US Stock Market Volatility Driven by Earnings Reports
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 29 2026
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Tech Earnings Impact: The S&P 500 index fell 0.41% amid mixed earnings results from tech giants, with Microsoft sinking over 10% due to disappointing cloud growth, highlighting market sensitivity to tech performance.
- Oil Price Surge: WTI crude oil prices rose more than 4% to a 4.25-month high as President Trump called for negotiations with Iran on a nuclear deal, boosting energy producers' stock prices and reflecting geopolitical impacts on the energy market.
- Unemployment Claims Data: US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by 1,000 to 209,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market, while continuing claims dropped to a six-month low of 1.827 million, suggesting relative strength in the labor market that may influence future economic policies.
- Widening Trade Deficit: The US trade deficit for November widened to $56.8 billion, exceeding expectations of $44 billion and marking the largest deficit in four months, potentially raising concerns about slowing economic growth.
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Analyst Views on MPC
Wall Street analysts forecast MPC stock price to rise
14 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 199.570
Low
184.00
Averages
201.50
High
213.00
Current: 199.570
Low
184.00
Averages
201.50
High
213.00
About MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an integrated, downstream energy company. The Company’s segments include Refining & Marketing, Midstream and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent and West Coast regions of the United States. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers domestically and internationally, to buyers on the spot market, and to independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores and distributes crude oil, refined products, including renewable diesel, and other hydrocarbon-based products, principally for the Refining & Marketing segment via refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, and others. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets renewable diesel and distributes renewable products through its Midstream segment and third parties.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Trump Considers Military Strikes Against Iran
- Military Action Possibility: Trump stated he will decide within the next 10 days whether to launch military strikes against Iran, raising market concerns about escalating tensions that could lead to further oil price volatility.
- Oil Price Surge: Amid fears of a potential U.S. attack on Iran, WTI crude prices have risen 6% this week and 16% year-to-date, reaching $66.68 per barrel, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Military Buildup in the Middle East: The U.S. is undergoing a significant military buildup in the Middle East, with the USS Abraham Lincoln already in the region and the USS Gerald Ford en route, reflecting heightened U.S. vigilance regarding the situation with Iran.
- Limited Negotiation Progress: Although U.S. envoys held talks with Iran in Geneva regarding its nuclear program, Vice President JD Vance noted that Iran did not address the red lines set by Trump, indicating substantial disagreements remain between the two parties.
See More
US-Iran Tensions May Not Impact Stock Market
- Market Resilience: Despite rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the stock market has shown strong performance, with the S&P 500 up about 0.6% this week, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq gained 0.3% and 0.9%, respectively, indicating investor resilience to geopolitical conflicts.
- Rising Oil Prices: Crude oil prices have surged, with West Texas Intermediate futures increasing approximately 6% this week to trade above $66 per barrel, while Brent futures also rose about 6%, reflecting concerns over potential supply disruptions due to military conflict.
- Historical Data Insights: Barclays' trading desk analysis shows that since September 1980, the S&P 500 has remained largely unchanged the day after geopolitical events, with slight gains on the day before and the day of such events, suggesting a generally optimistic market response.
- Investor Strategy Adjustments: Although the stock market is performing well, the S&P 500 is less than 2% below record levels, indicating that investors may consider trimming equity positions in anticipation of potential military escalation and its impact on market volatility.
See More
Oil Refiners Experience a Golden Era
- Refining Profits Surge: Oil refiners are experiencing significant profit increases due to falling crude costs and rising product demand, with Marathon Petroleum reporting a margin of $18.65 per barrel in Q4, a 50% increase year-over-year.
- Strong Market Demand: Global liquid fuel consumption is projected to rise by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026, driven by increased manufacturing, trucking, and air travel, which will further enhance refiners' market positions.
- Declining Crude Prices: The EIA forecasts that Brent crude will average $58 per barrel in 2026, down from $69 in 2025, providing refiners with lower input costs and potentially higher margins.
- Optimistic Investment Outlook: Given the current market dynamics, refining stocks have shown impressive performance with a year-to-date return of 25% in 2026, making a modest investment a potentially lucrative opportunity for investors.
See More
Oil Refiners Soar in 2026: Investment Insights
- Refining Margins Surge: In 2026, refiners like Marathon Petroleum reported a margin of $18.65 per barrel, a 50% increase year-over-year, indicating strong profitability in the refining sector amidst falling crude prices, which is likely to attract more investor interest.
- Demand Growth vs. Capacity Constraints: Despite forecasts of declining crude prices, the EIA projects a 1.2 million barrels per day increase in liquid fuel consumption in 2026, driving demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel beyond refining capacity, thereby enhancing profit margins for refiners.
- Strong Market Performance: As of February 11, 2026, stocks of Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, and Valero Energy have risen 28%, 25%, and 25% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1.6% increase, reflecting robust market confidence in the refining industry.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: While risks such as Middle Eastern conflicts or economic recessions exist, refining stocks are seen as having further upside potential, making a $1,000 investment at this time potentially lucrative, especially given the positive industry outlook.
See More
Oil Price Drop Fuels Refining Stocks Surge
- Optimistic Refining Outlook: The drop in crude oil prices has led to Marathon Petroleum achieving a fourth-quarter profit margin of $18.65 per barrel, approximately 50% higher than the previous year, indicating strong profitability and market demand for refiners.
- Sustained Demand Growth: Global liquid fuel consumption is projected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2027, primarily driven by manufacturing, trucking, and air travel, further solidifying the refining sector's market position.
- Significant Margin Increases: The 3-2-1 crack spread rose about 45% in the fourth quarter, indicating expanded profit margins for refiners, with Phillips 66's margin doubling to $12.48 per barrel and Valero's margin climbing 61%, reflecting a robust industry recovery.
- Positive Future Outlook: Despite risks from potential Middle East conflicts or economic recessions, crude prices are expected to continue falling, with the EIA forecasting an average Brent crude price of $58 per barrel in 2026, which bodes well for refiners and their shareholders.
See More
PBF Energy Reports Surprise Profit in Q4 Amid Supply Disruptions
- Surprise Profit: PBF Energy reported an adjusted profit of $0.49 per share in Q4, surpassing estimates of a $0.10 loss, indicating a significant rebound in refining margins due to supply disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war and improved crude price differentials.
- Refining Margin Recovery: The U.S. refining sector experienced a sharp recovery in Q4, with the 3-2-1 crack spread benchmark rebounding from multi-year lows earlier in 2024, driven by tighter global fuel supplies and seasonal demand increases, which bolstered profitability.
- Increased Throughput: PBF's crude oil and feedstocks throughput rose to 888,900 barrels per day in the reported quarter, up from 862,000 barrels per day a year earlier, reflecting the company's ability to capitalize on market recovery opportunities.
- New Refinery Construction Update: PBF expects the construction of its Martinez refinery in California to be completed by February 16, 2026, with the catalytic cracking unit anticipated to start in the first week of March, further enhancing the company's production capacity and competitive position in the market.
See More
Trump Considers Military Strikes Against Iran
- Military Action Possibility: Trump stated he will decide within the next 10 days whether to launch military strikes against Iran, raising market concerns about escalating tensions that could lead to further oil price volatility.
- Oil Price Surge: Amid fears of a potential U.S. attack on Iran, WTI crude prices have risen 6% this week and 16% year-to-date, reaching $66.68 per barrel, indicating market sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Military Buildup in the Middle East: The U.S. is undergoing a significant military buildup in the Middle East, with the USS Abraham Lincoln already in the region and the USS Gerald Ford en route, reflecting heightened U.S. vigilance regarding the situation with Iran.
- Limited Negotiation Progress: Although U.S. envoys held talks with Iran in Geneva regarding its nuclear program, Vice President JD Vance noted that Iran did not address the red lines set by Trump, indicating substantial disagreements remain between the two parties.
See More
US-Iran Tensions May Not Impact Stock Market
- Market Resilience: Despite rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the stock market has shown strong performance, with the S&P 500 up about 0.6% this week, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq gained 0.3% and 0.9%, respectively, indicating investor resilience to geopolitical conflicts.
- Rising Oil Prices: Crude oil prices have surged, with West Texas Intermediate futures increasing approximately 6% this week to trade above $66 per barrel, while Brent futures also rose about 6%, reflecting concerns over potential supply disruptions due to military conflict.
- Historical Data Insights: Barclays' trading desk analysis shows that since September 1980, the S&P 500 has remained largely unchanged the day after geopolitical events, with slight gains on the day before and the day of such events, suggesting a generally optimistic market response.
- Investor Strategy Adjustments: Although the stock market is performing well, the S&P 500 is less than 2% below record levels, indicating that investors may consider trimming equity positions in anticipation of potential military escalation and its impact on market volatility.
See More
Oil Refiners Experience a Golden Era
- Refining Profits Surge: Oil refiners are experiencing significant profit increases due to falling crude costs and rising product demand, with Marathon Petroleum reporting a margin of $18.65 per barrel in Q4, a 50% increase year-over-year.
- Strong Market Demand: Global liquid fuel consumption is projected to rise by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026, driven by increased manufacturing, trucking, and air travel, which will further enhance refiners' market positions.
- Declining Crude Prices: The EIA forecasts that Brent crude will average $58 per barrel in 2026, down from $69 in 2025, providing refiners with lower input costs and potentially higher margins.
- Optimistic Investment Outlook: Given the current market dynamics, refining stocks have shown impressive performance with a year-to-date return of 25% in 2026, making a modest investment a potentially lucrative opportunity for investors.
See More
Oil Refiners Soar in 2026: Investment Insights
- Refining Margins Surge: In 2026, refiners like Marathon Petroleum reported a margin of $18.65 per barrel, a 50% increase year-over-year, indicating strong profitability in the refining sector amidst falling crude prices, which is likely to attract more investor interest.
- Demand Growth vs. Capacity Constraints: Despite forecasts of declining crude prices, the EIA projects a 1.2 million barrels per day increase in liquid fuel consumption in 2026, driving demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel beyond refining capacity, thereby enhancing profit margins for refiners.
- Strong Market Performance: As of February 11, 2026, stocks of Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, and Valero Energy have risen 28%, 25%, and 25% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1.6% increase, reflecting robust market confidence in the refining industry.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: While risks such as Middle Eastern conflicts or economic recessions exist, refining stocks are seen as having further upside potential, making a $1,000 investment at this time potentially lucrative, especially given the positive industry outlook.
See More
Oil Price Drop Fuels Refining Stocks Surge
- Optimistic Refining Outlook: The drop in crude oil prices has led to Marathon Petroleum achieving a fourth-quarter profit margin of $18.65 per barrel, approximately 50% higher than the previous year, indicating strong profitability and market demand for refiners.
- Sustained Demand Growth: Global liquid fuel consumption is projected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2027, primarily driven by manufacturing, trucking, and air travel, further solidifying the refining sector's market position.
- Significant Margin Increases: The 3-2-1 crack spread rose about 45% in the fourth quarter, indicating expanded profit margins for refiners, with Phillips 66's margin doubling to $12.48 per barrel and Valero's margin climbing 61%, reflecting a robust industry recovery.
- Positive Future Outlook: Despite risks from potential Middle East conflicts or economic recessions, crude prices are expected to continue falling, with the EIA forecasting an average Brent crude price of $58 per barrel in 2026, which bodes well for refiners and their shareholders.
See More
PBF Energy Reports Surprise Profit in Q4 Amid Supply Disruptions
- Surprise Profit: PBF Energy reported an adjusted profit of $0.49 per share in Q4, surpassing estimates of a $0.10 loss, indicating a significant rebound in refining margins due to supply disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war and improved crude price differentials.
- Refining Margin Recovery: The U.S. refining sector experienced a sharp recovery in Q4, with the 3-2-1 crack spread benchmark rebounding from multi-year lows earlier in 2024, driven by tighter global fuel supplies and seasonal demand increases, which bolstered profitability.
- Increased Throughput: PBF's crude oil and feedstocks throughput rose to 888,900 barrels per day in the reported quarter, up from 862,000 barrels per day a year earlier, reflecting the company's ability to capitalize on market recovery opportunities.
- New Refinery Construction Update: PBF expects the construction of its Martinez refinery in California to be completed by February 16, 2026, with the catalytic cracking unit anticipated to start in the first week of March, further enhancing the company's production capacity and competitive position in the market.
See More
