YPF Reports Q4 Net Loss of $649 Million Amid Revenue Decline

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

Source: seekingalpha

Updated: Feb 27 2026

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YPF-0.27%

Should l Buy YPF?

Source: seekingalpha

Financial Performance Decline: YPF reported a Q4 net loss of $649 million, more than double the $284 million loss from the previous year, with revenues falling 4% year-over-year to $4.56 billion, primarily due to fluctuating oil and petroleum derivative prices, indicating vulnerability in the company's market position.
Adjusted EBITDA Growth: Despite the increased losses, YPF's adjusted EBITDA surged 53% to $1.28 billion, slightly exceeding analysts' expectations of $1.22 billion, reflecting progress in cost control and operational efficiency amidst challenging market conditions.
Shale Production Surge: YPF's shale oil production increased by 42% year-over-year to 196,000 barrels per day, with full-year shale output rising 35% to 165,000 barrels per day, showcasing the company's strong growth potential in the shale sector, which is expected to drive future revenue growth.
Optimistic Future Outlook: YPF forecasts EBITDA for FY 2026 to be between $5.8 billion and $6.2 billion, up from $5 billion reported in 2025, while planning to increase full-year shale oil production to 215,000 barrels per day, indicating the company's confidence in future market conditions and expansion strategies.

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Analyst Views on YPF

Wall Street analysts forecast YPF stock price to rise

3 Analyst Rating

2 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 36.780

Low

39.40

Averages

41.13

High

44.00

Current: 36.780

Low

39.40

Averages

41.13

High

44.00

JPMorgan

Rodolfo Angele

Overweight

maintain

$51 -> $54

2026-02-12

Reason

JPMorgan

Rodolfo Angele

Price Target

$51 -> $54

AI Analysis

2026-02-12

maintain

Overweight

Reason

JPMorgan analyst Rodolfo Angele raised the firm's price target on YPF to $54 from $51 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares.

JPMorgan

Rodolfo Angele

Overweight

downgrade

$47 -> $44

2025-10-17

Reason

JPMorgan

Rodolfo Angele

Price Target

$47 -> $44

2025-10-17

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

JPMorgan analyst Rodolfo Angele lowered the firm's price target on YPF to $44 from $47 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The analyst updated the company's model.

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About YPF

YPF SA, also known as Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales, is an Argentina-based company in the energy sector operating a fully integrated oil and gas chain. The Company operates through the segments, including Exploration and Production, Downstream, and Corporate and Other. The Company's Exploration and Production segment includes exploration and production activities, natural gas and crude oil purchases, sales of natural gas, and to a lesser extent crude oil, to third parties and intersegment sales of crude oil, natural gas and its byproducts. The Company's Downstream segment is engaged in the refining, transport, purchase of crude oil and natural gas from third parties and intersegment sales, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, refined products, petrochemicals, electric power generation and natural gas distribution. The Company's Corporate and Other segment carries out other activities.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.

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