The Impending Government Shutdown: Understanding the Economic Implications.
Impact of Government Shutdowns: Government shutdowns typically do not cause significant long-term damage to the U.S. economy.
Potential Effects on Growth and Policy: The current congressional deadlock over spending could still influence economic growth and monetary policy decisions.
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- Economic Slowdown: The U.S. added only 181,000 jobs in 2025, a sharp decline from 1.2 million in 2024, indicating weak economic growth that may put additional downward pressure on the S&P 500.
- Optimistic Market Expectations: Despite the economic slowdown, Wall Street analysts predict a roughly 10% increase in the S&P 500 for 2026, primarily driven by economic growth supported by tax cuts and artificial intelligence spending.
- Significant Valuation Risks: The S&P 500 currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 22, well above the 10-year average of 18.8, having only maintained such high valuations during the dot-com bubble and the pandemic, suggesting potential bear market risks ahead.
- Midterm Election Impact: Historical data shows that since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged only a 4.6% return in midterm election years, with an average intra-year drawdown of 17%, increasing uncertainty for the market in 2026.
- Resignation Announcement: Kathy Ruemmler, Goldman Sachs' Chief Legal Officer, announced her resignation effective June 30, 2026, following the release of emails by the U.S. Department of Justice that revealed her close ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, despite her previous insistence on remaining in her position.
- Complex Relationship: In the emails, Ruemmler referred to Epstein as an 'older brother' and 'uncle,' downplaying his sex crimes, yet she stated in her resignation announcement that she 'regrets ever knowing him,' highlighting the complexity of her relationship with Epstein.
- Goldman’s Response: CEO David Solomon praised Ruemmler as an 'excellent lawyer' and expressed respect for her decision to resign, indicating the firm's cautious approach to the situation and underscoring the importance of its legal team.
- Gift Controversy: After leaving the White House, Ruemmler accepted luxury gifts from Epstein, including designer handbags and a fur coat, which are viewed as potential conflicts of interest on Wall Street, intensifying public scrutiny surrounding her resignation.
- Resignation Reason: Goldman Sachs' top lawyer Kathy Ruemmler resigns due to her close ties with the late financier Jeffrey Epstein, highlighting significant challenges the firm faces in legal compliance.
- Legal Risks: Ruemmler's departure may trigger further scrutiny of Goldman Sachs regarding legal and reputational risks, especially following the exposure of her relationship with Epstein, potentially impacting investor confidence.
- Management Changes: This incident marks a significant shift in Goldman Sachs' management, which may lead the company to reassess its legal and compliance strategies in response to external pressures and internal governance issues.
- Market Reaction: Goldman Sachs' stock price may experience negative impacts due to this resignation, as investor concerns over corporate governance and compliance could intensify, thereby affecting its market performance.
- Resignation Announcement: Goldman Sachs Chief Legal Officer Kathryn Ruemmler announced her resignation effective June 30, 2026, following the release of emails detailing her interactions with notorious sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, indicating mounting pressure on the firm regarding legal and reputational management.
- Legal Responsibilities: In her statement, Ruemmler emphasized her duty to prioritize Goldman Sachs' interests, yet her connections to Epstein have raised public and regulatory scrutiny, potentially leading to long-term reputational damage for the firm.
- Executive Praise: Goldman CEO David Solomon praised Ruemmler's contributions during her tenure, highlighting her exceptional performance on various significant legal matters; however, this incident may intensify scrutiny on the firm's legal compliance practices.
- Industry Impact: Ruemmler's resignation follows a wave of high-profile departures linked to Epstein, reflecting the financial sector's acute sensitivity to reputational risks and potentially prompting other firms to reassess the backgrounds and associations of their executives.
- Diverse ETF Themes: Fundstrat's GRNY ETF launched in November 2024, encompasses various investment themes including value investing, despite a year-to-date decline of 0.32%, it has risen 18.31% over the past 52 weeks, indicating some market appeal.
- Overlap with Dow Jones: The GRNY ETF shares eight stocks with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, including well-known tech stocks like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia, with respective weights of 2.55%, 2.16%, 2.11%, and 2.51% in GRNY, reflecting a similarity in investment strategies.
- Differing Investment Styles: The GRNY ETF employs a rules-based stock selection process focusing on stocks that meet two or more key themes, with current themes including PMI recovery, energy stocks, and cybersecurity, aimed at attracting millennial investors.
- Market Performance Comparison: In contrast to the GRNY ETF, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF has increased by 3.46% year-to-date and 12.08% over the past 52 weeks, showcasing the relative strength of Dow components, which may impact investor confidence in GRNY.
Earnings Report Impact: IREN Limited's recent second-quarter earnings report missed Wall Street expectations, leading to a sharp sell-off in shares, which dropped to approximately $36.49 before rebounding to $42.67 within days, indicating market resilience.
Investor Sentiment: Despite initial negative reactions, institutional investors viewed the price dip as an opportunity to acquire shares at a discount, signaling confidence in the company's long-term growth potential and operational stability.
Strategic Expansion: IREN has secured a $3.6 billion credit facility to fund its expansion into graphics processing units (GPUs) and announced the acquisition of a 1.6 GW data center campus in Oklahoma, diversifying its operations and securing its physical future.
Market Valuation Discrepancy: The company's market capitalization is around $12 billion, yet it trades at a significant discount compared to its operational targets, reflecting a mispricing in the market that treats IREN more like a volatile cryptocurrency miner rather than a stable AI infrastructure provider.








