Should I Buy CIVI? CIVI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Civitas Resources Inc (CIVI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

27.380

1 Day change

-1.37%

52 Week Range

51.760

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/29

Civitas Resources Inc (CIVI) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner, long-term investor with $50,000-$100,000 available. The stock is facing multiple headwinds, including declining financial performance, mixed analyst ratings, and a lack of strong technical or proprietary trading signals. While the pending merger with SM Energy could unlock future value, the current price trend and financial metrics do not provide a compelling entry point for long-term investment.

Technical Analysis

The MACD is positive but contracting, RSI is neutral at 53.282, and moving averages are converging, indicating no clear trend. Key support and resistance levels are close to the current price, with the pivot at 27.404. The stock is trading near its support level, but no strong breakout or reversal signals are present.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

The pending merger with SM Energy could create value through synergies and operational efficiencies. Analysts like KeyBanc and Mizuho have expressed optimism about the merger's potential to drive free cash flow and deleveraging. Additionally, the broader energy sector is expected to improve in 2026, which could benefit CIVI.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Civitas Resources is being removed from the S&P MidCap 400, which could reduce institutional investor interest. Hedge funds are selling the stock, with a significant increase in selling activity over the last quarter. Financial performance has been weak, with YoY declines in revenue (-8.18%), net income (-40.16%), EPS (-33.89%), and gross margin (-7.72%). Analysts have mixed ratings, with some downgrades and reduced price targets, reflecting uncertainty around the merger and operational execution.

Financial Performance

In Q3 2025, Civitas Resources reported declining financials: Revenue dropped to $1.168 billion (-8.18% YoY), Net Income fell to $177 million (-40.16% YoY), EPS decreased to $1.99 (-33.89% YoY), and Gross Margin dropped to 42.81% (-7.72% YoY). These metrics indicate weakening profitability and operational performance.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analyst sentiment is mixed. Morgan Stanley and UBS maintain neutral ratings with reduced price targets, while Piper Sandler downgraded the stock due to concerns about the SM Energy merger. Mizuho remains optimistic, raising its price target to $55, citing the merger as a meaningful opportunity. However, the overall trend in price targets has been downward, reflecting cautious sentiment.

11 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CIVI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CIVI is 35 USD with a low forecast of 27 USD and a high forecast of 55 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

9 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 27.760

Low

Averages

High

Current: 27.760

Low

Averages

High

Morgan Stanley

Equal Weight

downgrade

$36 -> $33

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$36 -> $33

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Civitas Resources to $33 from $36 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm marked its 2026-27 oil price deck for strip as of January 7 in conjunction with its Q4 preview for the E&Ps, oil majors and Canadian producers. The firm expects "fairly clean" Q4 operational updates but lighter cash flow from price realizations, the analyst tells investors in the preview.

UBS

Neutral

maintain

$27 -> $29

2025-12-12

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$27 -> $29

2025-12-12

maintain

Neutral

Reason

UBS raised the firm's price target on Civitas Resources to $29 from $27 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. After three years of limited gains, the Energy sector appears positioned for a stronger 2026, supported by improving oil and natural gas outlooks, M&A-driven value creation, cost and capex efficiencies, emerging OFS opportunities, and attractive valuations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Natural gas E&Ps are favored, though positive momentum is expected broadly across Oil E&Ps and OFS, UBS adds.

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CIVI Should I Buy

CIVI Should I Buy

Should You Buy Civitas Resources Inc (CIVI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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