Utz Brands Sees 6%-8% Growth in Adjusted EBITDA
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 day ago
0mins
Should l Buy UTZ?
Sees annual adjusted EBITDA growth of 6%-8%, with a focus on growing Adjusted EBITDA dollars. Sees annual adjusted EPS growth approximately in-line with adjusted EBITDA growth after 2026, which is impacted by a step-up of depreciation and amortization, higher interest and a higher tax rate. Sees accelerated adjusted free cash flow of $100M plus in 2027 and beyond, which represents approximately 80%-90% conversion of adjusted net income to adjusted free cash flow. Utz Brands will discuss its strategies and long-term growth targets today at the 2026 Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference. "As the largest pure-play salty snack company in the country, we are focused on driving growth faster than the category," Friedman said. "We believe that prioritizing consistent topline growth, annual Adjusted EBITDA growth with margin expansion, and accelerating free cash flow will create shareholder value over time."
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Analyst Views on UTZ
Wall Street analysts forecast UTZ stock price to rise
8 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 9.040
Low
11.00
Averages
13.57
High
17.00
Current: 9.040
Low
11.00
Averages
13.57
High
17.00
About UTZ
Utz Brands, Inc. manufactures a diverse portfolio of savory snacks through various brands, including Utz, On The Border Chips & Dips, Zapp’s, and Boulder Canyon, among others. The Company sells a variety of salty snacks under the Utz brand, including potato chips, pretzels, cheese snacks, pub/party mixes, and seasonal favorites. The Company’s On The Border brand (OTB) is a national brand of tortilla chips, salsa and queso. Its Boulder Canyon brand offers a line of BFY potato chips, including those made with olive or avocado oils. The Company's Zapp’s brand offers a line of kettle-cooked potato chips with bold, authentic flavors steeped in its New Orleans roots, including Voodoo, Hotter ‘N’ Hot Jalapeno, Spicy Cajun Crawtators, and Cajun Dill Gator-tators, among others. It also sells certain third-party branded products through its distribution network. The Company's products are distributed nationally through grocery, mass merchandisers, club, convenience, drug, and other channels.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Utz Brands to Update Long-Term Growth Strategies at CAGNY Conference
- Strategic Update: Utz Brands (UTZ) plans to update its strategies at the CAGNY Conference, focusing on goals for profitable growth, margin expansion, and accelerating free cash flow to efficiently allocate capital and reduce debt.
- Sales Targets: The company sets a long-term sales potential of $1.9 billion, indicating a $500 million incremental opportunity primarily driven by share growth from Boulder Canyon and expansion geographies, reflecting optimism for the salty snack category.
- Financial Growth: Utz Brands anticipates a long-term adjusted EBITDA growth rate of 6% to 8%, with plans for adjusted EPS growth to align with EBITDA growth post-2026, despite pressures from rising depreciation, interest, and tax rates.
- Market Performance: Although Utz Brands, as the largest pure-play salty snack company in the U.S., aims for growth faster than the category, CEO Howard Friedman notes a 13.3% decline in share price year-to-date, indicating market caution regarding its growth potential.
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- Earnings Performance: Utz Brands reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.26, beating expectations by $0.01, indicating solid profitability despite slight revenue decline.
- Revenue Growth Challenges: The company's revenue for Q4 was $342.2 million, reflecting a 0.4% year-over-year increase but missing estimates by $0.5 million, highlighting challenges from intensified market competition and soft consumer demand.
- Organic Sales Growth: Organic net sales are expected to grow between 2% and 3%, driven by continued growth in branded salty snacks, particularly the performance of the
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Utz Brands to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 12
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- Revenue Expectations: The revenue estimate for Q4 stands at $342.7 million, showing a modest 0.5% year-over-year increase, which, while limited, suggests stability in the company's market position that may help maintain investor confidence.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Utz Brands has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time, although it has only surpassed revenue estimates 38% of the time, indicating strong performance in profitability but challenges in revenue growth.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen one upward revision and four downward adjustments, while revenue estimates have faced eight downward revisions with no upward changes, reflecting a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance.
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UTZ Brands Stock Rating Updates and Market Insights
- Rating Overview: Since the beginning of the year, UTZ Brands, Inc. (NYSE:UTZ) has received several rating updates, with Jefferies reiterating a Buy rating on January 27 and setting a price target of $15.00, indicating market confidence in its future performance.
- Market Challenges and Outlook: Although UBS cut the price target to $11 on January 14 while maintaining a Neutral rating, analysts noted that the market backdrop for the Consumer Staples sector remains challenging, with expectations for fundamentals to improve by 2026, reflecting cautious optimism for long-term growth.
- Sales Shortfall Analysis: TD Cowen assigned a Hold rating on January 12, stating that the fiscal Q4 sales shortfall was primarily linked to retailer inventory reductions due to a slowdown in November sales; despite improved consumption and shipments in December, the recovery did not fully offset the quarter's weakness.
- Product Portfolio and Market Positioning: UTZ Brands focuses on marketing, manufacturing, and distributing branded snacks, with a diverse product portfolio that includes various salty snacks such as pretzels, potato chips, and pork skins, showcasing its competitive advantage in the highly competitive snack market.
See More
Utz Brands to Update Long-Term Growth Strategies at CAGNY Conference
- Strategic Update: Utz Brands (UTZ) plans to update its strategies at the CAGNY Conference, focusing on goals for profitable growth, margin expansion, and accelerating free cash flow to efficiently allocate capital and reduce debt.
- Sales Targets: The company sets a long-term sales potential of $1.9 billion, indicating a $500 million incremental opportunity primarily driven by share growth from Boulder Canyon and expansion geographies, reflecting optimism for the salty snack category.
- Financial Growth: Utz Brands anticipates a long-term adjusted EBITDA growth rate of 6% to 8%, with plans for adjusted EPS growth to align with EBITDA growth post-2026, despite pressures from rising depreciation, interest, and tax rates.
- Market Performance: Although Utz Brands, as the largest pure-play salty snack company in the U.S., aims for growth faster than the category, CEO Howard Friedman notes a 13.3% decline in share price year-to-date, indicating market caution regarding its growth potential.
See More
Utz Brands (UTZ) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Utz (UTZ) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Utz Brands Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Performance: Utz Brands reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.26, beating expectations by $0.01, indicating solid profitability despite slight revenue decline.
- Revenue Growth Challenges: The company's revenue for Q4 was $342.2 million, reflecting a 0.4% year-over-year increase but missing estimates by $0.5 million, highlighting challenges from intensified market competition and soft consumer demand.
- Organic Sales Growth: Organic net sales are expected to grow between 2% and 3%, driven by continued growth in branded salty snacks, particularly the performance of the
See More
Utz Brands to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 12
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Utz Brands is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 12 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.25, reflecting a 13.6% year-over-year growth, indicating potential improvement in profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: The revenue estimate for Q4 stands at $342.7 million, showing a modest 0.5% year-over-year increase, which, while limited, suggests stability in the company's market position that may help maintain investor confidence.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Utz Brands has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time, although it has only surpassed revenue estimates 38% of the time, indicating strong performance in profitability but challenges in revenue growth.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen one upward revision and four downward adjustments, while revenue estimates have faced eight downward revisions with no upward changes, reflecting a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance.
See More
UTZ Brands Stock Rating Updates and Market Insights
- Rating Overview: Since the beginning of the year, UTZ Brands, Inc. (NYSE:UTZ) has received several rating updates, with Jefferies reiterating a Buy rating on January 27 and setting a price target of $15.00, indicating market confidence in its future performance.
- Market Challenges and Outlook: Although UBS cut the price target to $11 on January 14 while maintaining a Neutral rating, analysts noted that the market backdrop for the Consumer Staples sector remains challenging, with expectations for fundamentals to improve by 2026, reflecting cautious optimism for long-term growth.
- Sales Shortfall Analysis: TD Cowen assigned a Hold rating on January 12, stating that the fiscal Q4 sales shortfall was primarily linked to retailer inventory reductions due to a slowdown in November sales; despite improved consumption and shipments in December, the recovery did not fully offset the quarter's weakness.
- Product Portfolio and Market Positioning: UTZ Brands focuses on marketing, manufacturing, and distributing branded snacks, with a diverse product portfolio that includes various salty snacks such as pretzels, potato chips, and pork skins, showcasing its competitive advantage in the highly competitive snack market.
See More
