NIO Should I Buy
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Given the investor's beginner level, long-term strategy, and available capital, NIO is not a strong buy at this time. While there are some positive catalysts, the overall sentiment, financial performance, and technical indicators suggest a cautious approach. A 'hold' recommendation is more suitable until clearer signs of recovery or growth emerge.
The MACD is above 0 and positively contracting, suggesting mild bullish momentum. RSI is neutral at 56.275, and moving averages are converging, indicating no clear trend. Key support is at 4.673, and resistance is at 5.155. The stock is trading near its pivot level of 4.914, showing limited immediate upside.
Nio set a single-day record of 146,649 battery swaps, indicating strong demand during the Spring Festival holiday.
Deliveries are expected to rise significantly in 2025, with the company projecting its first profit in Q4
Global EV sales surged 21% in 2025, highlighting strong market demand.
Morgan Stanley reduced its stake in Nio by 6%, reflecting cautious sentiment.
Analysts have lowered price targets and earnings forecasts due to weaker margins, slowing sales, and intense competition.
The company reported a significant YoY drop in net income (-28.80%) and EPS (-39.60%) in Q3 2025.
In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 16.71% YoY to RMB 21.79B, but net income dropped by 28.80% YoY to -RMB 3.66B. EPS also declined by 39.60% YoY to -1.51. Gross margin improved to 13.88%, up 29.12% YoY, but overall profitability remains a concern.
Analyst sentiment is mixed. JPMorgan lowered its price target to $7, citing weaker margins and falling sales. Freedom Capital initiated coverage with a Buy rating and an $8.70 target, citing strategic alignment with U.S. government objectives. Barclays raised its target to $4 but maintained an Underweight rating. Overall, analysts are cautious due to weak volume outlook and intense competition.
