Tariffs an 'incremental negative' for U.S. steel companies, says UBS
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 03 2025
0mins
Should l Buy STLD?
Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Steel Companies: President Trump's new tariffs, including a 10% tariff for all countries and additional tariffs affecting 185 countries, are seen as a negative factor for U.S. steel companies due to concerns over demand destruction, according to UBS analyst Andrew Jones.
Market Ratings and Production Concerns: UBS maintains Buy ratings on Steel Dynamics and Nucor while issuing a Sell rating on Posco; the firm notes that the lack of new auto tariffs beyond the previously announced 25% could lead to a reduction in North American steel production by 1.5 million units.
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Analyst Views on STLD
Wall Street analysts forecast STLD stock price to fall
7 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 191.920
Low
185.00
Averages
190.71
High
195.00
Current: 191.920
Low
185.00
Averages
190.71
High
195.00
About STLD
Steel Dynamics, Inc. is an industrial metals solutions company. Its Steel Operations segment consists of its EAF steel mills, producing steel from ferrous scrap and scrap substitutes, utilizing continuous casting and automated rolling mills, and numerous steel coating, processing lines and warehouse operations. Its Metals Recycling Operations segment includes its OmniSource ferrous and nonferrous processing, transportation, marketing, brokerage, and scrap management services primarily throughout the United States and in Central and Northern Mexico. Its Steel Fabrication Operations segment includes its New Millennium Building Systems’ joist and deck plants located throughout the United States, and in Northern Mexico. Its Aluminum Operations segment includes the recycled aluminum flat rolled products mill being constructed in Columbus, Mississippi, and two satellite recycled aluminum slab centers in the southwest United States and Central Mexico.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Premium Analysis: The revised offer implies a 56% premium to BlueScope's 52-week volume-weighted average share price and a 32% premium to its 15-year high, indicating SGH and Steel Dynamics' strong confidence in BlueScope's valuation, potentially garnering more shareholder support.
- Strategic Alignment: SGH plans to sell BlueScope's North American operations to Steel Dynamics post-transaction while retaining its Australia and Rest of World operations, a strategy that will enhance SGH's competitiveness in the global market and optimize resource allocation.
- Regulatory Approval Outlook: The proposal is subject to customary regulatory approvals, and SGH and Steel Dynamics believe there are no material obstacles, which is expected to facilitate a smooth progression and further solidify their market position in the steel industry.
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- Steel Dynamics' Interest: Steel Dynamics is keen on acquiring BlueScope Steel's North Star mill located in Ohio.
- Strategic Move: This acquisition aligns with Steel Dynamics' growth strategy and expansion in the steel industry.
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- Acquisition Proposal Overview: SGH and Steel Dynamics have submitted a revised non-binding offer to acquire 100% of BlueScope Steel at an all-cash price of A$32.35 per share, valuing the company at approximately A$15 billion (US$11 billion), indicating strong acquisition intent.
- Final Offer Statement: This bid is regarded as SGH and Steel Dynamics' best and final offer unless a superior competing proposal arises, reflecting their determination and confidence in acquiring BlueScope.
- Operational Integration Plan: Upon completion of the transaction, SGH will retain BlueScope's operations in Australia and the Rest of World, while selling its North American operations to Steel Dynamics, a strategic move aimed at optimizing market positioning for both companies.
- Regulatory Expectations: SGH and Steel Dynamics have stated that they do not expect to encounter significant regulatory obstacles, which provides confidence for the smooth progression of the deal and may expedite the acquisition process.
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- Stock Surge: Algoma Steel (ASTL) saw an 11.1% increase in Friday's trading, primarily driven by reports of Trump considering rolling back steel and aluminum tariffs, indicating a positive market reaction to potential policy changes.
- Tariff Impact: Trump's 50% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum aim to curb the flow of Chinese metals, yet U.S. Commerce Department officials believe these tariffs are raising consumer prices for goods like auto parts and food cans, highlighting a conflict between trade policy and consumer interests.
- Market Response: Unlike U.S. steelmakers, Algoma Steel's shares surged on the potential tariff rollback news, although the stock remains down 45% from a year ago, reflecting ongoing pressures from tariffs and duties imposed by its largest trading partner.
- Competitive Pressure: In the U.S. market, Steel Dynamics (STLD) and Nucor (NUE) fell by 3.4% and 2.6%, respectively, illustrating the negative impact of tariff policies on the industry, while Algoma Steel's rise underscores its relative advantage in the current environment.
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