Should You Buy Century Aluminum Co (CENX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
HOLD (not a good buy right now). CENX has strong long-term strategic catalysts (new U.S. smelter plan; Glencore’s large stake), but at ~$48 it’s already trading above the most recently published Street price targets ($34–$46) and is pressing near technical resistance. With hedge funds selling aggressively and near-term statistical trend odds skewing negative, the risk/reward for an impatient beginner long-term investor is not attractive at this exact price.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Direction: Overall uptrend remains intact because moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), implying price is still in a longer-term upward structure.
Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.32 (still below zero) but “negatively contracting,” which often signals downside momentum is fading, not that a new strong up-leg has started.
RSI: RSI(6) ~61.97 = mildly bullish/near-overbought-adjacent but not extreme.
Levels: Pivot ~47.53 is the key near-term line; price (~48.11) is just above it. Immediate resistance is R1 ~49.65 (then R2 ~50.95). Support is S1 ~45.42.
Near-term pattern odds (provided): Model shows higher probability of mild drawdowns over next day/week/month (roughly -3.8% / -5.5% / -5.4%), which argues against chasing here.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent Street trend: ratings are broadly bullish (Buy/Overweight/Outperform) with price targets raised/initiated (BMO raised to $34; Texas Capital initiated Buy $42; Wells Fargo raised to $46).
Wall Street pros: supportive supply/demand backdrop, U.S. policy support, and potential earnings growth from domestic expansion/value-added products.
Wall Street cons: targets (as published) sit below the current market price (~$48), implying the stock has run ahead of stated upside; execution/cost (especially power) and commodity-cycle risks remain key concerns.
Wall Street analysts forecast CENX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CENX is 40.67 USD with a low forecast of 34 USD and a high forecast of 46 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Wall Street analysts forecast CENX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CENX is 40.67 USD with a low forecast of 34 USD and a high forecast of 46 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Current: 49.000
Current: 49.000
