TX Should I Buy
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Ternium SA (TX) does not present a compelling buy opportunity for a beginner, long-term investor at this moment. While there are some positive catalysts, such as the dividend announcement and bullish technical indicators, the lack of strong proprietary trading signals, weak recent financial performance, and mixed analyst sentiment suggest a cautious approach. Holding the stock or waiting for further clarity on financial performance and market conditions would be more prudent.
The technical indicators for TX are moderately positive. The MACD histogram is above 0 and positively contracting, indicating a bullish trend. The RSI is neutral at 61.077, and moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200). The stock is trading near its pivot level of 41.588, with resistance levels at 43.567 and 44.79 and support at 39.61 and 38.387.
Dividend announcement of $1.30 per ADS to be paid on May
Bank of America upgraded the stock to Buy, citing optimism about North American flat steel pricing.
Bullish moving averages and MACD suggest a positive price trend.
Financial performance in Q4 2025 showed significant declines in revenue (-2.61% YoY), net income (-56.51% YoY), and EPS (-57.14% YoY).
Mixed analyst ratings, with some downgrades and concerns about U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement renegotiation and steel tariffs.
Lack of significant hedge fund or insider trading activity.
In Q4 2025, Ternium's revenue dropped by 2.61% YoY to $3.77 billion, net income fell by 56.51% YoY to $122.2 million, and EPS declined by 57.14% YoY to $0.06. However, gross margin improved by 37.73% YoY to 15.99%. Overall, the financial performance indicates challenges in profitability and growth.
Analyst sentiment is mixed. JPMorgan and Bank of America have raised price targets and issued positive ratings, citing optimism about North American flat steel pricing. However, Wells Fargo and Scotiabank have maintained negative or neutral stances, citing concerns about trade agreements, tariffs, and oversupply risks. The average price target range is between $36 and $46, with the current pre-market price of $42.18 sitting within this range.
