Speculative Trading in China Drives Gold Price Volatility
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 13 2026
0mins
Should l Buy NEM?
Source: CNBC
- Gold Price Volatility: Gold prices surged to a record high of $5,594 per ounce on January 29, only to plummet nearly 10% the next day, indicating extreme market instability that could undermine investor confidence and affect future pricing strategies.
- Chinese Market Influence: Analysts highlight that retail and institutional investors in China are significantly impacting gold price volatility, with a notable increase in trading activity in gold futures and ETFs, suggesting a speculative nature in the market.
- Increased Leverage Usage: Despite regulators raising margin requirements, trading volumes in gold futures continue to rise, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange averaging nearly 540 tons per day, indicating strong demand for gold that may lead to further price fluctuations.
- Strategic Investment Shift: As gold's share of Chinese household assets is expected to rise from 1% to 5%, the trend of investors seeking higher returns and safe-haven assets may lead to a speculative bubble in the gold market, potentially impacting global gold market stability.
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Analyst Views on NEM
Wall Street analysts forecast NEM stock price to fall
14 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 113.790
Low
89.00
Averages
110.85
High
125.00
Current: 113.790
Low
89.00
Averages
110.85
High
125.00
About NEM
Newmont Corporation is a gold company and a producer of copper, zinc, lead, and silver with operations and/or assets in the Africa, Australia, Latin America & Caribbean, North America, and Papua New Guinea regions. The Company's operations include Brucejack, Red Chris, Penasquito, Merian, Cerro Negro, Yanacocha, Boddington, Tanami, Cadia, Lihir, Ahafo, and NGM. The Brucejack operation includes four mining leases and six core mineral claims which cover 8,169 acres (3,306 hectares) and 337 mineral claims covering 298,795 acres (120,918 hectares). The Red Chris operation includes five mining leases which cover 12,703 acres and 199 mineral claims, encompassing an area of 164,903 acres (66,734 hectares). Penasquito includes 20 mining concessions for operations comprising 113,231 acres (45,823 hectares) and 60 mining concessions for exploration of 107,456 acres (43,486 hectares). The Merian operation includes one right of exploitation encompassing an area of 41,687 acres (16,870 hectares).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Stock Price Opportunities: Despite fluctuations in gold prices since the beginning of the year, Newmont's stock surged 11.7% since last Friday's close, indicating that investors are refocusing on precious metals amid geopolitical tensions, which could further drive stock price increases.
- Future Performance Outlook: Newmont is set to report its first-quarter results on April 23, and the market will closely watch its performance; while macroeconomic and geopolitical factors may sway stock prices, investors should focus on the company's fundamentals.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: As geopolitical issues ease, investors may reconsider investing in Newmont stock, especially against the backdrop of strong company performance, attracting more investors seeking safe assets.
See More
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- Significant Stock Movement: Newmont's stock price surged by 11.7% since last Friday, reflecting renewed investor interest in the gold market, particularly as geopolitical tensions enhance gold's appeal as a safe haven asset.
- Gold Market Dynamics: Despite gold contracts plummeting over 10% since the onset of the Iran war, Newmont's underlying business remains robust, showcasing the company's resilience in uncertain market conditions and likely attracting more investors back.
- Outstanding Cash Flow Performance: Newmont achieved a record $7.3 billion in free cash flow in 2025, with nearly half returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, indicating effective capital management and commitment to shareholders.
- Future Earnings Outlook: Newmont is set to report its first-quarter results on April 23; while macroeconomic and geopolitical factors may sway stock prices, investors should focus on performance results to capitalize on opportunities to add Newmont shares during price dips.
See More
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- Strong Cash Flow: Newmont achieved a record free cash flow of $7.3 billion in 2025, with nearly half returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, demonstrating the company's financial health and ability to attract more investor attention.
- Geopolitical Impact: Gold contracts have plunged over 10% since the onset of the Iran war, yet Newmont's underlying business remains robust, suggesting that as geopolitical tensions ease, investors are likely to refocus on gold and Newmont stock.
- Future Earnings Outlook: Newmont is set to report its first-quarter results on April 23, and while macroeconomic and geopolitical factors may sway stock prices, investors should concentrate on the earnings results to seize potential investment opportunities.
See More
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- Oil Price Surge: Crude oil prices soared over 13% as President Trump took a tougher stance on Iran, reaching a 3.5-week high, which not only heightened inflation fears but also pushed bond yields higher, with the 10-year T-note yield rising by 2 basis points to 4.34%.
- Unemployment Claims Drop: Weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell by 9,000 to 202,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the anticipated increase to 212,000, which could provide support for the stock market amid rising inflation concerns.
- Global Market Decline: Overseas stock markets are lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 2.25%, China's Shanghai Composite down 0.74%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 sharply falling 2.38% from a two-week high, reflecting global economic uncertainty and investor caution.
- Airline Stocks Plummet: Airline stocks are sharply lower as crude oil prices surged over 10%, raising fuel costs; United Airlines and American Airlines Group both fell more than 6%, highlighting the direct impact of rising oil prices on airline profitability.
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- Nike's Bleak Sales Outlook: Nike anticipates a 20% decline in sales in China for the current quarter, resulting in a more than 2% drop in stock price, highlighting increasing challenges the company faces in the global market that could impact future profitability.
- Globalstar Stock Surge: Globalstar shares rose 9% following reports that Amazon is in talks to acquire the company, although Amazon declined to comment, the optimism surrounding the potential acquisition boosted the stock price significantly.
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See More
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- Newmont Investment Opportunity: JR Research upgrades Newmont to Buy, noting that amid the selloff in gold mining stocks, Newmont's valuation is below historical averages, with production growth projects supporting future expansion, enticing patient investors to double down.
- Micron Downgrade: The Techie downgrades Micron Technology to Sell, stating that despite exceptional Q2 results, the market's negative reaction indicates that positives were already priced in, with rising capex expected to compress free cash flow.
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See More
