Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and market context, here's a concise analysis of MTH stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is showing bearish momentum in the short term, with price declining from $79.05 to $73.25 over the past week. Key technical indicators:

• RSI (14) at 37.26 indicates oversold conditions
• MACD is negative at -1.87 with bearish divergence
• Price trading below both 5-day ($73.56) and 10-day ($74.50) moving averages

Fundamental Analysis

MTH ranks 10th among consumer discretionary stocks according to analysts. The company benefits from:

• Favorable demographics and housing undersupply
• Strong geographic diversity in high-growth regions
• Steady operational results with 2% YoY growth in home closings

However, recent challenges include:

• 3% decline in home closing revenue due to lower average sales prices
• Softer demand environment impacting order volumes
• Higher mortgage rates affecting affordability

Analyst Sentiment

Recent analyst actions:

• Evercore ISI: Maintained Buy rating (Jan 31, 2025)
• Keefe Bruyette: Maintained Market Perform, lowered PT to $90 from $97

Price Targets

Based on technical and fundamental factors:

• Support levels: $71.81 (Fibonacci S1)
• Resistance levels: $77.91 (Fibonacci R1)
• Current price ($73.25) suggests limited downside risk

Recommendation

SELL. The combination of technical weakness, challenging housing market conditions, and declining margins suggests better opportunities elsewhere. The stock may see further pressure in the near term until housing market conditions improve.

Based on the available data and market analysis, here is the price prediction for MTH stock in 2025:

Technical Analysis

The technical indicators show:

• RSI(14) at 37.26 indicates oversold conditions
• MACD is bearish with -1.87 and negative divergence
• Stock is trading below all major moving averages (5,10,20,60,200-day)
• Current price ($73.25) is near the lower Bollinger Band ($67.37), suggesting potential support

Fundamental Drivers

According to recent analyst reports:

• Meritage Homes benefits from:
  • Favorable demographics
  • Systematic shortage of housing in the US
  • Strong local market positions
  • Geographic diversity in high-growth regions

Price Target Scenarios for 2025

Bullish Case ($90):

• Interest rate cuts materialize
• Housing demand rebounds
• Company maintains margins through cost controls Probability: 35%

Base Case ($82):

• Moderate interest rate environment
• Stable but not robust housing market
• Some margin pressure from costs Probability: 45%

Bearish Case ($65):

• Interest rates remain elevated
• Housing market weakness persists
• Margin compression from higher costs Probability: 20%

Conclusion The most likely scenario points to MTH reaching $82 by end of 2025, representing a ~12% upside from current levels. This is supported by the company's strong market position and potential interest rate cuts, though near-term headwinds remain.

The S1 support level for MTH Stock is $71.75 ,The R1 resistant level for MTH Stock is $75.73.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-21, the price of MTH Stock was $73.6.

The target price for MTH Stock according to analyst rating is 98.50, with the highest price target at 118.00 and the lowest at 76.50. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on MTH Stock overall.

The market cap of MTH is $5.3B.

Based on the provided data and recent market activity, here's a concise analysis of MTH's valuation:

MTH is currently fairly valued considering several key metrics:

Valuation Analysis:

• P/E ratio of 8.74 for FY2023 indicates the stock is trading at reasonable earnings multiple
• EV/EBITDA of 13.1 suggests slightly elevated valuation compared to 2022's 2.8
• Price-to-book ratio of 1.38 remains reasonable for the homebuilding sector

Technical Indicators:

• RSI-14 at 37.26 indicates the stock is approaching oversold territory
• MACD showing bearish momentum with -1.87 reading
• Trading below all major moving averages (5,10,20,60,200-day)

Recent Performance:

• Stock closed at $73.25 on Feb 19, 2025, down 1.01%
• Currently trading near Fibonacci support level of $71.81
• Volume of 1,003,949 shares indicates moderate trading activity

Market Position:

• Strong operational performance with record customer satisfaction scores
• Management projects FY2025 revenue of $6.6B-$6.9B, showing confidence in growth
• Evercore ISI maintains Buy rating with $117 price target, suggesting significant upside potential

Based on these factors, MTH appears reasonably valued at current levels, with technical indicators suggesting a potential buying opportunity as it approaches support levels.

Meritage Homes Corporation is a designer and builder of single-family attached and detached homes. Its segments include Homebuilding and Financial Services. The Homebuilding segment is engaged in the business of acquiring and developing land, constructing homes, marketing and selling those homes and providing warranty and customer services. The Financial Services segment offer title and escrow, mortgage, and insurance services. It has operations in three regions: West, Central and East, which are comprised of 10 states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Utah, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. These three regions are its principal homebuilding reporting segments. Its homebuilding activities are conducted under the name of Meritage Homes in each of its homebuilding markets. It also operates Carefree Title Agency, Inc., its wholly owned title company, which provides title insurance and closing/settlement services to its homebuyers in certain states.

Based on the available data and market analysis, here is the price prediction for MTH stock by 2030:

Technical Analysis

• Current price level: $73.25 (as of Feb 19, 2025)
• Stock is showing a clear downward trend since October 2024, breaking below key support levels
• RSI at 37.26 indicates slightly oversold conditions but not extreme

Fundamental Drivers

• Strong financial position with healthy margins (Gross Margin: 18.63%, Net Margin: 12.29%)
• Low P/E ratio of 7.17x indicates potential undervaluation
• Solid ROE of 16.12% demonstrates efficient capital utilization
• Housing market fundamentals remain supportive with systematic shortage

2030 Price Target: $125-135 The target represents ~70-85% upside from current levels, driven by:

• Continued execution in entry-level/first-time homebuyer segment
• Geographic expansion in high-growth US regions
• Favorable demographics and persistent housing undersupply

MTH has a total of 1838 employees.