Validea David Dreman Strategy Daily Upgrade Report - 2/22/2025
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 22 2025
0mins
Should l Buy DINO?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Contrarian Investment Strategy Updates: Validea's Contrarian Investor model, based on David Dreman's strategy, has upgraded ratings for several mid- and large-cap stocks, including HF Sinclair Corp (DINO), F&G Annuities & Life Inc (FG), Daiwa Securities Group Inc - ADR (DSEEY), and Imperial Brands PLC (ADR) (IMBBY), indicating improving fundamentals and valuations.
Company Descriptions and Performance: Each company operates in distinct sectors such as Oil & Gas, Insurance, Investment Services, and Tobacco, with their ratings reflecting strong interest from the contrarian investment strategy, particularly those scoring above 80%.
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Analyst Views on DINO
Wall Street analysts forecast DINO stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 57.850
Low
53.00
Averages
61.36
High
68.00
Current: 57.850
Low
53.00
Averages
61.36
High
68.00
About DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation is an independent energy company that produces and markets light products, such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel and other specialty products. Its segments include Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream. The Refining segment includes the operations of its El Dorado, Tulsa, Puget Sound, Navajo, Woods Cross, Parco and Casper Refineries and Asphalt. The Renewables segment includes the operations of the Artesia, Cheyenne and Sinclair RDUs and the Artesia PTU. The Marketing segment includes branded fuel sales. The Lubricants & Specialties segment includes the operations of its Petro-Canada Lubricants, Red Giant Oil and Sonneborn businesses in addition to specialty lubricant products produced at its Tulsa West refinery. The Midstream segment includes petroleum product and crude pipelines, terminal, tankage and loading rack facilities, and refinery processing units that primarily support its refining operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
HF Sinclair Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Management Change: HF Sinclair's CEO Tim Go has taken a voluntary leave of absence, with Franklin Myers appointed as interim CEO, while the Audit Committee reviews disclosure processes; despite management's confidence in financial statements, this change raises governance concerns that could impact investor confidence.
- Financial Performance: The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $564 million, a significant improvement from $28 million in Q4 2024, yet the company reported a net loss of $28 million, reflecting seasonal weakness in refining and the impact of special items, which may lead to uncertainty in future cash flows.
- New Business Venture: HF Sinclair has formed a joint venture, Green Trail Fuels LLC, with UPOP Holdings, planning to open over 30 retail sites across Colorado and New Mexico, targeting approximately 10% annual growth, which will enhance brand visibility and expand market share.
- Future Outlook: The company expects capital expenditures of approximately $650 million for 2026, down $125 million from 2025, while planning to run between 585,000 and 650,000 barrels of crude oil daily in refining; although management is bullish on refining margins for 2026, governance issues and declining cash flow may pressure investors.
See More
HF Sinclair Shares Drop 13.4% Following Q4 Results as CEO Steps Down for Disclosure Review
Company Performance: Shares of HF Sinclair dropped 13.4% following the release of Q4 results, indicating a negative market reaction to the financial performance.
Leadership Change: The CEO of HF Sinclair has announced their departure amid the disappointing results, suggesting potential instability within the company's leadership.
See More
U.S. Markets Finished Higher on Wednesday; Global Payments Saw Significant Gains
- U.S. Stock Market Performance: Stock indexes in the U.S. experienced gains on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.78%.
- Index Gains: The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.56%, while the Nasdaq Composite saw a rise of 0.26%.
See More
HF Sinclair Appoints Interim CEO as Shares Drop 14%
- Leadership Change: HF Sinclair appointed Franklin Myers as interim CEO and president, leading to a nearly 14% drop in stock price, indicating market unease regarding the leadership transition and its implications for future performance.
- Earnings Highlights: The company reported an adjusted net income of $221 million for the fourth quarter, translating to $1.20 per share, a significant rebound from a $191 million loss a year earlier, reflecting improved core operations and market demand recovery.
- Segment Performance: The refining segment's adjusted EBITDA improved to $403 million from a $169 million loss in the prior year, driven by higher refining margins and small refinery Renewable Identification Number waivers, showcasing the company's resilience in a competitive market.
- Cash Flow and Capital Allocation: HF Sinclair generated $8 million in net cash from operations in the fourth quarter, with total cash and equivalents reaching $978 million, up $178 million year-over-year, demonstrating financial stability and commitment to shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks.
See More
HF Sinclair Under Investigation for Securities Law Violations
- Executive Leave Impact: HF Sinclair's CEO Tim Go has taken a voluntary leave, resulting in a more than 10% drop in share price during pre-market trading on February 18, which not only undermines investor confidence but may also tarnish the company's reputation in the market.
- Audit Committee Review: The company's Audit Committee is reviewing matters related to its disclosure processes, leading to the release of unaudited fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results, which could alter investors' perceptions of the company's financial health and increase uncertainty around future financial reporting.
- Investor Claim Opportunities: Block & Leviton is investigating whether HF Sinclair has violated securities laws and may file actions on behalf of investors to recover losses, providing affected investors with potential avenues for claims and enhancing their legal support.
- Whistleblower Reward Program: Individuals with non-public information about HF Sinclair may receive rewards of up to 30% of any successful recovery through the SEC's whistleblower program, which not only encourages information disclosure but could also expose the company to greater legal risks.
See More
HF Sinclair (DINO) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
See More
HF Sinclair Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Management Change: HF Sinclair's CEO Tim Go has taken a voluntary leave of absence, with Franklin Myers appointed as interim CEO, while the Audit Committee reviews disclosure processes; despite management's confidence in financial statements, this change raises governance concerns that could impact investor confidence.
- Financial Performance: The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $564 million, a significant improvement from $28 million in Q4 2024, yet the company reported a net loss of $28 million, reflecting seasonal weakness in refining and the impact of special items, which may lead to uncertainty in future cash flows.
- New Business Venture: HF Sinclair has formed a joint venture, Green Trail Fuels LLC, with UPOP Holdings, planning to open over 30 retail sites across Colorado and New Mexico, targeting approximately 10% annual growth, which will enhance brand visibility and expand market share.
- Future Outlook: The company expects capital expenditures of approximately $650 million for 2026, down $125 million from 2025, while planning to run between 585,000 and 650,000 barrels of crude oil daily in refining; although management is bullish on refining margins for 2026, governance issues and declining cash flow may pressure investors.
See More
HF Sinclair Shares Drop 13.4% Following Q4 Results as CEO Steps Down for Disclosure Review
Company Performance: Shares of HF Sinclair dropped 13.4% following the release of Q4 results, indicating a negative market reaction to the financial performance.
Leadership Change: The CEO of HF Sinclair has announced their departure amid the disappointing results, suggesting potential instability within the company's leadership.
See More
U.S. Markets Finished Higher on Wednesday; Global Payments Saw Significant Gains
- U.S. Stock Market Performance: Stock indexes in the U.S. experienced gains on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.78%.
- Index Gains: The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.56%, while the Nasdaq Composite saw a rise of 0.26%.
See More
HF Sinclair Appoints Interim CEO as Shares Drop 14%
- Leadership Change: HF Sinclair appointed Franklin Myers as interim CEO and president, leading to a nearly 14% drop in stock price, indicating market unease regarding the leadership transition and its implications for future performance.
- Earnings Highlights: The company reported an adjusted net income of $221 million for the fourth quarter, translating to $1.20 per share, a significant rebound from a $191 million loss a year earlier, reflecting improved core operations and market demand recovery.
- Segment Performance: The refining segment's adjusted EBITDA improved to $403 million from a $169 million loss in the prior year, driven by higher refining margins and small refinery Renewable Identification Number waivers, showcasing the company's resilience in a competitive market.
- Cash Flow and Capital Allocation: HF Sinclair generated $8 million in net cash from operations in the fourth quarter, with total cash and equivalents reaching $978 million, up $178 million year-over-year, demonstrating financial stability and commitment to shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks.
See More
HF Sinclair Under Investigation for Securities Law Violations
- Executive Leave Impact: HF Sinclair's CEO Tim Go has taken a voluntary leave, resulting in a more than 10% drop in share price during pre-market trading on February 18, which not only undermines investor confidence but may also tarnish the company's reputation in the market.
- Audit Committee Review: The company's Audit Committee is reviewing matters related to its disclosure processes, leading to the release of unaudited fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results, which could alter investors' perceptions of the company's financial health and increase uncertainty around future financial reporting.
- Investor Claim Opportunities: Block & Leviton is investigating whether HF Sinclair has violated securities laws and may file actions on behalf of investors to recover losses, providing affected investors with potential avenues for claims and enhancing their legal support.
- Whistleblower Reward Program: Individuals with non-public information about HF Sinclair may receive rewards of up to 30% of any successful recovery through the SEC's whistleblower program, which not only encourages information disclosure but could also expose the company to greater legal risks.
See More
HF Sinclair (DINO) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
See More
