Turkey aims to return Russian missile systems in an effort to re-enter the F-35 program, according to reports.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 18 2025
0mins
Source: SeekingAlpha
Turkey's S-400 Systems: Turkey is seeking to return the S-400 air defense systems purchased from Russia in 2017, which could improve relations with the U.S. and facilitate the purchase of F-35 fighter jets.
Discussions with Russia: Turkish President Erdoğan discussed the potential return of the S-400 with Russian President Putin, although the Kremlin denied any such request was made.
Impact on U.S. Relations: If Turkey relinquishes the S-400, it may lead to the U.S. lifting sanctions on Turkey's defense industry and possibly re-integrating Turkey into the F-35 program.
Financial Considerations: Turkey is reportedly seeking a refund for the S-400 purchase, which could involve negotiating deductions from its energy import bills with Russia.
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Analyst Views on LMT
Wall Street analysts forecast LMT stock price to fall
12 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 616.250
Low
430.00
Averages
535.50
High
605.00
Current: 616.250
Low
430.00
Averages
535.50
High
605.00
About LMT
Lockheed Martin Corporation is a global aerospace and defense company. The Company is engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration and sustainment of advanced technology systems, products and services. Its segments include Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control (MFC), Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS) and Space. Aeronautics segment is engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, sustainment, support and upgrade of advanced military aircraft. MFC segment provides air and missile defense systems, manned and unmanned ground vehicles, energy management solutions, and others. RMS segment designs, manufactures, services and supports various military and commercial helicopters, surface ships, sea and land-based missile defense systems, and others. Its Space segment is engaged in the research and design, development, engineering and production of satellites, space transportation systems, and strategic, advanced strike, and defensive systems.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Lockheed Martin Corporation:
Company Overview: Lockheed Martin Corporation is a global aerospace, defense, and security company known for its advanced technology and innovation in military and civilian sectors.
Recent Developments: The company has been involved in various contracts and partnerships aimed at enhancing national security and advancing aerospace capabilities.
Financial Performance: Lockheed Martin has reported strong financial results, driven by increased demand for defense products and services amid global security challenges.
Future Outlook: The company is focusing on expanding its portfolio in emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence and cybersecurity, to maintain its competitive edge in the industry.
See More
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- Potential Value Increase: The contract includes options that could raise its total value to approximately $1.19 billion if fully exercised, indicating the company's long-term strategic positioning and profit potential in the submarine technology support market.
- Project Execution Location: Work will be performed in Manassas, Virginia, with an expected completion date of March 2036, providing the company with a stable revenue stream and project management opportunities over the long term.
- Navy Systems Command Oversight: The contract is awarded by the Naval Sea Systems Command, reflecting Lockheed Martin's core position in naval defense and its close collaboration with government entities.
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- Contract Background: This agreement builds on a previous $4.94 billion contract awarded by the U.S. Army, indicating the company's ongoing investment and commitment in the defense sector to support national security through a strengthened industrial base.
- Technological Innovation: By leveraging next-generation technologies, Lockheed Martin will expedite the production of critical munitions, enhancing weapon lethality and versatility while providing robust support for future operational demands.
- Long-term Strategy: The agreement allows for negotiating a multi-year contract of up to seven years, contingent on congressional authorization, further solidifying Lockheed Martin's leadership in the defense market and creating high-paying, skilled jobs.
See More
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- Production Capacity Boost: Lockheed Martin's framework agreement with the Department of War aims to quadruple Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) production capacity, building on a previous $4.94 billion contract, thereby ensuring American military superiority against any adversary.
- National Security Strategy: This agreement not only supports the national imperative to build a more lethal and resilient fighting force but also allows for the negotiation of a multi-year contract of up to seven years, contingent upon future congressional authorization, further solidifying U.S. defense capabilities.
- Operational Capability Debut: The PrSM was used in combat for the first time during Operation Epic Fury on March 4, showcasing its expanded deep-strike capability and marking the system's operational debut, succeeding the legacy Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS).
- Investment and Job Growth: Lockheed Martin has invested over $7 billion since President Trump's first term to expand capacity for priority systems, including approximately $2 billion dedicated to accelerating munitions production, creating tens of thousands of high-quality American jobs and advancing the manufacturing and engineering sectors.
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Impact of Iran Tensions on Airline Stocks
- Optimistic Airline Outlook: A quick de-escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran could lead to significant stock price surges for airlines like Delta Air Lines (DAL), as lower fuel costs would enhance earnings expectations; Delta's shares previously fell 23% during initial conflict escalations.
- Pipeline Stock Potential: In a prolonged stalemate, Enbridge (ENB), the largest natural gas utility in North America, transporting about 30% of crude oil, is expected to benefit from robust energy demand, even as oil prices stabilize at normal levels.
- Defense Stock Growth: Lockheed Martin (LMT) holds a record backlog of $194 billion as of the end of 2025, and an increase in missile orders from the U.S. and Israel could significantly boost its revenue, highlighting strong demand amid geopolitical tensions.
- Reconstruction Opportunities: Should regime change occur in Iran, Caterpillar (CAT), the world's largest construction equipment manufacturer, stands to gain from infrastructure rebuilding efforts; despite current market volatility, Caterpillar's stock has remained relatively stable, indicating its resilience in uncertain times.
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- Prolonged Stalemate Impact: In a scenario of continued stalemate between the U.S. and Iran, while oil prices may stabilize, Enbridge (ENB), a major North American pipeline company, is expected to benefit from robust energy demand, maintaining a stable market performance.
- Escalation and Reconstruction Opportunities: Should the situation escalate leading to regime change in Iran, Caterpillar (CAT), the world's largest construction equipment manufacturer, stands to gain significantly from increased infrastructure investments during the rebuilding phase.
- Anti-fragile Investment Strategy: Given the uncertainty surrounding the Iran crisis, investors should focus on “anti-fragile” stocks, with Enbridge being highlighted as the best choice due to its ability to perform well across various market conditions.
See More
Lockheed Martin Corporation:
Company Overview: Lockheed Martin Corporation is a global aerospace, defense, and security company known for its advanced technology and innovation in military and civilian sectors.
Recent Developments: The company has been involved in various contracts and partnerships aimed at enhancing national security and advancing aerospace capabilities.
Financial Performance: Lockheed Martin has reported strong financial results, driven by increased demand for defense products and services amid global security challenges.
Future Outlook: The company is focusing on expanding its portfolio in emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence and cybersecurity, to maintain its competitive edge in the industry.
See More
Lockheed Martin Secures ~$478M Contract for Submarine Imaging System
- Significant Contract Value: Lockheed Martin's Rotary and Mission Systems has been awarded a ~$478 million IDIQ contract for engineering and technical support of the Integrated Submarine Imaging System for both new and in-service submarines, highlighting strong demand in the defense sector.
- Potential Value Increase: The contract includes options that could raise its total value to approximately $1.19 billion if fully exercised, indicating the company's long-term strategic positioning and profit potential in the submarine technology support market.
- Project Execution Location: Work will be performed in Manassas, Virginia, with an expected completion date of March 2036, providing the company with a stable revenue stream and project management opportunities over the long term.
- Navy Systems Command Oversight: The contract is awarded by the Naval Sea Systems Command, reflecting Lockheed Martin's core position in naval defense and its close collaboration with government entities.
See More
Lockheed Martin and DoW Forge New Agreement to Boost Missile Production
- Production Capacity Boost: Lockheed Martin's framework agreement with the Department of War aims to accelerate Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) production, expected to quadruple capacity and ensure U.S. military advantage against any adversary.
- Contract Background: This agreement builds on a previous $4.94 billion contract awarded by the U.S. Army, indicating the company's ongoing investment and commitment in the defense sector to support national security through a strengthened industrial base.
- Technological Innovation: By leveraging next-generation technologies, Lockheed Martin will expedite the production of critical munitions, enhancing weapon lethality and versatility while providing robust support for future operational demands.
- Long-term Strategy: The agreement allows for negotiating a multi-year contract of up to seven years, contingent on congressional authorization, further solidifying Lockheed Martin's leadership in the defense market and creating high-paying, skilled jobs.
See More
Lockheed Martin and DoW Sign New Agreement to Boost Missile Production
- Production Capacity Boost: Lockheed Martin's framework agreement with the Department of War aims to quadruple Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) production capacity, building on a previous $4.94 billion contract, thereby ensuring American military superiority against any adversary.
- National Security Strategy: This agreement not only supports the national imperative to build a more lethal and resilient fighting force but also allows for the negotiation of a multi-year contract of up to seven years, contingent upon future congressional authorization, further solidifying U.S. defense capabilities.
- Operational Capability Debut: The PrSM was used in combat for the first time during Operation Epic Fury on March 4, showcasing its expanded deep-strike capability and marking the system's operational debut, succeeding the legacy Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS).
- Investment and Job Growth: Lockheed Martin has invested over $7 billion since President Trump's first term to expand capacity for priority systems, including approximately $2 billion dedicated to accelerating munitions production, creating tens of thousands of high-quality American jobs and advancing the manufacturing and engineering sectors.
See More
Impact of Iran Tensions on Airline Stocks
- Optimistic Airline Outlook: A quick de-escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran could lead to significant stock price surges for airlines like Delta Air Lines (DAL), as lower fuel costs would enhance earnings expectations; Delta's shares previously fell 23% during initial conflict escalations.
- Pipeline Stock Potential: In a prolonged stalemate, Enbridge (ENB), the largest natural gas utility in North America, transporting about 30% of crude oil, is expected to benefit from robust energy demand, even as oil prices stabilize at normal levels.
- Defense Stock Growth: Lockheed Martin (LMT) holds a record backlog of $194 billion as of the end of 2025, and an increase in missile orders from the U.S. and Israel could significantly boost its revenue, highlighting strong demand amid geopolitical tensions.
- Reconstruction Opportunities: Should regime change occur in Iran, Caterpillar (CAT), the world's largest construction equipment manufacturer, stands to gain from infrastructure rebuilding efforts; despite current market volatility, Caterpillar's stock has remained relatively stable, indicating its resilience in uncertain times.
See More
Three Scenarios for the Iran Crisis and Investment Strategies
- Quick De-escalation Outlook: President Trump recently indicated “very good and productive” talks with Iran, suggesting that if tensions ease quickly, Delta Air Lines (DAL) could see a significant stock price surge due to lower fuel costs, leading to a notable market rally.
- Prolonged Stalemate Impact: In a scenario of continued stalemate between the U.S. and Iran, while oil prices may stabilize, Enbridge (ENB), a major North American pipeline company, is expected to benefit from robust energy demand, maintaining a stable market performance.
- Escalation and Reconstruction Opportunities: Should the situation escalate leading to regime change in Iran, Caterpillar (CAT), the world's largest construction equipment manufacturer, stands to gain significantly from increased infrastructure investments during the rebuilding phase.
- Anti-fragile Investment Strategy: Given the uncertainty surrounding the Iran crisis, investors should focus on “anti-fragile” stocks, with Enbridge being highlighted as the best choice due to its ability to perform well across various market conditions.
See More
