major Capital Investment: Largest capital allocation in a single asset in the last 10 years with a RMB 1.8 billion investment to acquire a 42% stake in Hidrovias Brazil.
Strategic Acquisition of Witzler: Acquisition of Witzler for RMB 124 million, enhancing the portfolio of energy solutions at Ultragas.
Governance Model Enhancement: New governance model implemented for greater agility, autonomy, and accountability across portfolio companies.
Increased Dividend Payment: Board approved additional dividend payment of RMB 493 million, totaling RMB 769 million in dividends for 2024.
Operational Cash Generation: Operational cash generation of RMB 3.736 million in 2024, with significant payments received from the sale of Oxiteno and Extrafarma totaling RMB 977 million.
Capital Expenditure Increase: Increased capital expenditures (CapEx) totaling RMB 2,213 million in 2024, a 14% increase over 2023, driven by higher investments in Ultracargo.
EBITDA Growth Analysis: Ultragaz reported a 9% growth in recurring EBITDA year-over-year, driven by higher volume and better sales mix despite increased costs.
EBITDA Growth and Margin: Ultracargo's EBITDA grew by 9% year-over-year, reflecting higher cubic meters sold and improved sales mix, with an EBITDA margin of 60%.
2025 Investment Plan Announcement: Investment plan for 2025 announced, totaling RMB 2.542 billion, with approximately 60% allocated to expansion projects.
Negative
EBITDA Decline Analysis: Recurring EBITDA decreased by 23% in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, primarily due to lower EBITDA at Ipiranga and a loss from Hidrovias.
EBITDA Decline Analysis: Annual recurring EBITDA fell by 4% in 2024, attributed to lower performance at Ipiranga and losses from Hidrovias.
EBITDA Decline and Margin Pressure: Ipiranga's recurring EBITDA dropped by 27% year-over-year in Q4 2024, reflecting reduced margins due to unlawful practices and higher inventory levels.
EBITDA Decline Due to Challenges: Ipiranga's total EBITDA for 2024 was down 6% year-over-year, again impacted by industry unlawful practices and increased inventory levels.
Cash Generation Decline: Operational cash generation decreased by 2% in 2024 compared to 2023, driven by higher working capital investments.
Net Debt Increase: Net debt increased by BRL 2.4 billion from December 2023 to December 2024, primarily due to investments and acquisitions.
Fuel Industry Challenges: The fuel industry in Brazil is facing significant challenges from unlawful practices, including tax evasion and non-compliance with biodiesel regulations, which negatively impact market share for compliant companies.
Market Share Decline: The market share of lawful companies decreased by 2.9 percentage points in 2024, indicating a growing challenge from non-compliant competitors.
G&A Expense Increase: Ultragaz's G&A expenses rose by 16% in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, driven by higher personnel costs and legal expenses.
Rising Costs and Expenses: Combined costs and expenses for Ultracargo increased by 11% in Q4 2024, attributed to higher maintenance and personnel expenses.
UGP FAQs
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UGP Earning Call Sentiment
Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call Transcript
UGP.N
4.03%Positive
The earnings call summary presents mixed results: while Ultragaz and Ultracargo show growth, Ipiranga's performance is hindered by unlawful practices. The Q&A highlights potential improvements in margins if regulatory issues are resolved, but uncertainties remain. The company's strategic investments and buyback program are positives, yet rising net debt and leverage ratio pose concerns. With a market cap of approximately $4.4 billion, the stock is likely to experience limited movement, resulting in a neutral prediction over the next two weeks.
