Weight-Loss Drug Forecasts Skyrocket To $150B As Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly Ramp Up Supply
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 29 2024
0mins
Source: Benzinga
- Global Weight-Loss Drug Market: Expected to reach $150 billion by early 2030s, up from the previous forecast of $100 billion, driven by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly medications.
- Sales Surge: Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly weight-loss drug sales are rising due to increased supply, demand, and new competitors, leading to revised sales forecasts.
- Consumer Demand: Despite limited insurance coverage, millions are paying out of pocket for weight-loss medications, reflecting a significant unmet medical need.
- Market Growth: Global spending on obesity medications estimated at $24 billion in 2023, projected to hit $131 billion by 2028 with a 27% annual growth rate.
- Significance: The weight-loss drug market is a hot topic; Novo Nordisk faces scrutiny for high drug prices, while Elon Musk predicts affordability improvements.
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Analyst Views on NVO
Wall Street analysts forecast NVO stock price to rise
8 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 43.960
Low
42.00
Averages
54.67
High
70.00
Current: 43.960
Low
42.00
Averages
54.67
High
70.00
About NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S is a global healthcare company engaged in diabetes care. The Company is also engaged in the discovery, development, manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceutical products. The Company operates through two business segments: diabetes and obesity care, and biopharmaceuticals. The Company's diabetes and obesity care segment covers insulin, GLP-1, other protein-related products, such as glucagon, protein-related delivery systems and needles, and oral anti-diabetic drugs. The Company's biopharmaceuticals segment covers the therapy areas of hemophilia care, growth hormone therapy and hormone replacement therapy. The Company also offers Saxenda product to treat obesity. It offers a range of products, including NovoLog/NovoRapid; NovoLog Mix/NovoMix; Prandin/NovoNorm; NovoSeven; Norditropin, and Vagifem. As of December 31, 2016, it marketed its products in over 180 countries. Its regional structure consists of two commercial units: North America and International Operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Eli Lilly: A Leader in the GLP-1 Market
- GLP-1 Market Leadership: Eli Lilly has quickly overtaken Novo Nordisk in the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market, with Mounjaro's sales soaring 99% and Zepbound's by 175% in 2025, demonstrating strong market demand and the company's leadership position in this sector.
- Ongoing Innovation: Eli Lilly has introduced an oral version of its GLP-1 drug, which, while facing competition from Novo Nordisk's more effective pill, avoids dietary restrictions, potentially creating a competitive edge and broadening market share.
- Strategic Acquisition Moves: With nearly two-thirds of sales coming from Mounjaro and Zepbound, Eli Lilly's management recognizes the imbalance in its product portfolio and is actively acquiring to build an infectious disease business, ensuring diverse revenue streams for the future.
- Future Growth Potential: Despite Eli Lilly's high P/E ratio, its success in the GLP-1 space, continuous innovation, and strategic acquisitions leveraging GLP-1 profits make it an attractive option for growth-oriented investors.
See More
Reasons Investors Should Consider Eli Lilly Stock
- GLP-1 Market Leader: Eli Lilly has quickly overtaken Novo Nordisk in the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market, with Mounjaro's sales growing by 99% and Zepbound's by 175% in 2025, showcasing its strong market competitiveness and future growth potential.
- Continuous Innovation: Eli Lilly has introduced an oral version of its GLP-1 drugs; while Novo Nordisk's version is more effective, Eli Lilly's avoids dietary restrictions, potentially creating a complementary market presence and expanding its market share.
- Strategic Acquisition Moves: With nearly two-thirds of its sales coming from GLP-1 drugs, Eli Lilly's management is balancing its product portfolio through acquisitions of new drug candidates, ensuring sustained revenue and profitability post-patent expiration.
- Future Growth Potential: Despite a high P/E ratio, Eli Lilly's success in the GLP-1 space, ongoing innovation, and prudent acquisition strategy position it strongly for future drug development, making it attractive to growth-oriented investors.
See More
Future Outlook for Obesity Drugs Market
- Intensifying Market Competition: At the conference in New Orleans, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk showcased their GLP-1 drugs, with Novo's Wegovy prescriptions exceeding 3 million within five months of launch, indicating that oral medications are attracting more consumers and could reshape the weight loss drug market.
- New Drug Development Updates: Structure Therapeutics and AstraZeneca shared mid-stage data, and if their GLP-1 drugs succeed in Phase 3 trials, they are expected to hit the market by 2029, further enriching market options and intensifying competition.
- Innovative Administration Methods: Pfizer's new drug shows potential for monthly administration, which could be more convenient than current weekly injections, while Amgen is testing a drug that could be administered monthly or quarterly, aiming to enhance patient adherence to treatment.
- Future Market Outlook: With approximately 2.5 billion people globally classified as overweight and 890 million as obese, the competition will intensify as new drugs continue to emerge, while Lilly and Novo are also working to improve insurance coverage for GLP-1 drugs, which is expected to attract more patients.
See More
Future Outlook for Obesity Medications
- Intensifying Market Competition: At the American Diabetes Association Scientific Sessions, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk showcased their new GLP-1 drugs, with Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill achieving over 3 million prescriptions within five months of launch, indicating the potential of oral medications to attract more patients to weight-loss treatments.
- New Drug Development Updates: Structure Therapeutics and AstraZeneca shared mid-stage data on their respective GLP-1 pills, which, if successful in Phase 3 trials, are expected to hit the market by 2029, further enriching the options available to meet the growing demand for obesity treatments.
- Innovative Treatment Frequency: Pfizer's drug, acquired through its $10 billion purchase of Metsera, shows potential for monthly injections, while Amgen is testing a drug that could be administered quarterly, significantly improving patient adherence and reducing the burden of weekly injections.
- Exploration of Emerging Therapies: Zealand Pharma's petrelintide drug demonstrated an average weight loss of nearly 11% in mid-stage trials, which, while less effective than existing medications, had fewer side effects, leading the CEO to believe that this could spark strong demand for new therapies and potentially reshape the obesity treatment market.
See More
Pfizer's New Drug Intensifies Competition in Weight Loss Market
- Pfizer's Drug Introduction: Pfizer's weight loss drug berobenatide, requiring only monthly injections, is set to compete with Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound, potentially putting market pressure on both companies.
- Clinical Trial Results: The latest phase 2b trial showed an average weight loss of 15.9%, and while Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly's drugs may perform better under clinical management, the convenience of berobenatide could attract more patients.
- Market Outlook Analysis: Morgan Stanley projects the weight loss drug market will reach $150 billion by 2035, and Pfizer's entry may weaken the pricing power of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, impacting their future revenues.
- Long-term Strategic Impact: Pfizer plans to launch multiple weight loss drugs in the coming years, and although the short-term revenue contribution may be limited, the enhanced competitiveness poses a potential threat to shareholders of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
See More
Pfizer Enters Weight Loss Drug Market with Berobenatide
- Drug Development Progress: Pfizer's weight loss drug berobenatide shows promise in its latest phase 2b trial, indicating potential for monthly injections with an average weight loss of 15.9% over 32 weeks, providing new hope for Pfizer in a competitive market.
- Increased Market Competition: With Pfizer entering the weight loss drug market, it will compete against giants like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, which reported sales of $30 billion and $13.5 billion respectively, potentially undermining the pricing power of existing products.
- Diverse Clinical Trials: Pfizer is conducting multiple clinical trials for berobenatide, including 10 trials entering phase 3, indicating accelerated investment and strategic positioning in the weight loss drug sector.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Pfizer anticipates a high single-digit revenue CAGR starting in 2029, although short-term performance may be impacted by declining COVID-19 drug sales, the potential of its weight loss drug business remains noteworthy.
See More
Eli Lilly: A Leader in the GLP-1 Market
- GLP-1 Market Leadership: Eli Lilly has quickly overtaken Novo Nordisk in the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market, with Mounjaro's sales soaring 99% and Zepbound's by 175% in 2025, demonstrating strong market demand and the company's leadership position in this sector.
- Ongoing Innovation: Eli Lilly has introduced an oral version of its GLP-1 drug, which, while facing competition from Novo Nordisk's more effective pill, avoids dietary restrictions, potentially creating a competitive edge and broadening market share.
- Strategic Acquisition Moves: With nearly two-thirds of sales coming from Mounjaro and Zepbound, Eli Lilly's management recognizes the imbalance in its product portfolio and is actively acquiring to build an infectious disease business, ensuring diverse revenue streams for the future.
- Future Growth Potential: Despite Eli Lilly's high P/E ratio, its success in the GLP-1 space, continuous innovation, and strategic acquisitions leveraging GLP-1 profits make it an attractive option for growth-oriented investors.
See More
Reasons Investors Should Consider Eli Lilly Stock
- GLP-1 Market Leader: Eli Lilly has quickly overtaken Novo Nordisk in the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market, with Mounjaro's sales growing by 99% and Zepbound's by 175% in 2025, showcasing its strong market competitiveness and future growth potential.
- Continuous Innovation: Eli Lilly has introduced an oral version of its GLP-1 drugs; while Novo Nordisk's version is more effective, Eli Lilly's avoids dietary restrictions, potentially creating a complementary market presence and expanding its market share.
- Strategic Acquisition Moves: With nearly two-thirds of its sales coming from GLP-1 drugs, Eli Lilly's management is balancing its product portfolio through acquisitions of new drug candidates, ensuring sustained revenue and profitability post-patent expiration.
- Future Growth Potential: Despite a high P/E ratio, Eli Lilly's success in the GLP-1 space, ongoing innovation, and prudent acquisition strategy position it strongly for future drug development, making it attractive to growth-oriented investors.
See More
Future Outlook for Obesity Drugs Market
- Intensifying Market Competition: At the conference in New Orleans, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk showcased their GLP-1 drugs, with Novo's Wegovy prescriptions exceeding 3 million within five months of launch, indicating that oral medications are attracting more consumers and could reshape the weight loss drug market.
- New Drug Development Updates: Structure Therapeutics and AstraZeneca shared mid-stage data, and if their GLP-1 drugs succeed in Phase 3 trials, they are expected to hit the market by 2029, further enriching market options and intensifying competition.
- Innovative Administration Methods: Pfizer's new drug shows potential for monthly administration, which could be more convenient than current weekly injections, while Amgen is testing a drug that could be administered monthly or quarterly, aiming to enhance patient adherence to treatment.
- Future Market Outlook: With approximately 2.5 billion people globally classified as overweight and 890 million as obese, the competition will intensify as new drugs continue to emerge, while Lilly and Novo are also working to improve insurance coverage for GLP-1 drugs, which is expected to attract more patients.
See More
Future Outlook for Obesity Medications
- Intensifying Market Competition: At the American Diabetes Association Scientific Sessions, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk showcased their new GLP-1 drugs, with Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill achieving over 3 million prescriptions within five months of launch, indicating the potential of oral medications to attract more patients to weight-loss treatments.
- New Drug Development Updates: Structure Therapeutics and AstraZeneca shared mid-stage data on their respective GLP-1 pills, which, if successful in Phase 3 trials, are expected to hit the market by 2029, further enriching the options available to meet the growing demand for obesity treatments.
- Innovative Treatment Frequency: Pfizer's drug, acquired through its $10 billion purchase of Metsera, shows potential for monthly injections, while Amgen is testing a drug that could be administered quarterly, significantly improving patient adherence and reducing the burden of weekly injections.
- Exploration of Emerging Therapies: Zealand Pharma's petrelintide drug demonstrated an average weight loss of nearly 11% in mid-stage trials, which, while less effective than existing medications, had fewer side effects, leading the CEO to believe that this could spark strong demand for new therapies and potentially reshape the obesity treatment market.
See More
Pfizer's New Drug Intensifies Competition in Weight Loss Market
- Pfizer's Drug Introduction: Pfizer's weight loss drug berobenatide, requiring only monthly injections, is set to compete with Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound, potentially putting market pressure on both companies.
- Clinical Trial Results: The latest phase 2b trial showed an average weight loss of 15.9%, and while Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly's drugs may perform better under clinical management, the convenience of berobenatide could attract more patients.
- Market Outlook Analysis: Morgan Stanley projects the weight loss drug market will reach $150 billion by 2035, and Pfizer's entry may weaken the pricing power of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, impacting their future revenues.
- Long-term Strategic Impact: Pfizer plans to launch multiple weight loss drugs in the coming years, and although the short-term revenue contribution may be limited, the enhanced competitiveness poses a potential threat to shareholders of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
See More
Pfizer Enters Weight Loss Drug Market with Berobenatide
- Drug Development Progress: Pfizer's weight loss drug berobenatide shows promise in its latest phase 2b trial, indicating potential for monthly injections with an average weight loss of 15.9% over 32 weeks, providing new hope for Pfizer in a competitive market.
- Increased Market Competition: With Pfizer entering the weight loss drug market, it will compete against giants like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, which reported sales of $30 billion and $13.5 billion respectively, potentially undermining the pricing power of existing products.
- Diverse Clinical Trials: Pfizer is conducting multiple clinical trials for berobenatide, including 10 trials entering phase 3, indicating accelerated investment and strategic positioning in the weight loss drug sector.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Pfizer anticipates a high single-digit revenue CAGR starting in 2029, although short-term performance may be impacted by declining COVID-19 drug sales, the potential of its weight loss drug business remains noteworthy.
See More
