Turning Point Brands sees FY25 adjusted EBITDA $108M-$113M
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 06 2025
0mins
- Projected Sales: The combined Modern Oral sales for FY25 are estimated to be between $60 million and $80 million.
- Data Training Cutoff: The information is based on data available up to October 2023.
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Analyst Views on TPB
Wall Street analysts forecast TPB stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TPB is 116.67 USD with a low forecast of 110.00 USD and a high forecast of 120.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 124.490
Low
110.00
Averages
116.67
High
120.00
Current: 124.490
Low
110.00
Averages
116.67
High
120.00
About TPB
Turning Point Brands, Inc. is a manufacturer, marketer and distributor of branded consumer products. It sells a range of products to adult consumers, consisting of staple products under the brands Zig-Zag and Stoker’s. Its segments include Zig-Zag Products (Zig-Zag) and Stoker’s Products (Stoker’s). Zig-Zag principally markets and distributes rolling papers, tubes, and related products; finished cigars and make-your-own cigar wraps, and other accessories. It introduced Zig-Zag ‘Rillo-sized wraps, which are similar in size to cigarillos, a type of machine-made cigars. Stoker’s manufactures and markets moist snuff tobacco (MST) and contract for and market FRE, its modern oral product and contract for and market loose-leaf chewing tobacco products. Its products are available in approximately 200,000 in the United States retail locations which, with the addition of retail stores in Canada, brings its total North American retail presence to an estimated 220,000 points of distribution.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Warning Signs for Momentum Investors in Consumer Staples
- Overbought Warning: As of January 29, 2026, two stocks in the consumer staples sector, Turning Point Brands Inc (NYSE:TPB) and TreeHouse Foods Inc (NYSE:THS), are showing overbought signals with an RSI above 70, indicating potential short-term price correction risks.
- Momentum Indicator Analysis: The RSI serves as a momentum indicator by comparing the strength of a stock on up days versus down days, providing traders with insights into short-term performance, and an overbought condition may prompt a reassessment of holding strategies.
- Market Reaction Expectations: The emergence of overbought signals may lead investors to adopt a cautious stance regarding the future performance of TPB and THS, potentially impacting their short-term stock price movements and increasing market volatility.
- Investment Strategy Adjustment: In light of the overbought warnings, investors may need to reevaluate their momentum trading strategies to avoid losses during potential corrections, especially in the current market environment.
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Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Accelerates Shift to Smoke-Free Products with 14.8% Growth in Oral Nicotine Sales
- Smoke-Free Transition: Altria Group is accelerating its shift towards smoke-free products in Q3 2025, particularly in oral nicotine and heated tobacco, demonstrating ongoing market adaptability and strategic realignment.
- Oral Nicotine Growth: The on! brand saw a 14.8% increase in shipment volumes to 133.6 million cans over the first nine months of 2025, maintaining a stable retail share of 8.7%, which lays a solid foundation for future growth in a competitive market.
- New Product Launch: Altria introduced the premium on! PLUS in select U.S. markets, aimed at attracting both existing smokeless users and adult consumers migrating from competing brands, thereby enriching its oral nicotine portfolio.
- Regulatory Progress: Altria filed a combined application with the FDA for the Ploom device and Marlboro heated tobacco sticks, marking a pivotal advancement in its smoke-free strategy and laying the groundwork for future market introduction in the U.S.
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