The AI Pharma Surge Is Genuine — Cancer Could Soon Become Chronic Instead of Fatal
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 26 2025
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Should l Buy MRNA?
Source: Benzinga
Pharma Sector Growth: Pharma stocks are experiencing a significant rally, with the Tema Oncology ETF up 45% year-to-date, driven by structural changes in the sector and increasing demand for innovative treatments, particularly in oncology.
Regulatory Clarity and M&A Activity: The regulatory environment is improving, leading to a surge in mergers and acquisitions within the healthcare sector, as companies seek to adapt to rising healthcare demands and replace revenue from expiring patents.
AI's Role in Drug Discovery: Artificial intelligence is enhancing the efficiency of drug discovery processes, making them cheaper and faster, although it has not yet taken over the discovery of new molecules.
Future of Cancer Treatment: Innovations such as gene editing and potential cancer vaccines could transform cancer from a deadly disease into a manageable chronic condition, with companies like Merck and Moderna leading the charge in this area.
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Analyst Views on MRNA
Wall Street analysts forecast MRNA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MRNA is 29.36 USD with a low forecast of 17.00 USD and a high forecast of 63.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
19 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
14 Hold
4 Sell
Hold
Current: 40.510
Low
17.00
Averages
29.36
High
63.00
Current: 40.510
Low
17.00
Averages
29.36
High
63.00
About MRNA
Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company. The Company is advancing a new class of medicines made of messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA). It is developing therapeutics and vaccines for infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases and autoimmune diseases. mRNA medicines are designed to direct the body’s cells to produce intracellular, membrane or secreted proteins that have a therapeutic or preventive benefit with the potential to address a spectrum of diseases. The Company’s diverse development pipeline consists of 44 therapeutic and vaccine programs, 11 of which are in late-stage development. Its commercial products include Spikevax (its COVID vaccine) and mRESVIA (its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine). Additionally, it has achieved four positive Phase III data readouts for its COVID vaccine (mRNA-1283), its RSV vaccine for high-risk adults aged 18 to 59 (mRNA-1345), its seasonal flu+COVID vaccine (mRNA-1083), and its seasonal flu vaccine (mRNA-1010).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Moderna's Stock Rises Due to Pipeline Progress
- Strong Stock Performance: Moderna's shares have surged 39% in 2026, despite the absence of recent financial results, indicating market confidence in its future potential ahead of the upcoming Q4 2025 earnings report.
- Pipeline Candidate Progress: The combination of mRNA-4157 and Merck's Keytruda has shown a significant reduction in disease recurrence or death in advanced melanoma patients, bolstering investor confidence in Moderna's cancer vaccine prospects, which could become a vital revenue source.
- Influenza Vaccine Submission: Moderna has submitted its mRNA-1010 influenza vaccine candidate for approval targeting adults aged 50 and older, expected to address the low efficacy issues in the flu vaccine market, particularly benefiting elderly patients.
- Declining Revenue Expectations: While Moderna anticipates revenue between $1.6 billion and $2 billion for 2025, the regulatory pressures in the coronavirus vaccine market may lead to declining sales, highlighting the challenges and opportunities the company faces during its transformation.
See More
MODERNA STOCK PLUMMETS 11.5% FOLLOWING US FDA'S DECISION NOT TO EVALUATE COMPANY'S INFLUENZA VACCINE APPLICATION
Moderna's Stock Reaction: Moderna's shares dropped by 11.5% following the refusal of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to review the company's influenza vaccine application.
FDA's Decision Impact: The FDA's decision not to review the influenza vaccine application has raised concerns about the future of Moderna's vaccine development efforts.
See More
FDA Declines to Review Approval for Moderna's New Flu Vaccine - WSJ
- FDA Refusal: The FDA has declined to consider the approval of Moderna's new flu vaccine.
- Impact on Public Health: This decision may affect the availability of new flu vaccination options for the upcoming flu season.
See More
MODERNA: U.S. FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION ISSUES REFUSAL-TO-FILE LETTER FOR MRNA-1010 SEASONAL INFLUENZA VACCINE CANDIDATE
Regulatory Update: Moderna has received a refusal letter from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration regarding its investigational seasonal influenza vaccine, mRNA-1010.
Vaccine Details: The vaccine is designed to target multiple strains of the influenza virus, but the FDA's decision indicates concerns that need to be addressed before moving forward.
See More
Moderna's Vaccine Application Rejected, Stock Drops
- Vaccine Application Rejection: The FDA's refusal to review Moderna's flu vaccine application mRNA-1010, citing inadequate trial design, caused the stock to drop over 3% in a single trading session, putting pressure on the company's short-term growth outlook.
- Market Performance Review: Moderna's stock soared over 700% in 2020, with vaccine sales exceeding $18 billion in 2022; however, as pandemic demand waned, the company had to implement cost cuts and realign its pipeline towards seasonal vaccines and oncology opportunities.
- R&D Progress and Challenges: While Moderna has made strides in oncology and rare disease therapeutics, its cytomegalovirus vaccine candidate failed in a phase 3 trial, highlighting the uncertainties in its R&D efforts that could impact future revenue streams.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Despite facing near-term challenges, Moderna's mRNA technology holds significant long-term growth potential, and if the company can launch new products in the coming years, it may enter a new era of growth, making it an attractive buy for investors during this dip.
See More
Moderna's Q4 Earnings Report Preview
- Earnings Expectations: Moderna is set to report its Q4 results on February 13, with Wall Street anticipating a loss of $2.64 per share on revenue of $623.93 million, reflecting a 35.4% year-over-year decline as COVID-related sales normalize.
- Profitability Forecast Fluctuations: Over the past three months, EPS forecasts have seen eight upward revisions against four downward, indicating some stabilization in profitability expectations, yet revenue estimates weakened with nine downward revisions compared to two upward, highlighting ongoing top-line pressures.
- Future Outlook: Moderna reiterated its goal of achieving up to 10% revenue growth by 2026 as it expands its seasonal vaccine franchise and reduces costs, while projecting full-year 2025 revenue of approximately $1.9 billion, exceeding the previous midpoint estimate.
- Policy Challenges: Despite a nearly 36% rise in share price year-to-date, the CEO stated that Moderna will not fund further late-stage vaccine development due to reduced government support for immunizations, which could impact the company's long-term growth strategy.
See More
Moderna's Stock Rises Due to Pipeline Progress
- Strong Stock Performance: Moderna's shares have surged 39% in 2026, despite the absence of recent financial results, indicating market confidence in its future potential ahead of the upcoming Q4 2025 earnings report.
- Pipeline Candidate Progress: The combination of mRNA-4157 and Merck's Keytruda has shown a significant reduction in disease recurrence or death in advanced melanoma patients, bolstering investor confidence in Moderna's cancer vaccine prospects, which could become a vital revenue source.
- Influenza Vaccine Submission: Moderna has submitted its mRNA-1010 influenza vaccine candidate for approval targeting adults aged 50 and older, expected to address the low efficacy issues in the flu vaccine market, particularly benefiting elderly patients.
- Declining Revenue Expectations: While Moderna anticipates revenue between $1.6 billion and $2 billion for 2025, the regulatory pressures in the coronavirus vaccine market may lead to declining sales, highlighting the challenges and opportunities the company faces during its transformation.
See More
MODERNA STOCK PLUMMETS 11.5% FOLLOWING US FDA'S DECISION NOT TO EVALUATE COMPANY'S INFLUENZA VACCINE APPLICATION
Moderna's Stock Reaction: Moderna's shares dropped by 11.5% following the refusal of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to review the company's influenza vaccine application.
FDA's Decision Impact: The FDA's decision not to review the influenza vaccine application has raised concerns about the future of Moderna's vaccine development efforts.
See More
FDA Declines to Review Approval for Moderna's New Flu Vaccine - WSJ
- FDA Refusal: The FDA has declined to consider the approval of Moderna's new flu vaccine.
- Impact on Public Health: This decision may affect the availability of new flu vaccination options for the upcoming flu season.
See More
MODERNA: U.S. FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION ISSUES REFUSAL-TO-FILE LETTER FOR MRNA-1010 SEASONAL INFLUENZA VACCINE CANDIDATE
Regulatory Update: Moderna has received a refusal letter from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration regarding its investigational seasonal influenza vaccine, mRNA-1010.
Vaccine Details: The vaccine is designed to target multiple strains of the influenza virus, but the FDA's decision indicates concerns that need to be addressed before moving forward.
See More
Moderna's Vaccine Application Rejected, Stock Drops
- Vaccine Application Rejection: The FDA's refusal to review Moderna's flu vaccine application mRNA-1010, citing inadequate trial design, caused the stock to drop over 3% in a single trading session, putting pressure on the company's short-term growth outlook.
- Market Performance Review: Moderna's stock soared over 700% in 2020, with vaccine sales exceeding $18 billion in 2022; however, as pandemic demand waned, the company had to implement cost cuts and realign its pipeline towards seasonal vaccines and oncology opportunities.
- R&D Progress and Challenges: While Moderna has made strides in oncology and rare disease therapeutics, its cytomegalovirus vaccine candidate failed in a phase 3 trial, highlighting the uncertainties in its R&D efforts that could impact future revenue streams.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Despite facing near-term challenges, Moderna's mRNA technology holds significant long-term growth potential, and if the company can launch new products in the coming years, it may enter a new era of growth, making it an attractive buy for investors during this dip.
See More
Moderna's Q4 Earnings Report Preview
- Earnings Expectations: Moderna is set to report its Q4 results on February 13, with Wall Street anticipating a loss of $2.64 per share on revenue of $623.93 million, reflecting a 35.4% year-over-year decline as COVID-related sales normalize.
- Profitability Forecast Fluctuations: Over the past three months, EPS forecasts have seen eight upward revisions against four downward, indicating some stabilization in profitability expectations, yet revenue estimates weakened with nine downward revisions compared to two upward, highlighting ongoing top-line pressures.
- Future Outlook: Moderna reiterated its goal of achieving up to 10% revenue growth by 2026 as it expands its seasonal vaccine franchise and reduces costs, while projecting full-year 2025 revenue of approximately $1.9 billion, exceeding the previous midpoint estimate.
- Policy Challenges: Despite a nearly 36% rise in share price year-to-date, the CEO stated that Moderna will not fund further late-stage vaccine development due to reduced government support for immunizations, which could impact the company's long-term growth strategy.
See More
