Super Micro Faces Key Customer Fallout with Oracle
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
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Should l Buy SMCI?
Source: Fool
- Order Cancellation Impact: Oracle's cancellation of an order for 300 to 400 Super Micro GB300 NVL72 server racks has led to a 7.6% drop in Super Micro's stock by 10:30 a.m., indicating strained relations with a key customer that could affect future sales and market confidence.
- Potential Scandal Risk: Analysts suggest that Oracle's move may be an attempt to distance itself from allegations against Super Micro co-founder Yih-Shyan 'Wally' Liaw regarding illicit sales of Nvidia chips to China, which could lead to further contract losses and exacerbate Super Micro's market challenges.
- Sales Decline Trend: Super Micro is also experiencing sales losses to xAI, which may not be directly related to SpaceX's IPO; however, SpaceX's refusal to purchase Super Micro's older B200 GPU chips in favor of faster products from Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise could result in inventory backlog for Super Micro.
- Market Valuation Drop: Despite an 18.5% decline in stock price over the past year, Super Micro's current price-to-earnings ratio stands at 21, and analysts project a 26% growth in earnings over the next five years, suggesting that the investment value of Super Micro may be emerging as risks are priced in.
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Analyst Views on SMCI
Wall Street analysts forecast SMCI stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
5 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 29.180
Low
34.00
Averages
46.82
High
63.00
Current: 29.180
Low
34.00
Averages
46.82
High
63.00
About SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc. is an application-optimized Total IT solutions provider including server, artificial intelligence (AI) systems, storage, information of technology (IoT) devices, switches, software, and support services. Total IT Solutions include complete servers, storage systems, modular blade servers, workstations, full-rack scale solutions, networking devices, server sub-systems, server management and security software. Its products are designed and manufactured in-house (in the United States, Taiwan, and the Netherlands). Its portfolio of Server Building Block Solutions allows customers to optimize for their exact workload and application by selecting from a broad family of systems built from the Company’s flexible and reusable building blocks that support a comprehensive set of form factors, processors, memory, GPUs, storage, networking, power, and cooling solutions (air-conditioned, free air cooling or liquid cooling).
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Order Cancellation Impact: Oracle's cancellation of an order for 300 to 400 Super Micro GB300 NVL72 server racks has led to a 7.6% drop in Super Micro's stock by 10:30 a.m., indicating strained relations with a key customer that could affect future sales and market confidence.
- Potential Scandal Risk: Analysts suggest that Oracle's move may be an attempt to distance itself from allegations against Super Micro co-founder Yih-Shyan 'Wally' Liaw regarding illicit sales of Nvidia chips to China, which could lead to further contract losses and exacerbate Super Micro's market challenges.
- Sales Decline Trend: Super Micro is also experiencing sales losses to xAI, which may not be directly related to SpaceX's IPO; however, SpaceX's refusal to purchase Super Micro's older B200 GPU chips in favor of faster products from Dell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise could result in inventory backlog for Super Micro.
- Market Valuation Drop: Despite an 18.5% decline in stock price over the past year, Super Micro's current price-to-earnings ratio stands at 21, and analysts project a 26% growth in earnings over the next five years, suggesting that the investment value of Super Micro may be emerging as risks are priced in.
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- Order Cancellation Impact: Oracle's cancellation of 300 to 400 Super Micro GB300 NVL72 server racks, each costing $3.5 million, could result in a staggering $1.05 billion to $1.4 billion in lost sales for Super Micro, significantly affecting its financial outlook.
- Shipment Analysis: Despite the order cancellation, Super Micro managed to ship between 100 and 200 racks prior, partially mitigating losses; however, the overall sales outlook remains bleak, especially with increasing competition from xAI.
- Market Reaction: Oracle's stock plummeted 6% in early trading, reflecting market concerns over the deteriorating relationship with Super Micro, as investors express worries about the company's spending and risk management in the AI sector.
- Strategic Adjustment Considerations: Analysts suggest that Oracle's decision to cancel orders may be aimed at distancing itself from allegations involving Super Micro's co-founder related to illicit Nvidia chip sales, while also indicating concerns over overextending in AI investments, highlighting the tension between costs and revenue growth.
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- Order Cancellation Impact: Oracle has canceled an order for 300 to 400 GB300 NVL72 server racks from Super Micro, with potential losses estimated between $1.05 billion and $1.4 billion, significantly impacting Super Micro's sales outlook.
- Market Reaction: Following the news, Oracle's stock fell 6% by 10:05 a.m., reflecting investor concerns over deteriorating relationships with key suppliers, which could adversely affect its future market performance.
- Sales Loss Analysis: Although Super Micro shipped between 100 and 200 racks before the order cancellation, it faces increasing competitive pressure from xAI, exacerbating its sales challenges and highlighting the intensity of market competition.
- Strategic Adjustment Considerations: Oracle's cancellation may stem from allegations against Super Micro's co-founder regarding illegal Nvidia chip sales, and it could also indicate Oracle's desire to reduce order volumes due to perceived overextension in AI investments amid rising costs and stagnant revenue growth.
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- Contract Loss Impact: Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares fell over 10% in premarket trading after BlueFin Research reported the loss of a significant contract with Oracle (ORCL), potentially costing between $1.1 billion and $1.4 billion due to the cancellation of 300 to 400 racks, which could severely impact the company's financial health.
- Legal Issues Intensify: The report suggests that the contract cancellation is related to the indictment of co-founder Yih-Shyan Liaw, who, along with two others, is accused of smuggling $2.5 billion worth of Nvidia (NVDA) chips to China, potentially exposing the company to increased regulatory scrutiny and legal risks.
- Market Reaction: Oracle's shares also fell 2.7% in premarket trading, indicating market sensitivity to the news, as investors express concerns over Super Micro's future prospects, which could affect its competitive position in a high-stakes market.
- Ongoing Investigation: Super Micro has stated that an independent investigation is underway, led by CEO Charles Liang, aiming to restore investor confidence through transparency, but the legal troubles and contract loss may pose significant challenges to its long-term strategy.
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- Market Performance: The NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator is down 61.73 points to 26,875.54, reflecting cautious market sentiment that may influence short-term investor decisions.
- Active Stocks: Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X ETF (TSLL) saw a trading volume of 16,366,582 shares, with a price drop of 0.8095 to $12.12, despite a 55.39% increase from its 52-week low, indicating ongoing market pressure.
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