Should You Buy GFL Environmental Inc (GFL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
43.230
1 Day change
-0.85%
52 Week Range
52.000
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy GFL now for a beginner long-term investor. The stock is trading near its pivot/support zone (~43.4–44.1) with improving (but not overheated) momentum, solid latest-quarter growth, and broadly bullish Wall Street targets implying meaningful upside from current levels. I would enter at today’s price rather than waiting for a “perfect” dip.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: Last close 44.1, sitting just above the pivot (43.424). Near-term resistance is R1 44.872 (then R2 45.766); supports are S1 41.976 and S2 41.082.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.211) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum exists but is slowing. RSI(6) ~50.24 is neutral (not overbought/oversold). Moving averages are converging, consistent with consolidation rather than a strong trend.
Interpretation: This looks like a stable consolidation slightly above key support. For a long-term buyer, the current area is an acceptable entry, with a near-term technical “ceiling” around 44.9–45.8.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment read: Put-heavy positioning (both open interest and volume) skews cautious/bearish or indicates elevated hedging demand.
Volatility: IV percentile (6.8) and IV rank (4.5) are very low, implying options are priced with relatively low fear. That combination (put-heavy + low IV) often looks like systematic hedging rather than panic.
Liquidity/flow: Today’s option volume is small (20 total contracts) but compared with its recent average, volume is elevated (today vs avg 30D ~48.78%), so the put-lean may be worth respecting for near-term sentiment.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
shows strong YoY growth (revenue +9.01%, net income +13.89%, EPS +21.74%) and improving gross margin.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Options positioning is put-skewed (high put/call ratios), which can signal near-term caution and can coincide with choppy trading.
Some price targets were trimmed recently (e.g., Citi and Scotiabank), implying slightly more conservative near-term assumptions.
Execution/FCF visibility: Goldman’s Neutral initiation highlighted the need for clearer free cash flow visibility (an execution risk).
Near-term technical overhead: The stock is approaching resistance around 44.9–45.8, which can cap immediate upside even if the long-term story is intact.
News flow: No notable news catalysts in the past week to drive an immediate breakout.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Growth trends: Revenue rose to 1,694,200,000 (+9.01% YoY). Net income increased to 102,500,000 (+13.89% YoY). EPS increased to 0.28 (+21.74% YoY). Gross margin improved to 21.85 (+14.40% YoY). Overall, profitability is improving faster than revenue, which is a constructive long-term signal.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Ratings skew positive (Buy/Outperform/Overweight dominate), but several firms slightly lowered price targets in January (e.g., Scotiabank 58→57; Citi 58→56), suggesting modestly tempered expectations rather than a thesis break.
Where targets cluster: Many targets are in the mid-to-high $50s (UBS $60, Citi $56, Scotiabank $57) with one Neutral at $50 (Goldman). This still implies upside from ~44.
Wall Street pros: Pricing power, acquisitive growth runway, and solid operating performance.
Wall Street cons: Execution/free-cash-flow visibility and integration/forecast risk (implied by Neutral coverage and target trims).
Influential/political buying/selling: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders show neutral recent activity.
Wall Street analysts forecast GFL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GFL is 55.3 USD with a low forecast of 34.03 USD and a high forecast of 64.06 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GFL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GFL is 55.3 USD with a low forecast of 34.03 USD and a high forecast of 64.06 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 43.600
Low
34.03
Averages
55.3
High
64.06
Current: 43.600
Low
34.03
Averages
55.3
High
64.06
Scotiabank
Konark Gupta
Outperform
maintain
$58 -> $57
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
Reason
Scotiabank
Konark Gupta
Price Target
$58 -> $57
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Scotiabank analyst Konark Gupta lowered the firm's price target on GFL Environmental to $57 from $58 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for Transportation & Industrials stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. The firm currently sees an upside risk to market expectations for defense companies and a downside risk for freight carriers. Scotiabank names GFL Environmental as one of its top picks for the year.
Citi
Buy
maintain
$58 -> $56
2026-01-16
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$58 -> $56
2026-01-16
maintain
Buy
Reason
Citi lowered the firm's price target on GFL Environmental to $56 from $58 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the waste services group as part of a Q4 preview. It trimmed estimates but rolled forward valuations to 2027 numbers. The analyst's top pick is WM.
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