CENX Should I Buy
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Century Aluminum Co (CENX) is not a strong buy at this moment for a beginner investor with a long-term focus. While there are positive catalysts such as rising aluminum prices and the company's expansion projects, the recent technical indicators, financial performance, and insider/hedge fund selling suggest caution. The stock may be better suited for monitoring rather than immediate investment.
The MACD is negatively expanding (-0.742), RSI is neutral at 36.369, and moving averages are converging, indicating no clear trend. The stock is trading near its support level (S1: 58.985), but the overall technical indicators suggest a bearish or neutral sentiment.
Aluminum prices surged past $3,600 per tonne, with potential to rise further.
Century Aluminum's Mt. Holly plant expansion and new smelter partnership with Emirates Global Aluminum are expected to boost production capacity.
Analysts have raised price targets significantly, with the highest target at $86.
Hedge funds and insiders are heavily selling, with insider selling up 4851.15% in the last month.
The stock dropped 5.10% in the regular market session, indicating weak sentiment.
Financial performance in Q4 2025 showed a significant drop in net income (-95.33% YoY) and EPS (-95.35% YoY), despite a slight revenue increase.
In Q4 2025, revenue increased by 0.44% YoY to $633.7M, but net income dropped by 95.33% YoY to $2M. EPS also fell by 95.35% YoY to $0.02. However, gross margin improved significantly, up 53.73% YoY to 12.99%.
Analysts are optimistic, with multiple firms raising price targets recently. Wells Fargo raised its target to $77, BMO Capital to $75, and B. Riley to $86, all maintaining positive ratings (Overweight/Buy). Analysts cite strong aluminum prices and production growth as key drivers.
