Trump Advocates for Ukraine Peace Agreement; Oil and Defense Stocks Decline.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 24 2025
0mins
Should l Buy NOC?
Source: Barron's
- Trump's Announcement: President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. and Ukraine have made significant progress on a peace proposal to present to Russia.
- Market Reaction: The announcement led to a decline in oil prices and several defense stocks.
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Analyst Views on NOC
Wall Street analysts forecast NOC stock price to rise
13 Analyst Rating
10 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 678.830
Low
630.00
Averages
684.08
High
770.00
Current: 678.830
Low
630.00
Averages
684.08
High
770.00
About NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation is a global aerospace and defense technology company. Its segments include Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems, and Space Systems. Aeronautics Systems is engaged in the design, development, production, integration, sustainment and modernization of military aircraft systems for the United States Air Force, the United States Navy, other United States government agencies, and international customers. Defense Systems is engaged in the design, engineering, development, integration, and manufacturing of deterrent systems, advanced tactical weapons, and missile defense solutions. Mission Systems is a provider of mission solutions and multifunction systems. Its products and services include command, control, communications and computers, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems. Space Systems delivers end-to-end mission solutions through the design, development, integration, production and operation of space, missile defense, and launch systems.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Strong Earnings Report: Northrop Grumman reported an adjusted earnings per share of $7.23 in Q4, surpassing analyst expectations of $6.96, with GAAP earnings reaching $9.99, demonstrating robust profitability amidst a challenging defense market.
- Significant Sales Growth: The company achieved quarterly sales of $11.7 billion, reflecting a 10% year-over-year increase, while total annual sales were $42 billion, growing only 2%, indicating Northrop's superior performance in a competitive landscape.
- Substantial Free Cash Flow Increase: Free cash flow surged by 84% to $2.2 billion in Q4, with annual free cash flow at $3.3 billion, although lower than the reported net profit of $4.2 billion, showcasing effective cash management that enhances future investment capacity.
- Cautious Outlook: Despite reporting a record backlog of $95.7 billion, management forecasts approximately 4% sales growth in 2026 and adjusted earnings of about $27.65 per share, both falling short of analyst expectations, reflecting uncertainty in future growth that may impact investor confidence.
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- Covert Operation: The Trump administration secretly smuggled approximately 6,000 Starlink satellite internet terminals into Iran following the regime's crackdown on protesters, marking a significant escalation in U.S. support for anti-regime activists.
- Funding Redirection: The State Department redirected funds from other Iran internet freedom programs to acquire SpaceX devices after purchasing nearly 7,000 terminals, indicating a strategic shift in U.S. policy towards supporting dissent in Iran.
- Legal Risks and Usage: Possession of a Starlink terminal is illegal in Iran and punishable by years in prison; however, tens of thousands of Iranians are using these devices to bypass government censorship, highlighting a strong demand for information freedom among the populace.
- Rising Geopolitical Risks: As the U.S. engages in high-stakes nuclear negotiations with Iran, market predictions indicate a 44% chance of a U.S. strike on Iran by June, suggesting that defense contractors may benefit from the escalating tensions and the integration of commercial technology into national security operations.
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- Rapid Defense Budget Growth: The U.S. defense budget has surpassed $1 trillion, with NATO countries expected to increase core defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, potentially adding around $370 billion in spending from non-U.S. NATO members, indicating a robust growth trend in defense budgets.
- Potential $1.5 Trillion Budget: At a recent Defense Outlook Forum, retired Gen. Arnold Punaro expressed optimism that the U.S. defense budget could grow to $1.5 trillion, representing a roughly 50% increase from fiscal 2026 levels, although analysts remain cautious about the feasibility of such growth.
- AI and Automation in Warfare: The Department of Defense emphasizes the increasing importance of automation, autonomy, and artificial intelligence in warfare, pushing contractors to enhance output, reduce costs, and build a lasting software advantage, which could enable defense firms to achieve margins similar to those in commercial aerospace or technology sectors.
- Valuation Concerns for Defense Stocks: Despite a nearly 100% rally in defense stocks raising valuation concerns, this surge appears grounded in fundamentals, as governments commit to multi-year budget increases, geopolitical tensions remain high, and global missile and munitions inventories are depleted, making defense a clear policy priority for the U.S. and NATO allies.
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- Standalone Budget Allocation: The Pentagon has established its first-ever standalone budget line for autonomy, requesting $13.4 billion for AI-driven platforms, indicating a significant commitment to future military technology that could drive market demand for related companies.
- Helicopter Training Outsourcing: The U.S. Army has outsourced its entire helicopter pilot training pipeline to a single contractor under a 26-year deal, enabling the training of up to 1,500 aviators annually, which simplifies the training process and enhances efficiency, potentially reducing long-term operational costs.
- Successful Technology Demonstration: VisionWave successfully demonstrated its RF-based Vulnerable Road User detection platform in front of a major vehicle manufacturer, capable of identifying pedestrians in complete darkness and behind physical obstructions, marking a significant advancement in automotive safety technology that could redefine industry standards.
- Strategic Investment Agreement: VisionWave has established a $7 million strategic exchange agreement with SaverOne, potentially acquiring approximately 51% of SaverOne upon milestone completion, showcasing its expansion potential in defense and security applications.
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- Standalone Autonomy Budget: The Pentagon has established its first-ever standalone budget line for autonomy, requesting $13.4 billion for AI-driven platforms, indicating a significant commitment to future military technologies that could drive market demand for related companies.
- Helicopter Training Outsourcing: The U.S. Army is outsourcing its entire helicopter pilot training pipeline to a single contractor under a 26-year deal, enabling the training of up to 1,500 aviators annually, which simplifies the training process and enhances efficiency, potentially reducing long-term operational costs.
- Successful Technology Demonstration: VisionWave successfully demonstrated its RF-based Vulnerable Road User detection platform to a major vehicle manufacturer, capable of identifying pedestrians in complete darkness and behind obstacles, marking a significant advancement in automotive safety technology that could redefine industry standards.
- Strategic Investment Agreement: VisionWave has established a strategic exchange agreement valued at $7 million with SaverOne, potentially acquiring approximately 51% of SaverOne upon milestone completion, showcasing its expansion potential in defense and security applications.
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- Military Deployment Escalation: The U.S. Department of Defense has directed a second aircraft carrier strike group to prepare for deployment to the Middle East, indicating active adjustments in military positioning amid rising tensions with Iran.
- Trump's Decision Considerations: President Trump stated he is considering sending another carrier to the region to prepare for potential military action if nuclear negotiations fail, although no formal deployment order has been issued yet, with such a decision possibly coming within hours.
- Carrier Readiness Status: The Pentagon is accelerating preparations for the USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group, expected to complete training and depart in about two weeks, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group already repositioned to the Middle East.
- Diplomatic and Military Balance: Following his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Trump emphasized that while diplomatic negotiations continue, military preparations are also underway, reflecting heightened U.S. readiness should diplomatic efforts falter.
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