Ternium Q4 2025 Earnings Report Analysis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 22 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy TX?
Source: seekingalpha
- Disappointing Earnings: Ternium reported a GAAP EPS of $0.62 for Q4 2025, missing estimates by $0.28, indicating pressure on profitability that could affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The fourth-quarter revenue of $3.77 billion represents a 2.8% year-over-year decrease, falling short of expectations, reflecting weak market demand that may lead to future performance challenges.
- Stable Adjusted EBITDA: Despite the revenue drop, adjusted EBITDA slightly decreased to $395 million, indicating some cost control capabilities, but overall profitability remains a concern.
- Optimistic Outlook: Ternium anticipates an increase in adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026, primarily driven by rising shipments in Mexico, demonstrating the company's confidence in market recovery.
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Analyst Views on TX
Wall Street analysts forecast TX stock price to fall
4 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 43.250
Low
39.00
Averages
40.13
High
41.00
Current: 43.250
Low
39.00
Averages
40.13
High
41.00
About TX
Ternium S.A. is a producer of steel products. The Company produces finished and semi-finished steel products and iron ore, which are sold either directly to steel manufacturers, steel processors or end users. The Company operates through two segments: Steel and Mining. The Steel segment includes the sales of steel products, and the Mining segment includes the sales of iron ore products, which are primarily inter-company. The Steel segment comprises three operating segments: Mexico, the Southern Region, and Other Markets. In the steel segment, steel products include slabs, billets, and round bars (steel in its basic, semi-finished state), hot-rolled coils and sheets, bars and stirrups, wire rods, cold-rolled coils and sheets, tin plate, hot dipped galvanized and electrogalvanized sheets and pre-painted sheets, steel pipes and tubular products, beams, roll-formed products, and other products. In the mining segment, iron ore is sold as concentrates (fines) and pellets.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Ternium to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 18
- Earnings Announcement Date: Ternium is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings report on February 18 before the market opens, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.77, reflecting a substantial year-over-year increase of 283.3%, indicating significant improvement in profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: Despite the optimistic EPS outlook, the revenue estimate stands at $3.78 billion, representing a 2.3% year-over-year decline, suggesting challenges in revenue growth that could impact overall financial performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Ternium has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, indicating a high level of reliability in earnings forecasts, which bolsters investor confidence.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and two downward revisions, while revenue estimates saw one upward revision and two downward revisions, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding the company's future performance.
See More
Ternium Proposes $1.80/ADS Interim Dividend Amid Market Challenges
- Dividend Proposal: Ternium's board has proposed an interim dividend of $1.80 per ADS, totaling $353 million, reflecting the company's ongoing profitability amid trade-driven market challenges, indicating resilience despite external pressures.
- Annual Dividend Plan: The company plans to pay an annual dividend of $2.70 per ADS, amounting to $530 million based on total outstanding shares, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholders and stable cash flow amidst market volatility.
- Interim Dividend Details: The interim dividend is set to be paid on May 15, with a record date of May 14 and an ex-dividend date also on May 14, ensuring shareholders receive timely returns and bolstering investor confidence in the company's financial health.
- Financial Performance Overview: Despite Ternium's GAAP EPS of $0.62 missing estimates by $0.28 and revenue of $3.77 billion falling short by $10 million, the company's ability to maintain dividend payments highlights its resilience in a challenging market environment.
See More
Ternium Q4 2025 Earnings Report Analysis
- Disappointing Earnings: Ternium reported a GAAP EPS of $0.62 for Q4 2025, missing estimates by $0.28, indicating pressure on profitability that could affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The fourth-quarter revenue of $3.77 billion represents a 2.8% year-over-year decrease, falling short of expectations, reflecting weak market demand that may lead to future performance challenges.
- Stable Adjusted EBITDA: Despite the revenue drop, adjusted EBITDA slightly decreased to $395 million, indicating some cost control capabilities, but overall profitability remains a concern.
- Optimistic Outlook: Ternium anticipates an increase in adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026, primarily driven by rising shipments in Mexico, demonstrating the company's confidence in market recovery.
See More
Exploring Undervalued Potential Stocks
- Investment Opportunities: Analyst Tyler Crowe emphasizes that while many investors focus on large companies, significant investment opportunities still exist within smaller firms, particularly those that are not widely recognized.
- Market Potential: Crowe points out that certain lesser-known stocks could evolve into larger businesses in the future, suggesting that investors willing to look beyond mainstream options may reap substantial rewards.
- Investment Strategy: By focusing on these undervalued stocks, investors can uncover unique opportunities in a competitive market, thereby enhancing portfolio diversification and potential returns.
- Long-Term Perspective: Crowe's analysis indicates that while these stocks may not be valued in the short term, they have the potential to become market leaders in the long run, making them worthy of investor attention.
See More
POSCO Holdings Partners with Yaskawa Electric to Enhance Automation in Mobility Parts Production
- Agreement Signing: POSCO Mobility Solutions, Yaskawa Electric, and POSCO DX signed a tripartite agreement on January 14 in Cheonan to accelerate advanced automation in global mobility parts operations, enhancing production efficiency.
- Robotic System Introduction: The new system will support the production of drive motor cores, expected to improve safety, reduce manual workload, and boost production speed, aiding the manufacturing of critical components for electric and hybrid vehicles.
- International Expansion: The automation rollout will cover plants in Cheonan and Pohang, as well as international facilities in Poland, Mexico, and India, further enhancing POSCO's competitiveness in the global market.
- Technical Integration and Support: POSCO DX will oversee system design and integration to ensure seamless compatibility with existing production lines, while Yaskawa will provide high-precision robots and technical support, facilitating the company's transition to intelligent factories.
See More
Ternium S.A. (TX) Stock Gains 14.3% Over 12 Weeks Indicating Strong Momentum
- Significant Price Momentum: Ternium S.A.'s stock has increased by 4.8% over the past four weeks, reflecting growing investor interest and enhancing market expectations for its future performance.
- Long-Term Return Potential: The stock has gained 14.3% over the past 12 weeks, demonstrating its capability as a momentum stock and indicating strong resilience amid market volatility.
- Excellent Momentum Score: Ternium S.A. currently holds a Momentum Score of A, suggesting that entering the stock in the current market environment has a high probability of success, enabling investors to capitalize on rapid growth opportunities.
- Valuation Advantage: With a Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.51, investors only need to pay 51 cents for each dollar of sales, indicating that the stock possesses good investment value while exhibiting strong momentum.
See More
Ternium to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 18
- Earnings Announcement Date: Ternium is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings report on February 18 before the market opens, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.77, reflecting a substantial year-over-year increase of 283.3%, indicating significant improvement in profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: Despite the optimistic EPS outlook, the revenue estimate stands at $3.78 billion, representing a 2.3% year-over-year decline, suggesting challenges in revenue growth that could impact overall financial performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Ternium has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, indicating a high level of reliability in earnings forecasts, which bolsters investor confidence.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and two downward revisions, while revenue estimates saw one upward revision and two downward revisions, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding the company's future performance.
See More
Ternium Proposes $1.80/ADS Interim Dividend Amid Market Challenges
- Dividend Proposal: Ternium's board has proposed an interim dividend of $1.80 per ADS, totaling $353 million, reflecting the company's ongoing profitability amid trade-driven market challenges, indicating resilience despite external pressures.
- Annual Dividend Plan: The company plans to pay an annual dividend of $2.70 per ADS, amounting to $530 million based on total outstanding shares, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholders and stable cash flow amidst market volatility.
- Interim Dividend Details: The interim dividend is set to be paid on May 15, with a record date of May 14 and an ex-dividend date also on May 14, ensuring shareholders receive timely returns and bolstering investor confidence in the company's financial health.
- Financial Performance Overview: Despite Ternium's GAAP EPS of $0.62 missing estimates by $0.28 and revenue of $3.77 billion falling short by $10 million, the company's ability to maintain dividend payments highlights its resilience in a challenging market environment.
See More
Ternium Q4 2025 Earnings Report Analysis
- Disappointing Earnings: Ternium reported a GAAP EPS of $0.62 for Q4 2025, missing estimates by $0.28, indicating pressure on profitability that could affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The fourth-quarter revenue of $3.77 billion represents a 2.8% year-over-year decrease, falling short of expectations, reflecting weak market demand that may lead to future performance challenges.
- Stable Adjusted EBITDA: Despite the revenue drop, adjusted EBITDA slightly decreased to $395 million, indicating some cost control capabilities, but overall profitability remains a concern.
- Optimistic Outlook: Ternium anticipates an increase in adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026, primarily driven by rising shipments in Mexico, demonstrating the company's confidence in market recovery.
See More
Exploring Undervalued Potential Stocks
- Investment Opportunities: Analyst Tyler Crowe emphasizes that while many investors focus on large companies, significant investment opportunities still exist within smaller firms, particularly those that are not widely recognized.
- Market Potential: Crowe points out that certain lesser-known stocks could evolve into larger businesses in the future, suggesting that investors willing to look beyond mainstream options may reap substantial rewards.
- Investment Strategy: By focusing on these undervalued stocks, investors can uncover unique opportunities in a competitive market, thereby enhancing portfolio diversification and potential returns.
- Long-Term Perspective: Crowe's analysis indicates that while these stocks may not be valued in the short term, they have the potential to become market leaders in the long run, making them worthy of investor attention.
See More
POSCO Holdings Partners with Yaskawa Electric to Enhance Automation in Mobility Parts Production
- Agreement Signing: POSCO Mobility Solutions, Yaskawa Electric, and POSCO DX signed a tripartite agreement on January 14 in Cheonan to accelerate advanced automation in global mobility parts operations, enhancing production efficiency.
- Robotic System Introduction: The new system will support the production of drive motor cores, expected to improve safety, reduce manual workload, and boost production speed, aiding the manufacturing of critical components for electric and hybrid vehicles.
- International Expansion: The automation rollout will cover plants in Cheonan and Pohang, as well as international facilities in Poland, Mexico, and India, further enhancing POSCO's competitiveness in the global market.
- Technical Integration and Support: POSCO DX will oversee system design and integration to ensure seamless compatibility with existing production lines, while Yaskawa will provide high-precision robots and technical support, facilitating the company's transition to intelligent factories.
See More
Ternium S.A. (TX) Stock Gains 14.3% Over 12 Weeks Indicating Strong Momentum
- Significant Price Momentum: Ternium S.A.'s stock has increased by 4.8% over the past four weeks, reflecting growing investor interest and enhancing market expectations for its future performance.
- Long-Term Return Potential: The stock has gained 14.3% over the past 12 weeks, demonstrating its capability as a momentum stock and indicating strong resilience amid market volatility.
- Excellent Momentum Score: Ternium S.A. currently holds a Momentum Score of A, suggesting that entering the stock in the current market environment has a high probability of success, enabling investors to capitalize on rapid growth opportunities.
- Valuation Advantage: With a Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.51, investors only need to pay 51 cents for each dollar of sales, indicating that the stock possesses good investment value while exhibiting strong momentum.
See More
