Tesla's EV Sales Struggles Highlighted in This Chart — and the Situation is Set to Deteriorate Further
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 17 2025
0mins
Should l Buy TSLA?
Source: MarketWatch
Sales Performance Decline: Tesla is projected to experience its worst U.S. sales performance since 2022, with an estimated 125,937 electric vehicles sold between October and December, marking a decline of over 22% compared to the previous year.
Industry Estimates: The sales forecast is based on estimates from industry research firm Cox Automotive, highlighting the challenges Tesla faces in maintaining its market position.
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Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TSLA is 401.93 USD with a low forecast of 25.28 USD and a high forecast of 600.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
30 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
7 Sell
Hold
Current: 428.270
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Current: 428.270
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Capital Expenditure Plans: Tesla anticipates capital expenditures exceeding $20 billion in 2026, a substantial increase from $8.5 billion in 2025, aimed at starting production at new factories and advancing technology development, reflecting the company's ambitious growth strategy.
- Market Competition Pressure: While Tesla experienced sales growth in the Asia-Pacific region, the company warned of potential margin compression across all business segments, indicating the need for continuous innovation to maintain its market leadership amid intense competition.
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- Market Reaction: According to Cox Automotive, EVs peaked at 10.3% of the new vehicle market in September, just before federal incentives ended, but sales plummeted afterward, indicating a direct impact of policy changes on consumer demand for electric vehicles.
- Industry Opposition: Automakers like Tesla oppose the EPA's decision, arguing that reversing the endangerment finding undermines the regulatory framework that supports investments in EVs, potentially harming consumer choice and economic benefits while affecting the integrated North American automotive sector.
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See More
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- EPA Decision Reversal: The EPA's decision to no longer regulate greenhouse gases, based on its interpretation of the Clean Air Act, could pose significant challenges for the U.S. electric vehicle market, especially as global competition in EVs intensifies.
- Decline in EV Sales: Following the removal of federal tax credits, EV sales plummeted in October, dropping from 10.3% market share in September, highlighting a disconnect between consumer demand and policy support that may hinder future market growth.
- Automaker Responses: Ford has expressed support for a unified national standard, arguing that current emissions regulations do not align with consumer choices, reflecting the automotive industry's divisions over environmental policies, particularly between EVs and traditional vehicles.
- Tesla's Position: Tesla opposes the EPA's reconsideration of the endangerment finding, asserting that this regulatory framework has provided stability for its investments in product development, warning that abandoning fuel-efficiency goals could negatively impact consumer choice and economic benefits.
See More
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- Memory Shortage Risks: Lenovo confirmed mounting pressure on PC shipments, with CEO Yang Yuanqing stating that while unit pressures are expected, the company aims to maintain profitability, reflecting growing concerns over memory shortages in the industry.
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See More
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- Sector's Future Uncertain: While the tech sector may still have potential, it appears it will need to share attention with other emerging trends.
See More
