Software Stock Bubble Bursts, Figma and Axon Show Promising Outlook
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 26 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AXON?
Source: Fool
- Figma Stock Decline: Figma's stock has plummeted 74% since its IPO, currently valued at only $10 billion, significantly below Adobe's acquisition offer, yet the company is rapidly growing and achieving GAAP profitability, indicating strong potential in the AI sector.
- Strong Revenue Growth: Figma reported a 40% revenue increase in Q4, reaching $303.8 million, with a net dollar retention rate of 136%, reflecting a 36% revenue growth from existing customers, laying a solid foundation for future growth.
- Axon Enterprise Performance: Axon Enterprise saw a 39% revenue increase to $797 million, with adjusted EBITDA rising 46%, showcasing its leadership in law enforcement technology and robust market demand.
- AI Investment Outlook: Axon introduced the generative AI tool Draft One and forecasts $8 billion in revenue by 2028, implying an annual growth rate of about 30%, demonstrating the company's proactive strategy in AI and its future growth potential.
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Analyst Views on AXON
Wall Street analysts forecast AXON stock price to rise
15 Analyst Rating
14 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 423.570
Low
610.00
Averages
800.38
High
925.00
Current: 423.570
Low
610.00
Averages
800.38
High
925.00
About AXON
Axon Enterprise, Inc. is a technology company that provides integrated hardware and software solutions. The Company's products and services allow customers across the public and private sector to capture and use critical data to support fully-connected operational workflows. The Software and Services segment include the development, manufacturing and sale of cloud-based Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) solutions that leverage AI and enable its customers to capture, securely store, manage, share and analyze video and other digital evidence. Its offerings include Axon Evidence, Draft One, Axon Records, Axon Standards, Axon Fusus, and Axon Assistant, among others. Its Connected Devices segment develops, manufactures and sells fully integrated hardware solutions such as conducted energy devices (CEDs) sold under the TASER brand, body cameras, fixed and in-car cameras, drone and counter-drone technologies, and a broad ecosystem of accessories, extended warranties and related hardware products.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Strategic Agreement Negotiations: Micron is negotiating 3-5 year strategic agreements with hyperscalers to lock in base volumes and adjust quarterly pricing, which should support contract prices; despite a target price reduction from $510 to $425, it still offers a 32% upside.
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- Cost-Effectiveness Demand: Defense Secretary's warning against using $2 million missiles to shoot down $20,000 drones highlights the urgent need for defense tech companies to accelerate the development of low-cost drones to meet modern warfare demands.
- Market Opportunities: The U.S. Department of Defense consumed $5.6 billion in munitions within two days of the Iran war outbreak, indicating a pressing need for new drone and counter-drone technologies, which is rapidly boosting valuations and market shares of related startups.
- Accelerated Technological Innovation: The U.S. has introduced the Low-cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System (LUCAS), priced at approximately $35,000, which is becoming a key technology in countering Iranian drone threats and is expected to attract more defense budget allocations.
- Intensified Industry Competition: Although spending in the defense tech sector accounted for less than 1% of contract dollars in 2025, startups like Anduril and Palantir have secured multi-billion dollar contracts, reflecting strong market demand for high-tech solutions.
See More
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- Drone Technology Deployment: The U.S. has deployed the Low-cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System (LUCAS) in the Iran war, costing approximately $35,000 per unit, marking one of the few new systems emerging and highlighting the urgent demand for low-cost technology that could reshape future combat strategies.
- Surge in Demand: Defense tech startups report skyrocketing demand since the U.S. first struck Iran, with many customers willing to buy out capacity or request ramped-up production, reflecting a strong appetite for innovative technologies in modern warfare.
- Budgetary Challenges: Despite defense tech accounting for less than 1% of contract dollars in 2025, the Trump administration's plan to raise military budgets to $1.5 trillion by 2027 could provide new opportunities for startups in the sector.
- Production Capacity Dilemma: Many defense tech firms face a dilemma over whether to scale production to meet clear demand signals without stable contracts, as the uncertainty surrounding government contracts complicates their expansion strategies.
See More
AppLovin's Axon Advertising Engine Remains Under the Radar
- Low Advertising Engine Visibility: Although AppLovin's advertising engine Axon has potential in the market, its relatively low recognition among advertisers may hinder its market penetration and customer acquisition capabilities.
- Competitive Pressure: In the highly competitive ad tech sector, Axon's obscurity could pose challenges in attracting new clients and retaining existing ones, thereby impacting the company's overall revenue growth.
- Need for Brand Awareness: To enhance Axon's market position, AppLovin may need to increase its marketing and branding efforts to build advertisers' awareness and trust in its product.
- Strategic Adjustment Necessity: As the advertising market rapidly evolves, AppLovin must assess the market positioning and promotional strategies of its advertising engine to ensure it maintains a competitive edge in the future.
See More
Analysis and Outlook: Shaken Confidence
- Market Volatility: Stocks fluctuated throughout the day, alternating between gains and losses.
- Diplomatic Uncertainty: Investors were reacting to conflicting statements from the Trump administration and Iranian officials regarding potential back-channel diplomacy aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict.
See More
