Venezuela's Political Turmoil Boosts Oil Prices
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 10 2026
0mins
Should l Buy COP?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Oil Price Surge: The ousting of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro led to a significant increase in oil prices from $57 to $65 in January, highlighting the strong impact of geopolitical events on the oil and gas market, which is expected to further drive stock prices of related companies.
- ConocoPhillips Stock Rally: ConocoPhillips shares rose 11.3% in January, despite reporting adjusted earnings per share of $1.02, which missed analyst estimates by $0.08; however, the market remains optimistic about its future potential earnings.
- Debt Recovery Prospects: ConocoPhillips stands to recover $10 billion owed by Venezuela, representing 7.4% of its current market cap, and a successful regime change could unlock more of Venezuela's untapped oil reserves, enhancing the company's financial position.
- Iranian Instability Impact: Escalating protests in Iran, the world's ninth-largest oil producer, have further influenced global oil prices, benefiting companies like ConocoPhillips as they navigate the complexities of the oil market amidst political unrest.
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Analyst Views on COP
Wall Street analysts forecast COP stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 128.380
Low
98.00
Averages
115.67
High
133.00
Current: 128.380
Low
98.00
Averages
115.67
High
133.00
About COP
ConocoPhillips is an exploration and production company. Its Alaska segment primarily explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas and NGLs. The Lower 48 segment consists of operations located in the 48 contiguous states in the United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Canadian operations consist of the Surmont oil sands development in Alberta, the liquids-rich Montney unconventional play in British Columbia and commercial operations. The Europe, Middle East and North Africa segment consists of operations principally located in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, Qatar, Libya, Equatorial Guinea and commercial and terminalling operations in the United Kingdom. Asia Pacific segment has exploration and production operations in China, Malaysia, Australia and commercial operations in China, Singapore and Japan. Other International segment includes interests in Colombia as well as contingencies associated with prior operations in other countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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- Brent Crude Spot Price: The spot price for Brent crude soared to $141.36 on Thursday, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, reflecting market sensitivity to geopolitical risks and concerns over future supply.
- Asia-Pacific Market Reaction: While the Australian and Hong Kong markets were closed for the Easter holiday, Japan's Nikkei 225 futures rose to 53,285 in Chicago, demonstrating investor optimism about market prospects.
- U.S. Market Volatility: U.S. major indexes experienced volatility amid rising oil prices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining by 61.07 points, yet the S&P 500 managed a slight increase of 0.11%, showcasing the market's adaptability to oil price fluctuations.
See More
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- Price Surge: The spot price of Brent crude oil soared to $141.36 on Thursday, marking the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating tight physical supply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Spot vs Futures Discrepancy: The spot price is $32.33 higher than the June Brent crude futures contract, highlighting a significant demand for immediate deliveries that may mislead investors about future oil price stability.
- Diesel Price Spike: Diesel prices in Europe are nearing $200 per barrel, underscoring the escalating pressure on the energy market, particularly following the disruption in supply chains due to the Strait's closure.
- Market Warnings: Chevron CEO Mike Wirth cautioned that futures prices do not accurately reflect the scale of supply disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure, suggesting that the market's perception and lack of information may lead to underestimating the current tightness.
See More
U.S. Crude Oil Contract Hits Historic Premium
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- Price Volatility Impact: Following President Trump's declaration of military action against Iran, oil prices experienced significant volatility, closing at $100.12 per barrel on Wednesday before rebounding sharply, reflecting investor disappointment over the lack of a quick resolution to the conflict.
- Brent Oil Surge: The spot price for Brent crude soared to $141.36 per barrel, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating strong market demand and tight physical supply due to the disruption caused by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Market Sentiment Shift: The market's reaction to Trump's speech revealed a shift in investor sentiment, with many shorts covering positions after the address, leading to a rise in May contract prices and reflecting an optimistic outlook for future oil prices.
See More
Trump's Speech Triggers Surge in Oil Prices
- Prolonged Conflict Impact: Trump's speech indicated that the war with Iran will continue for weeks, with nearly 1 billion barrels of oil expected to be lost by the end of the month, including 600 million barrels of crude and 350 million barrels of refined products, exacerbating deep disruptions to global energy supplies and causing oil prices to surge over 10%.
- Market Reaction: Brent crude prices jumped more than 6% to exceed $107 following Trump's remarks, as the market rapidly priced in expectations of a prolonged conflict, with buyers in Houston willing to pay nearly $120, reflecting concerns over future supply tightness.
- Inventory Pressure: With the ongoing war, a total loss of 630 million barrels of oil and products is forecasted by the end of June, leading to inventory pressures that could see onshore stocks drop to multi-year lows as early as August, intensifying physical tightness in the global market.
- Fuel Shortage Warning: Shell's CEO warned that fuel shortages will first hit South Asia, followed by Southeast Asia and Europe, with U.S. retail gasoline prices expected to surge to $4.25 to $4.45 per gallon in the next two weeks, while diesel prices could rise to $5.80 to $6.05.
See More
Stock Markets Pressured by Soaring Oil Prices
- Oil Price Surge Pressures Markets: Stock indexes are under pressure as crude oil prices soar over 8% following President Trump's aggressive stance on Iran, leading to a 0.06% drop in the S&P 500, a 0.23% decline in the Dow, and a 0.20% fall in the Nasdaq 100, indicating heightened inflation concerns among investors.
- Unexpected Jobless Claims Drop: Despite market pressures, initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 202,000, indicating a stronger labor market than anticipated, which may provide some support for stocks and alleviate investor fears of an economic slowdown.
- Divergent Energy Sector Performance: Energy producers like Diamondback Energy rose over 2% due to soaring WTI prices, while airline stocks such as American Airlines and Carnival fell more than 4% as rising fuel costs cut into profits, highlighting a clear divergence across sectors.
- Tech Stocks Decline: Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks retreated, with ARM Holdings leading the Nasdaq 100 down over 5%, reflecting waning confidence in tech stocks and potentially impacting future investment decisions.
See More
US Stocks Plummet as Oil Prices Surge
- Oil Price Surge: Crude oil prices soared over 13% as President Trump took a tougher stance on Iran, reaching a 3.5-week high, which not only heightened inflation fears but also pushed bond yields higher, with the 10-year T-note yield rising by 2 basis points to 4.34%.
- Unemployment Claims Drop: Weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell by 9,000 to 202,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the anticipated increase to 212,000, which could provide support for the stock market amid rising inflation concerns.
- Global Market Decline: Overseas stock markets are lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 2.25%, China's Shanghai Composite down 0.74%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 sharply falling 2.38% from a two-week high, reflecting global economic uncertainty and investor caution.
- Airline Stocks Plummet: Airline stocks are sharply lower as crude oil prices surged over 10%, raising fuel costs; United Airlines and American Airlines Group both fell more than 6%, highlighting the direct impact of rising oil prices on airline profitability.
See More
