Based on the provided data, here's a comprehensive analysis of DINO's valuation:
Technical Analysis
The stock is currently trading at $36.92, showing signs of consolidation with RSI-14 at 49.92, indicating neutral momentum. The price is hovering around its 20-day SMA ($36.99), suggesting a sideways trend in the near term.
Valuation Metrics
DINO appears fairly valued based on several key metrics:
- P/E ratio increased from 3.63x (2022) to 6.70x (2023)
- EV/EBITDA rose from 2.69x to 3.83x
- Price-to-Sales ratio slightly increased from 0.28x to 0.33x
- Price-to-Book ratio remained stable at around 1.10x
Financial Performance
Net income declined significantly:
- 2022: $2.89B
- 2023: $1.58B (-45.5% YoY)
Revenue also decreased:
- 2022: $38.20B
- 2023: $31.96B (-16.3% YoY)
Recent Developments
Wells Fargo recently lowered their price target from $45 to $42, citing expectations of lower refining margins in 2025, though they maintain an Equal Weight rating.
Conclusion
DINO is not overvalued at current levels considering:
- Trading at reasonable multiples compared to historical averages
- Strong dividend yield of 5.5%
- Healthy balance sheet with improving current ratio from 2.08 to 2.22
- Current price represents fair value given the expected lower refining margins
- Technical indicators suggest neutral momentum