Upstart Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 43 minutes ago
0mins
Should l Buy UPST?
Source: seekingalpha
- Revenue Growth Outlook: Upstart expects total revenues of approximately $1.4 billion for 2026, with fee revenue around $1.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $294 million, equating to 21% of total revenues, indicating strong growth potential under a stable macroeconomic backdrop.
- Significant Loan Originations: In Q1, loan originations reached $3.4 billion, up 61% year-over-year and 8% sequentially, with personal loan originations growing by 6%, reflecting the company's robust performance amid recovering market demand.
- New Product Launch: Upstart launched its first unsecured revolving credit product, Cash Line, aimed at expanding its customer base and enhancing revenue streams, although it remains in the early stages, potentially leading to new growth opportunities.
- Seasonal Loss and Profitability Expectations: Despite a net loss of approximately $7 million in Q1 and a GAAP EPS of negative $0.07, management reiterated full-year profitability expectations, emphasizing that the core personal loans business will serve as the profit engine, demonstrating confidence in future performance.
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Analyst Views on UPST
Wall Street analysts forecast UPST stock price to rise
13 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 32.080
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
Current: 32.080
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
About UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc. is an artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace. The Company’s platform includes personal loans, automotive retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and small dollar loans. It applies artificial intelligence models and cloud applications to the process of underwriting consumer credit. Its AI marketplace connects consumers with its lending partner. Its consumers can access Upstart-powered loans via Upstart.com, through a lender-branded product on its lending partners’ own websites, and through auto dealerships that use its Upstart Auto Retail software. Its platform enables lenders provide a product their customers want, rather than letting customers seek loans from competitors. Its cloud-based software platform incorporates technologies and software development approaches to allow for development of new features, such as cloud-native technologies, data integrity and security, and configurable multi-tenant architecture, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Upstart Reports 44% Revenue Growth in Q1 2026
- Significant Revenue Growth: Upstart reported Q1 2026 revenue of $308 million, reflecting a 44% year-over-year increase, although it fell short of Wall Street expectations, indicating strong performance in loan originations.
- Surge in Loan Originations: The company achieved total loan originations of $3.4 billion, up 77% year-over-year, with auto loan originations skyrocketing over 300%, demonstrating Upstart's effective expansion of its dealer network.
- Profitability Challenges: Despite exceeding revenue expectations, Upstart reported a loss per share of $0.07, significantly below analysts' forecast of $0.43 earnings per share, with management attributing this to seasonal headwinds while emphasizing future growth potential.
- Optimistic Outlook: Upstart reiterated its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $1.4 billion and projected a 35% annualized growth rate from 2025 to 2028, reflecting strong confidence in its market position and growth trajectory.
See More
Upstart Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Revenue Growth Outlook: Upstart expects total revenues of approximately $1.4 billion for 2026, with fee revenue around $1.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $294 million, equating to 21% of total revenues, indicating strong growth potential under a stable macroeconomic backdrop.
- Significant Loan Originations: In Q1, loan originations reached $3.4 billion, up 61% year-over-year and 8% sequentially, with personal loan originations growing by 6%, reflecting the company's robust performance amid recovering market demand.
- New Product Launch: Upstart launched its first unsecured revolving credit product, Cash Line, aimed at expanding its customer base and enhancing revenue streams, although it remains in the early stages, potentially leading to new growth opportunities.
- Seasonal Loss and Profitability Expectations: Despite a net loss of approximately $7 million in Q1 and a GAAP EPS of negative $0.07, management reiterated full-year profitability expectations, emphasizing that the core personal loans business will serve as the profit engine, demonstrating confidence in future performance.
See More
UPSTART HOLDINGS INC: PIPER SANDLER LOWERS TARGET PRICE FROM $56 TO $46
- Target Price Adjustment: Piper Sandler has reduced the target price for Upstart Holdings from $56 to $46.
- Market Impact: This adjustment reflects changes in market conditions and expectations for Upstart's performance.
See More
Class Action Filed Against Upstart Holdings for Securities Violations
- Class Action Initiated: Pomerantz LLP has filed a class action lawsuit against Upstart Holdings in the Southern District of New York on behalf of investors who purchased Upstart securities between May 14, 2025, and November 4, 2025, seeking damages for violations of federal securities laws.
- Revenue Guidance Downgrade: Upstart reported Q3 2025 revenue of $277 million, missing its prior guidance of $280 million, and significantly lowered its Q4 revenue forecast to $288 million, well below the consensus estimate of $303.7 million, indicating serious operational challenges.
- AI Model Issues: During the earnings call, Upstart acknowledged that its latest AI model, Model 22, overreacted to macroeconomic signals, leading to decreased borrower approval rates and negatively impacting revenue, revealing that the model's risk assessment accuracy was overstated.
- Significant Stock Price Drop: Following the earnings report, Upstart's stock price fell by $4.49, or 9.71%, closing at $41.75 per share, reflecting investor concerns about the company's financial stability and future performance.
See More
Class Action Notice for Upstart Holdings Investors
- Class Action Timeline: Rosen Law Firm reminds investors who purchased Upstart Holdings securities between May 14, 2025, and November 4, 2025, to apply for the class action by June 8, 2026, to potentially receive compensation without any out-of-pocket costs.
- Lawsuit Background: The lawsuit alleges that Upstart made materially false and misleading statements regarding its Model 22's risk-separation processes and loan approval rates, which misled investors about the company's revenue guidance for 2025.
- Law Firm Credentials: Rosen Law Firm specializes in securities class actions and has achieved the largest securities class action settlement against a Chinese company, being ranked No. 1 by ISS Securities Class Action Services in 2017, highlighting its expertise and success in this field.
- Investor Action Recommendations: Investors can visit Rosen Law Firm's website or call the toll-free number for more information, emphasizing the importance of selecting qualified legal counsel to protect their rights, especially since the class has not yet been certified.
See More
Upstart Holdings Faces Class Action Lawsuit
- Class Action Initiated: Berger Montague PC announces a class action lawsuit against Upstart Holdings on behalf of investors who purchased shares between May 14, 2025, and November 4, 2025, indicating significant investor dissatisfaction with the company's performance.
- Declining Performance: Upstart reported Q3 2025 revenue of $277 million, falling short of market expectations, and revised its Q4 revenue forecast down to $288 million while lowering FY 2025 revenue from $1.055 billion to $1.035 billion, highlighting severe financial challenges facing the company.
- Model Failure Allegations: The complaint alleges that Upstart overstated the performance of its AI-driven lending platform Model 22, failing to disclose the model's overreaction to macroeconomic signals, which had a significant negative impact on revenue, further exacerbating investor concerns.
- Stock Price Plunge: Following the earnings report on November 5, 2025, Upstart's stock price dropped by $4.49, or 9.71%, closing at $41.75, reflecting the market's pessimism regarding the company's future prospects.
See More
Upstart Reports 44% Revenue Growth in Q1 2026
- Significant Revenue Growth: Upstart reported Q1 2026 revenue of $308 million, reflecting a 44% year-over-year increase, although it fell short of Wall Street expectations, indicating strong performance in loan originations.
- Surge in Loan Originations: The company achieved total loan originations of $3.4 billion, up 77% year-over-year, with auto loan originations skyrocketing over 300%, demonstrating Upstart's effective expansion of its dealer network.
- Profitability Challenges: Despite exceeding revenue expectations, Upstart reported a loss per share of $0.07, significantly below analysts' forecast of $0.43 earnings per share, with management attributing this to seasonal headwinds while emphasizing future growth potential.
- Optimistic Outlook: Upstart reiterated its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $1.4 billion and projected a 35% annualized growth rate from 2025 to 2028, reflecting strong confidence in its market position and growth trajectory.
See More
Upstart Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Revenue Growth Outlook: Upstart expects total revenues of approximately $1.4 billion for 2026, with fee revenue around $1.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $294 million, equating to 21% of total revenues, indicating strong growth potential under a stable macroeconomic backdrop.
- Significant Loan Originations: In Q1, loan originations reached $3.4 billion, up 61% year-over-year and 8% sequentially, with personal loan originations growing by 6%, reflecting the company's robust performance amid recovering market demand.
- New Product Launch: Upstart launched its first unsecured revolving credit product, Cash Line, aimed at expanding its customer base and enhancing revenue streams, although it remains in the early stages, potentially leading to new growth opportunities.
- Seasonal Loss and Profitability Expectations: Despite a net loss of approximately $7 million in Q1 and a GAAP EPS of negative $0.07, management reiterated full-year profitability expectations, emphasizing that the core personal loans business will serve as the profit engine, demonstrating confidence in future performance.
See More
UPSTART HOLDINGS INC: PIPER SANDLER LOWERS TARGET PRICE FROM $56 TO $46
- Target Price Adjustment: Piper Sandler has reduced the target price for Upstart Holdings from $56 to $46.
- Market Impact: This adjustment reflects changes in market conditions and expectations for Upstart's performance.
See More
Class Action Filed Against Upstart Holdings for Securities Violations
- Class Action Initiated: Pomerantz LLP has filed a class action lawsuit against Upstart Holdings in the Southern District of New York on behalf of investors who purchased Upstart securities between May 14, 2025, and November 4, 2025, seeking damages for violations of federal securities laws.
- Revenue Guidance Downgrade: Upstart reported Q3 2025 revenue of $277 million, missing its prior guidance of $280 million, and significantly lowered its Q4 revenue forecast to $288 million, well below the consensus estimate of $303.7 million, indicating serious operational challenges.
- AI Model Issues: During the earnings call, Upstart acknowledged that its latest AI model, Model 22, overreacted to macroeconomic signals, leading to decreased borrower approval rates and negatively impacting revenue, revealing that the model's risk assessment accuracy was overstated.
- Significant Stock Price Drop: Following the earnings report, Upstart's stock price fell by $4.49, or 9.71%, closing at $41.75 per share, reflecting investor concerns about the company's financial stability and future performance.
See More
Class Action Notice for Upstart Holdings Investors
- Class Action Timeline: Rosen Law Firm reminds investors who purchased Upstart Holdings securities between May 14, 2025, and November 4, 2025, to apply for the class action by June 8, 2026, to potentially receive compensation without any out-of-pocket costs.
- Lawsuit Background: The lawsuit alleges that Upstart made materially false and misleading statements regarding its Model 22's risk-separation processes and loan approval rates, which misled investors about the company's revenue guidance for 2025.
- Law Firm Credentials: Rosen Law Firm specializes in securities class actions and has achieved the largest securities class action settlement against a Chinese company, being ranked No. 1 by ISS Securities Class Action Services in 2017, highlighting its expertise and success in this field.
- Investor Action Recommendations: Investors can visit Rosen Law Firm's website or call the toll-free number for more information, emphasizing the importance of selecting qualified legal counsel to protect their rights, especially since the class has not yet been certified.
See More
Upstart Holdings Faces Class Action Lawsuit
- Class Action Initiated: Berger Montague PC announces a class action lawsuit against Upstart Holdings on behalf of investors who purchased shares between May 14, 2025, and November 4, 2025, indicating significant investor dissatisfaction with the company's performance.
- Declining Performance: Upstart reported Q3 2025 revenue of $277 million, falling short of market expectations, and revised its Q4 revenue forecast down to $288 million while lowering FY 2025 revenue from $1.055 billion to $1.035 billion, highlighting severe financial challenges facing the company.
- Model Failure Allegations: The complaint alleges that Upstart overstated the performance of its AI-driven lending platform Model 22, failing to disclose the model's overreaction to macroeconomic signals, which had a significant negative impact on revenue, further exacerbating investor concerns.
- Stock Price Plunge: Following the earnings report on November 5, 2025, Upstart's stock price dropped by $4.49, or 9.71%, closing at $41.75, reflecting the market's pessimism regarding the company's future prospects.
See More
