Tesla's EV Sales Struggles Highlighted in This Chart — and the Situation is Set to Deteriorate Further

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

TSLA-0.83%

F-0.66%

GM-2.32%

Source: MarketWatch

Updated: Dec 17 2025

0mins

Source: MarketWatch

Sales Performance Decline: Tesla is projected to experience its worst U.S. sales performance since 2022, with an estimated 125,937 electric vehicles sold between October and December, marking a decline of over 22% compared to the previous year.
Industry Estimates: The sales forecast is based on estimates from industry research firm Cox Automotive, highlighting the challenges Tesla faces in maintaining its market position.

TSLA

$445.64+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on TSLA

Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TSLA is 401.93 USD with a low forecast of 25.28 USD and a high forecast of 600.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

30 Analyst Rating

12 Buy

11 Hold

7 Sell

Hold

Current: 449.360

Low

25.28

Averages

401.93

High

600.00

Current: 449.360

Low

25.28

Averages

401.93

High

600.00

Barclays

Dan Levy

Equal Weight

maintain

$350 -> $360

2026-01-23

New

Reason

Barclays

Dan Levy

Price Target

$350 -> $360

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

New

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays analyst Dan Levy raised the firm's price target on Tesla to $360 from $350 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the autos and mobility group as part of a Q4 preview. Barclays continue to prefer the car markers, saying they are benefiting from "healthy" production rates and reduced electric vehicle losses.

Morgan Stanley

Equal Weight

maintain

$425

2026-01-22

New

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$425

2026-01-22

New

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Lemonade's (LMND) launch of autonomous car insurance tied to Tesla's (TSLA) full self-driving system marks a meaningful validation of autonomous driving by the insurance industry, with pricing that reflects lower risk for FSD-driven miles and discounts of up to 50%, Morgan Stanley tells investors in a research note. This external endorsement strengthens Tesla's value proposition, could accelerate FSD adoption, and supports an Equal Weight rating with a $425 price target on the shares, the firm says.

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GLJ Research

Gordon Johnson

Sell

maintain

2026-01-07

Reason

GLJ Research

Gordon Johnson

Price Target

2026-01-07

maintain

Sell

Reason

GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson raised the firm's price target on Tesla to $25.28 from $19.05 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares as the firm is adjusting Q4 estimates for "reality rather than narrative." With 418,000 in Q4 deliveries, a Q4 mix-shift toward heavily discounted Model Ys outside of China and Q4 being the first quarter in which U.S. automakers are no longer federally mandated to buy ZEV credits from Telsa, the "earnings math deteriorates quickly," says the analyst, who expects the company's decline in global deliveries to accelerate to 15.0% year-over-year in 2026.

Truist

William Stein

Hold

downgrade

$444 -> $439

2026-01-02

Reason

Truist

William Stein

Price Target

$444 -> $439

2026-01-02

downgrade

Hold

Reason

Truist analyst William Stein lowered the firm's price target on Tesla to $439 from $444 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares after the company announced it delivered 418k units in Q4 2025, below consensus and the firm's estimate. Truist interprets the stock's bounce as "better than feared." Energy storage deployments beat consensus. The firm asserts investors should be more focused on AI projects, especially FSD. Truist views AI developments as far more important than auto deliveries for Tesla's long-term cash generation and stock performance.

About TSLA

Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.