The Trade Desk Issues Weaker Revenue Outlook, Stock Declines
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 26 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TTD?
Source: Benzinga
- Weaker Revenue Outlook: The Trade Desk's forecast for Q1 2026 revenue exceeding $678 million falls short of the $689.48 million analyst estimate, dampening investor enthusiasm and leading to a stock decline.
- Earnings Snapshot: In Q4 2025, The Trade Desk reported earnings of 59 cents per share, beating consensus estimates by one cent; however, the weak revenue guidance has negatively impacted market confidence.
- Technical Analysis: Over the past 12 months, The Trade Desk's stock has declined by 65.26%, currently trading at $21.39, which is 22.4% below its 20-day SMA, indicating a strong bearish trend in both short and long-term perspectives.
- Analyst Rating Changes: While The Trade Desk's stock carries a Buy rating with a target price of $55.97, recent downgrades from firms like Loop Capital and Wedbush reflect growing concerns about the company's future performance.
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Analyst Views on TTD
Wall Street analysts forecast TTD stock price to rise
28 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
12 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 21.980
Low
38.00
Averages
53.33
High
85.00
Current: 21.980
Low
38.00
Averages
53.33
High
85.00
About TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc. is a global advertising technology company. The Company offers a self-service, cloud-based ad-buying platform that empowers its clients to plan, manage, optimize and measure more expressive data-driven digital advertising campaigns. Its platform allows clients to execute integrated campaigns across ad formats and channels, including connected television (CTV) and other video, display, audio, and native, on a multitude of devices, such as televisions, streaming devices, mobile devices, computers and digital-out-of-home devices. Its platform’s integrations with inventory, publisher and data partners provide ad buyers reach and decisioning capabilities, and its enterprise application programming interfaces (APIs) enable its clients to customize and expand platform functionality. Its platform provides auto-optimization features that allow buyers to automate their campaigns and support them with computer-generated modeling and decision-making.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Rising Treasury Yields: The 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields are climbing due to war-driven inflation expectations, impacting borrowing costs and exacerbating investor panic, particularly for long-term investors facing a challenging environment.
- Tech Sector Turmoil: Amid market volatility, tech stocks, especially the 'Magnificent Seven', have faced significant declines, with Intuit, Applovin, and Gartner dropping 37%, 43.4%, and 38% respectively, highlighting the sector's vulnerability to changing market sentiments and AI competition.
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- Value Investment Opportunity: The Trade Desk's current stock price of $21.73 and a market cap of $10 billion indicate it is trading significantly below its intrinsic value, with analysts suggesting it could potentially double by year-end, highlighting its undervalued status.
- Reasons for Growth Slowdown: Once a darling of growth stocks with quarterly revenue growth exceeding 20%, The Trade Desk has seen a slowdown due to platform complexity and negative audits from Publicis, leading to diminished investor confidence.
- Future Growth Expectations: Revenue is expected to grow 14% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with a forecast of 10% growth in the next quarter; while this is below historical levels, a return to mid-teens growth could see the stock price rebound.
- Strategic Adjustments Needed: The Trade Desk must address its relationship issues with Publicis and expedite its collaboration with OpenAI to capture market share in generative AI advertising, which is essential for achieving its goal of doubling the stock price.
See More
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- Growth Slowdown: The Trade Desk's revenue growth was only 14% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with expectations of a further decline to 10% next quarter, a stark contrast to its previous growth rates exceeding 20%, leading to diminished investor confidence.
- Client Relationship Crisis: The decision by Publicis to no longer recommend The Trade Desk as an advertising partner highlights a trust crisis following a failed internal audit, which could further impact its market share and customer base.
- Valuation Struggles: The Trade Desk trades at a forward P/E of 10.8, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 20.6, indicating that despite its growth being on par with market averages, its valuation does not reflect its potential value, limiting stock price appreciation.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: While the partnership with OpenAI could drive advertising growth, the stock's potential to double remains uncertain until the company addresses the allegations from Publicis and improves its customer relationships.
See More
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- Significant Revenue Growth: Braze reported a 28% year-over-year revenue increase to $205 million in its fiscal 2026 Q4, driven by new customer acquisitions and upsells, thereby enhancing its competitive edge in the AI-driven market.
- Customer Base Expansion: The number of Braze's customers grew by 14% to 2,609, with those generating annual recurring revenue (ARR) of at least $500,000 increasing by 35% to 333, indicating the company's growing appeal among high-value clients.
- Surge in Operating Income: Adjusted operating income soared by 83% to $14.5 million, reflecting effective management in cost control and revenue growth, further solidifying its market position.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management expects revenue for fiscal 2027 to rise to between $884 million and $889 million, up from $738 million in fiscal 2026, while adjusted operating income is projected to reach $69 million to $73 million, showcasing strong commercial momentum and the fastest product delivery pace in the company's history.
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