GFL Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how GFL performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, GFL sees a +2.60% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.10% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.21%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
GFL Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
2.01B
6.60%
-2.20%
Gross Margin
20.36%
5.93%
5.17%
Operating Margin
9.08%
11.00%
14.79%
Net Margin
5.49%
465.98%
-123.94%
EPS
0.23
--
-117.56%
No Data Available
GFL Earnings Analysis
GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares Corporation (GFL.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Adjusted EBITDA Surge: 1. Strong Adjusted EBITDA Growth: GFL reported nearly 20% adjusted EBITDA growth in Q3 2024, demonstrating continued operational strength and effective value creation strategies.
Record EBITDA Margin Achievement: 2. Record Adjusted EBITDA Margin: The company achieved an all-time high adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.1%, reflecting a 300 basis point improvement over the previous year, driven by disciplined pricing and operational efficiencies.
Quarterly Revenue Surge: 3. Significant Revenue Growth: Consolidated revenue for the quarter reached $2.015 billion, with solid waste revenue growing by 11.3% when excluding divestiture impacts, supported by a 6% increase in solid waste pricing.
Capital Investment Strategy: 4. Robust Capital Deployment: GFL deployed $96 million into incremental growth investments during the quarter, primarily in recycling and RNG infrastructure, with plans for further investments in 2025.
Historic Low Net Leverage: 5. Lowest Net Leverage in History: The company ended the quarter with a net leverage ratio of 4.05, the lowest in GFL's history, underscoring its commitment to capital allocation and deleveraging targets.
Negative
Commodity Revenue Decline: 1. Declining Revenue from Commodities: Third quarter revenues from commodity sales decreased due to lower prices, contributing to a revenue headwind of approximately $5 million to $10 million compared to guidance.
Solid Waste Volume Decline: 2. Volume Decline in Solid Waste: Solid waste volumes fell by 0.8% in Q3, despite a 6% increase in pricing, indicating challenges in volume recovery amidst ongoing shedding initiatives.
Environmental Services Revenue Decline: 3. Environmental Services Revenue Impact: Environmental Services revenue growth was only 3% year-over-year, significantly affected by lower used motor oil pricing and tough comparisons from a large-scale event in the prior year.
Cost of Risk Impact: 4. Increased Cost of Risk: The adjusted EBITDA margins were impacted by a dilutive margin effect from increased costs of risk associated with recent M&A activities, despite overall margin expansion in the segment.
High Net Leverage Concerns: 5. High Net Leverage: The company ended the quarter with a net leverage ratio of 4.05, which, while the lowest in GFL's history, still indicates a high level of debt relative to earnings, raising concerns about financial flexibility.
GFL FAQs
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GFL Earning Call Sentiment
GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
GFL.N
-2.98%Positive
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate strong financial performance, with increased revenue and margins, and a positive outlook on future EBITDA from EPR and RNG. The planned $6 billion share buyback is a positive catalyst. Despite some risks, such as regulatory and M&A integration, the overall sentiment is positive, driven by effective capital deployment and financial strategy. The stock price is likely to rise 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
