Should You Buy HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
51.560
1 Day change
0.60%
52 Week Range
56.580
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy now for a long-term beginner. DINO is in a clear technical uptrend with supportive (mostly bullish) Wall Street positioning and a constructive refining margin backdrop. While near-term earnings expectations have been trimmed by one firm and one large holder reduced its stake, the overall analyst view remains positive and price targets still imply meaningful upside from ~$50.8.
Technical Analysis
**Trend/price action**: Bullish. Moving averages are stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating an established uptrend.
**Momentum**:
- MACD histogram is positive (0.231) and expanding, which supports continued upside momentum.
- RSI(6) ~64.7: momentum is strong but not yet in an overbought extreme.
**Key levels (near-term)**:
- Pivot: 49.579 (important line to hold to keep the short-term uptrend intact)
- Resistance: R1 50.897, then R2 51.711 (price ~50.77 is just below first resistance)
- Support: S1 48.261 (a logical “line in the sand” for trend health)
**Pattern-based forward look (probabilistic)**: Similar-pattern analysis implies mild near-term weakness (next day/week) but a positive 1-month bias (+3.52%).
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): Entry signal triggered on 2026-01-05; price is up ~2.60% since. This supports the idea that the uptrend remains valid, though it’s no longer a “fresh” early entry.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
**Sentiment read from options**:
- Open Interest Put/Call = 1.18: positioning is slightly more defensive overall (more puts outstanding than calls).
- Volume Put/Call = 0.02: today’s flow is overwhelmingly call-driven (very bullish near-term appetite).
- Implied vol (30d) ~35.78 with IV percentile 26 / IV rank ~4.78: options are relatively inexpensive vs recent history, which often aligns with calmer sentiment and can be constructive for buyers.
- Volume surge: today’s options volume is far above the 30-day average (today vs avg ~1471.77), suggesting heightened attention/positioning.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
- **Supportive refining backdrop** cited by multiple analysts (tight markets / margin tailwinds; Venezuela-related light/heavy differential effects mentioned by Morgan Stanley).
- **Analyst stance is broadly bullish** (Overweight/Outperform/Buy) with price targets mostly in the low-to-high $60s.
- **Technical trend is bullish** (MA stack + positive MACD), supporting continued accumulation.
- **Upcoming earnings catalyst**: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-18 (pre-market).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
citing weaker West Coast performance.
Financial Performance
**Latest quarter (2025/Q3)**:
- Revenue: $7.251B, **+0.61% YoY** (low growth).
- Net Income: $400M, **down sharply YoY** (reported -623.08% YoY), indicating materially weaker profitability vs a strong prior-year quarter.
- EPS: 2.14, **down sharply YoY** (reported -635.00% YoY).
- Gross Margin: 17.42, **+97.06% YoY** (margin improvement, but it did not translate into higher net income/EPS in this snapshot).
**Takeaway**: Top-line is steady but earnings are volatile quarter-to-quarter/year-to-year; DINO behaves like a cyclical refiner where profitability can swing meaningfully with crack spreads and regional dynamics.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
**Recent trend (ratings & price targets)**: Net positive.
- Morgan Stanley (2026-01-27): Overweight, PT raised to $61 from $60.
- Piper Sandler (2026-01-08): Upgraded to Overweight, PT raised to $68.
- UBS (2025-11-04): Buy, PT raised to $65.
- Mizuho (2025-11-06): Outperform, PT raised to $62.
- Piper Sandler (2026-01-22 news): PT trimmed slightly $68 → $67 and Q4 EPS estimate cut on weaker West Coast performance.
**Wall Street pros**: constructive multi-quarter refining outlook, DINO viewed as one of the more investable SMID refiners, margin/capture tailwinds (especially West Coast leverage).
**Wall Street cons**: near-term regional weakness (West Coast) can pressure results; some firms note sector valuation considerations despite favorable fundamentals.
**Influential/political trading check**:
- Congress trading (last 90 days): No recent congress trading data available.
- Insiders: Neutral (no significant recent trend reported).
Wall Street analysts forecast DINO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DINO is 61.36 USD with a low forecast of 53 USD and a high forecast of 68 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast DINO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DINO is 61.36 USD with a low forecast of 53 USD and a high forecast of 68 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 51.250
Low
53
Averages
61.36
High
68
Current: 51.250
Low
53
Averages
61.36
High
68
Morgan Stanley
Joe Laetsch
Overweight
maintain
$60 -> $61
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Joe Laetsch
Price Target
$60 -> $61
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Joe Laetsch raised the firm's price target on HF Sinclair to $61 from $60 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Refining stocks have risen by about 10% year-to-date on the back of widening light/heavy differentials following the recent Venezuela events, the analyst noted. Updating for the latest forward cracks, the firm's Q1 EPS estimates for its large-cap refiner coverage are about 5%-10% below consensus on average, the analyst tells investors in a Q4 preview for the group. On a long-term basis, the firm remains constructive on the refining outlook, but it reiterates an In-Line industry view driven by valuation.
Piper Sandler
Ryan Todd
Neutral -> Overweight
upgrade
$64 -> $68
2026-01-08
Reason
Piper Sandler
Ryan Todd
Price Target
$64 -> $68
2026-01-08
upgrade
Neutral -> Overweight
Reason
As previously reported, Piper Sandler analyst Ryan Todd upgraded HF Sinclair to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $68, up from $64. In a positive refining backdrop, HF Sinclair is the most investable of the SMID-cap refiners, looking more like a "mini-large cap," the firm says. Piper further notes that HF Sinclair is the second most West Coast-levered refiner in its coverage and sees tailwinds to margins/capture on a significantly tighter WC market.
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