Should You Buy Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
UGP is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The trend is bullish, but the stock is short-term overbought (RSI≈80) and sitting just below resistance (~4.85). With no Intellectia buy signals today and momentum starting to cool (MACD histogram still positive but contracting), the risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback toward ~4.52 support rather than chasing at ~4.77–4.78.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, confirming an uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0738) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
Overbought/mean-reversion risk: RSI_6 at ~80.3 signals an overbought condition—often associated with near-term pullbacks or sideways consolidation.
Levels: Pivot support ~4.521 (first key dip-buy area), deeper supports ~4.194 and ~3.992. Near-term resistance R1 ~4.847 (current price is close), then R2 ~5.049.
Price context: Regular session -1.44% and slightly weaker pre/post market indicates some near-term selling pressure.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: One notable change—on 2025-11-12, Bradesco BBI upgraded Ultrapar to Outperform from Neutral with a R$30 price target.
Wall Street-style pros: improving quarterly growth and margin trend; supportive upgrade.
Cons: limited breadth of recent analyst updates in the provided data, and near-term technicals look stretched, making timing unfavorable for an immediate buy.
Wall Street analysts forecast UGP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for UGP is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Wall Street analysts forecast UGP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for UGP is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0
Current: 4.850
0
Current: 4.850
