Tesla's Optimus Robot Outlook Remains Uncertain
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 10 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TSLA?
Source: Benzinga
- Market Skepticism: Despite Elon Musk touting the Optimus robot as Tesla's most significant long-term value driver, prediction market odds from Kalshi indicate only a 21% chance of it being available for sale by 2026, reflecting a broader skepticism about its future performance.
- Delayed Revenue Contribution: Should Tesla fail to meet its internal production milestones in 2025, the odds in prediction markets may drop further, impacting revenue expectations at a time when the company's car-based revenue is already declining.
- Intensifying Competition: Hyundai Motor Co. emerges as Tesla's primary rival in the humanoid space, with its Boston Dynamics unit recently commencing pilot deployments of the electric Atlas bot, meaning a delay from Tesla could allow Hyundai to capture significant enterprise market share.
- Musk's Timing Reputation: While Musk is known for achieving
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Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to rise
30 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
7 Sell
Hold
Current: 381.260
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Current: 381.260
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Tesla's Market Dominance: Tesla dominates the EV leasing market, having leased nearly 229,000 vehicles last year, which is significantly more than the combined total of General Motors and Ford, highlighting its strong industry influence.
- Investor Confidence Reminder: Despite the challenges posed by off-lease EV depreciation, Tesla's finance arm collaborates with third-party lenders, allowing it to mitigate most of the leasing losses, suggesting that investors need not panic just yet.
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- Stock Price Surge: Following the news of SpaceX's impending IPO, stocks of companies like AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, and Firefly Aerospace surged by 12%, 11.78%, and nearly 20% respectively, reflecting growing market confidence in the space economy.
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