US Supreme Court Rules IEEPA Tariffs Illegal, Impacting Billions in Refunds
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 20 2026
0mins
Should l Buy UPS?
Source: CNBC
- Refund Challenges: The US Supreme Court's ruling that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal could lead to billions in refund requests, but trade attorneys warn that the refund process may be delayed due to court rulings and customs payment methods, creating double hurdles for importers.
- Surge in Tariff Revenue: The US government recorded $30 billion in tariff revenue in January 2026, bringing the year-to-date total to $124 billion, a staggering 304% increase year-over-year, indicating significant short-term fiscal impacts from high tariff policies, while potential refunds could exert long-term pressure on the Treasury.
- Customs Bond Issues: The rise in tariffs has escalated importers' customs bond requirements from a minimum of $50,000 to as high as $450 million, resulting in over 24,000 cases of bond insufficiencies valued at nearly $3.6 billion, highlighting the substantial cash flow impact of tariff policies on businesses.
- Complexity of Refund Process: Although tariffs are itemized, theoretically allowing for quick refunds, insurance companies require document verification, leading to expected delays of 30 to 60 days for refunds, particularly as small businesses have begun reaching out to insurers ahead of the Supreme Court decision to expedite the review process.
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Analyst Views on UPS
Wall Street analysts forecast UPS stock price to rise
19 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 106.610
Low
80.00
Averages
107.06
High
126.00
Current: 106.610
Low
80.00
Averages
107.06
High
126.00
About UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc. is a global package delivery and logistics provider. Its U.S. Domestic Package segment offers a full spectrum of air and ground package transportation services. Its air portfolio offers time-definite, same-day, next-day, two-day and three-day delivery alternatives as well as air cargo services. Its ground network enables customers to ship using its day-definite ground service. Ground Saver provides residential ground service for customers with non-urgent, lightweight residential shipments. Its International Package segment consists of small package operations in Europe, Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America and Asia. It offers a selection of guaranteed day and time-definite international transportation services supported by its brokerage capabilities that facilitate cross-border clearance for international shipments. Its supply chain solutions consist of customized third-party logistics and specialized cold chain transportation solutions.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
UPS Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights and Outlook
- Key Transition Actions: In Q1, UPS reduced non-lucrative Amazon volume by 500,000 pieces daily and closed 23 facilities, aiming to lower operational costs to support its $3 billion annual cost-out target.
- Financial Performance Overview: UPS reported Q1 consolidated revenue of $21.2 billion and operating profit of $1.3 billion with a 6.2% operating margin, despite facing $350 million in additional cost pressures, demonstrating solid financial performance.
- Market Share Growth: Small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) accounted for 34.5% of total U.S. volume, marking a historic high, while B2B represented 45.2%, indicating strong growth potential in these segments for UPS.
- Future Outlook: Management reaffirmed 2026 targets with consolidated revenue expected to be approximately $89.7 billion and an operating margin of about 9.6%, maintaining an optimistic view on Q2 profitability despite geopolitical and fuel cost uncertainties.
See More
UPS Poised for Growth in Prescription Drug Delivery Market
- Market Growth Potential: UPS CEO Carol Tome indicated that despite the Iranian conflict clouding the global economic outlook, the company's efforts in the prescription drug delivery market are expected to yield benefits in the second half of the year, highlighting the recession-resistant nature of this sector.
- High Margin Business: The high profit margins in healthcare logistics, particularly for expensive medications with margins in the mid-to-high teens, are attracting UPS's focus, significantly aiding its transformation as it moves away from low-margin e-commerce deliveries.
- Historic Revenue Achievement: UPS reported a record $11.2 billion in healthcare revenue for 2025, accounting for nearly 13% of total revenue, with healthcare surpassing 14% in Q1 2026, demonstrating rapid growth in this segment.
- Strategic Transformation: Under CEO Tome's
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SpaceX IPO Expected to Set Record for Largest Offering
- IPO Potential: SpaceX aims to raise $75 billion with a valuation projected between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, which, if successful, would surpass Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion IPO record set in 2019, indicating strong market interest in the space economy.
- Historical Lessons: Despite the excitement surrounding SpaceX's IPO, historical data shows that since 1999, only Visa has seen its stock price rise six months post-IPO, while five other large IPOs experienced declines of 8% to 38%, suggesting that investor sentiment may cloud judgment.
- Valuation Challenges: SpaceX's valuation may fall within a high double-digit or low triple-digit price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, yet historically, companies at the forefront of technology struggle to maintain P/S ratios above 30, posing risks for investors.
- Tech Bubble Risks: History indicates that every emerging technology over the past 30 years has faced bubble-bursting events; although demand for AI and space infrastructure is surging, SpaceX's sales and profits still require time to optimize, presenting significant risks for early investors.
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SpaceX Confidentially Files for Historic IPO
- IPO Potential: SpaceX confidentially filed for its IPO on April 1, aiming to raise $75 billion with a valuation of up to $2 trillion, which, if successful, would set a record for the largest IPO in Wall Street history, reflecting strong market confidence in its growth prospects.
- Historical Challenges: Despite investor enthusiasm, many high-profile IPOs over the past 27 years have struggled post-debut, with only Visa seeing a price increase six months after going public, while others like Facebook and Alibaba faced declines of 8% to 38%, adding uncertainty to SpaceX's IPO outlook.
- Significant Valuation Risks: SpaceX's sales are reported between $15 billion and $16 billion, but its high price-to-sales ratio, potentially exceeding 30, may be unsustainable, especially as historically, companies at the forefront of technology trends often fail to maintain such valuations, which could impact investor confidence.
- Bubble Risk Warning: History shows that many emerging technologies experience bubble bursts in their early stages; although demand for AI and space infrastructure is surging, SpaceX's sales and profits still require time to optimize, necessitating caution from early investors regarding potential risks.
See More
Value Investor Reinvests in Microsoft and Nvidia
- Investment Strategy Shift: Chris Grisanti, chief market strategist at MAI Capital Management, purchased Microsoft and Nvidia in Q1 2026 despite Microsoft’s over 12% decline year-to-date, viewing this as a unique opportunity for value investors to acquire these high-quality stocks at below-market P/E ratios.
- Microsoft's Potential: With a current P/E ratio of 19.6, nearly two standard deviations below its six-year average, Grisanti anticipates a 30% upside if it returns to normal valuation levels, with potential total returns nearing 50% in the coming years, highlighting its competitive edge in the AI race.
- Nvidia's Buying Opportunity: Nvidia's stock dropped over 6% in Q1, creating a buying opportunity for Grisanti, who notes its current P/E of 18 times is attractive; if it reverts to its historical norm of 30 times, shares could see a 60% upside, indicating strong growth potential.
- Market Response and Outlook: Despite market volatility affecting both Microsoft and Nvidia, Grisanti plans to buy on dips, reflecting his long-term optimism for these stocks, particularly against the backdrop of ongoing investments in AI and growing market demand.
See More
Joby Aviation Leads eVTOL Commercial Operations in Dubai
- Intensifying Market Competition: Joby Aviation is set to launch commercial eVTOL operations in Dubai in partnership with Uber, marking the beginning of a new era in eVTOL travel despite regional conflict risks, highlighting the sector's potential and attractiveness.
- Diverse Business Models: Joby is pursuing a vertically integrated Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) model, combining its own technology with Uber's transportation services, leading the FAA certification race ahead of rivals Archer and Vertical, showcasing its competitive edge.
- Emerging Investment Opportunities: Although eVTOL stocks have sharply declined this year, the long-term potential is evident, with Joby viewed as having the highest upside potential due to its first-mover advantage and TaaS model, attracting investor interest.
- Beta's Market Outlook: Beta Technologies is projected to end 2026 with $971 million in net cash and no need for funding until 2030, making it an attractive option for eVTOL investors due to its reliance on the cargo market and collaboration with Embraer.
See More
UPS Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights and Outlook
- Key Transition Actions: In Q1, UPS reduced non-lucrative Amazon volume by 500,000 pieces daily and closed 23 facilities, aiming to lower operational costs to support its $3 billion annual cost-out target.
- Financial Performance Overview: UPS reported Q1 consolidated revenue of $21.2 billion and operating profit of $1.3 billion with a 6.2% operating margin, despite facing $350 million in additional cost pressures, demonstrating solid financial performance.
- Market Share Growth: Small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) accounted for 34.5% of total U.S. volume, marking a historic high, while B2B represented 45.2%, indicating strong growth potential in these segments for UPS.
- Future Outlook: Management reaffirmed 2026 targets with consolidated revenue expected to be approximately $89.7 billion and an operating margin of about 9.6%, maintaining an optimistic view on Q2 profitability despite geopolitical and fuel cost uncertainties.
See More
UPS Poised for Growth in Prescription Drug Delivery Market
- Market Growth Potential: UPS CEO Carol Tome indicated that despite the Iranian conflict clouding the global economic outlook, the company's efforts in the prescription drug delivery market are expected to yield benefits in the second half of the year, highlighting the recession-resistant nature of this sector.
- High Margin Business: The high profit margins in healthcare logistics, particularly for expensive medications with margins in the mid-to-high teens, are attracting UPS's focus, significantly aiding its transformation as it moves away from low-margin e-commerce deliveries.
- Historic Revenue Achievement: UPS reported a record $11.2 billion in healthcare revenue for 2025, accounting for nearly 13% of total revenue, with healthcare surpassing 14% in Q1 2026, demonstrating rapid growth in this segment.
- Strategic Transformation: Under CEO Tome's
See More
SpaceX IPO Expected to Set Record for Largest Offering
- IPO Potential: SpaceX aims to raise $75 billion with a valuation projected between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, which, if successful, would surpass Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion IPO record set in 2019, indicating strong market interest in the space economy.
- Historical Lessons: Despite the excitement surrounding SpaceX's IPO, historical data shows that since 1999, only Visa has seen its stock price rise six months post-IPO, while five other large IPOs experienced declines of 8% to 38%, suggesting that investor sentiment may cloud judgment.
- Valuation Challenges: SpaceX's valuation may fall within a high double-digit or low triple-digit price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, yet historically, companies at the forefront of technology struggle to maintain P/S ratios above 30, posing risks for investors.
- Tech Bubble Risks: History indicates that every emerging technology over the past 30 years has faced bubble-bursting events; although demand for AI and space infrastructure is surging, SpaceX's sales and profits still require time to optimize, presenting significant risks for early investors.
See More
SpaceX Confidentially Files for Historic IPO
- IPO Potential: SpaceX confidentially filed for its IPO on April 1, aiming to raise $75 billion with a valuation of up to $2 trillion, which, if successful, would set a record for the largest IPO in Wall Street history, reflecting strong market confidence in its growth prospects.
- Historical Challenges: Despite investor enthusiasm, many high-profile IPOs over the past 27 years have struggled post-debut, with only Visa seeing a price increase six months after going public, while others like Facebook and Alibaba faced declines of 8% to 38%, adding uncertainty to SpaceX's IPO outlook.
- Significant Valuation Risks: SpaceX's sales are reported between $15 billion and $16 billion, but its high price-to-sales ratio, potentially exceeding 30, may be unsustainable, especially as historically, companies at the forefront of technology trends often fail to maintain such valuations, which could impact investor confidence.
- Bubble Risk Warning: History shows that many emerging technologies experience bubble bursts in their early stages; although demand for AI and space infrastructure is surging, SpaceX's sales and profits still require time to optimize, necessitating caution from early investors regarding potential risks.
See More
Value Investor Reinvests in Microsoft and Nvidia
- Investment Strategy Shift: Chris Grisanti, chief market strategist at MAI Capital Management, purchased Microsoft and Nvidia in Q1 2026 despite Microsoft’s over 12% decline year-to-date, viewing this as a unique opportunity for value investors to acquire these high-quality stocks at below-market P/E ratios.
- Microsoft's Potential: With a current P/E ratio of 19.6, nearly two standard deviations below its six-year average, Grisanti anticipates a 30% upside if it returns to normal valuation levels, with potential total returns nearing 50% in the coming years, highlighting its competitive edge in the AI race.
- Nvidia's Buying Opportunity: Nvidia's stock dropped over 6% in Q1, creating a buying opportunity for Grisanti, who notes its current P/E of 18 times is attractive; if it reverts to its historical norm of 30 times, shares could see a 60% upside, indicating strong growth potential.
- Market Response and Outlook: Despite market volatility affecting both Microsoft and Nvidia, Grisanti plans to buy on dips, reflecting his long-term optimism for these stocks, particularly against the backdrop of ongoing investments in AI and growing market demand.
See More
Joby Aviation Leads eVTOL Commercial Operations in Dubai
- Intensifying Market Competition: Joby Aviation is set to launch commercial eVTOL operations in Dubai in partnership with Uber, marking the beginning of a new era in eVTOL travel despite regional conflict risks, highlighting the sector's potential and attractiveness.
- Diverse Business Models: Joby is pursuing a vertically integrated Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) model, combining its own technology with Uber's transportation services, leading the FAA certification race ahead of rivals Archer and Vertical, showcasing its competitive edge.
- Emerging Investment Opportunities: Although eVTOL stocks have sharply declined this year, the long-term potential is evident, with Joby viewed as having the highest upside potential due to its first-mover advantage and TaaS model, attracting investor interest.
- Beta's Market Outlook: Beta Technologies is projected to end 2026 with $971 million in net cash and no need for funding until 2030, making it an attractive option for eVTOL investors due to its reliance on the cargo market and collaboration with Embraer.
See More
