Sees Q2 Average Total Production at 435-450 MBoe/d
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy SM?
Sees Q2 average total production 435-450 MBoe/d. Sees Q2 oil production 228-235 MBbl/d. Sees Q2 CapEx $815M-$855M.
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Analyst Views on SM
Wall Street analysts forecast SM stock price to rise
8 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 29.440
Low
23.00
Averages
30.00
High
42.00
Current: 29.440
Low
23.00
Averages
30.00
High
42.00
About SM
SM Energy Company is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in Colorado, New Mexico, Texas and Utah. The Company's Permian Basin assets cover approximately 250,000 net acres. The Permian Basin is a large sedimentary basin in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico, United States, noted for its petroleum, natural gas, and potassium deposits. The Company's South Texas assets combine the prolific Eagle Ford natural gas play with the high liquids content Austin Chalk. Located in far South Texas, the Maverick Basin is a Cretaceous-aged foreland basin. Located predominantly in the core, over-pressured oil window of the region, the Uinta Basin adds substantial scale with approximately 63,300 net acres and high oil-content production. The Company's Denver–Julesburg (DJ) Basin assets span approximately 238,000 net acres.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
SM Energy Company Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights
- Merger Synergies: SM Energy achieved approximately $300 million in merger synergies just two months post-merger, raising the target to $375 million by year-end 2026, indicating significant cost savings and operational efficiency gains from the merger.
- Debt Reduction and Buyback Plans: The South Texas asset sale generated about $900 million in net proceeds, fully directed towards debt reduction, and as leverage declines, the company expects to commence share buybacks in Q2, enhancing shareholder returns.
- Production and Financial Outlook: The company raised its full-year production midpoint from 410,000 to 420,000 barrels, with ongoing production growth expected to drive future revenue, while maintaining capital expenditure guidance between $2.65 billion and $2.85 billion.
- Free Cash Flow Performance: Despite facing approximately $180 million in one-time integration and transaction cash costs, SM Energy still delivered $20 million in adjusted free cash flow, demonstrating its strong cash generation capability and financial resilience.
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- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the latest share price to the 200-day moving average can provide valuable insights for investors, helping to assess market trends and potential buy or sell opportunities.
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- Outstanding Stock Performance: SM Energy's stock price has surged 40.9% over the past six months, reaching $29.29 per share, reflecting strong investor confidence in the company's future and potentially attracting more attention from investors.
- Strong Revenue Growth: The company has achieved a remarkable 22.9% compounded annual growth rate over the past five years, surpassing industry averages, indicating strong market resonance of its offerings and enhancing its market position.
- Elite Gross Margin: With an average gross margin of 88.3% over the last five years, SM Energy demonstrates the ability to remain profitable even in low commodity price environments, further solidifying its competitive advantage in the energy sector.
- Excellent Free Cash Flow: SM Energy's free cash flow margin averaged 20% over the past five years, enabling effective reinvestment and capital returns to investors, thereby strengthening the company's competitive edge.
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ETF Component Trading Dynamics Analysis
- Highest Volume Component: On Friday, Venture Global saw over 20.3 million shares traded, with a price drop of approximately 10.2%, indicating market concerns about its outlook, which could undermine investor confidence.
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- Weatherford International's Resilience: Despite a weak overall market, the company's stock rose approximately 2.4%, demonstrating its resilience in the current environment, potentially attracting funds seeking stable investments.
- SM Energy's Continued Decline: As a component of the First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF, SM Energy's stock dropped about 10.4%, indicating insufficient competitiveness in the industry, which may affect its future market share.
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- Charity Golf Tournament: The conference will kick off with a charity golf tournament on the first day, requiring a $150 donation to participate, with all proceeds supporting the IN! Pathways to Inclusive Higher Education program, aimed at creating more college opportunities for students with intellectual disabilities and fostering their academic and career growth.
- Executive Access Opportunities: This conference offers investors direct access to executive management teams from leading global energy companies, including one-on-one meetings and breakout Q&A sessions, helping investors gain deeper insights into companies' operational and financial strategies, thereby enhancing investment decision-making effectiveness.
- Networking Events: Multiple networking events will be held during the conference, including a welcome mixer and Casino Night, aimed at fostering interactions with industry peers and enhancing connections between investors and companies, thereby improving the overall collaborative atmosphere within the industry.
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- Rating Downgrade: Roth Capital downgraded Diamondback Energy, Permian Resources, Matador Resources, SM Energy, Magnolia Oil and Gas, and Talos Energy from buy to neutral, reflecting a cautious outlook on their future performance.
- Price Target Increase: Although price targets for these six stocks were raised, analysts noted that expected gains are limited as current prices are near 52-week highs, with oil prices likely to fall to $70 per barrel in the near term.
- Market Reaction: Following the U.S. and Iran's temporary ceasefire agreement, all six energy stocks saw premarket declines of 6% to 9%, indicating market sensitivity to falling oil prices, with Brent crude futures dropping 15% to around $92.
- Supply Recovery Expectations: Analysts expect oil prices to decline rapidly with the end of the Iran conflict, and most shut-in oilfields are anticipated to resume production within days or weeks, leading to a quick alleviation of market supply shortages.
See More
SM Energy Company Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights
- Merger Synergies: SM Energy achieved approximately $300 million in merger synergies just two months post-merger, raising the target to $375 million by year-end 2026, indicating significant cost savings and operational efficiency gains from the merger.
- Debt Reduction and Buyback Plans: The South Texas asset sale generated about $900 million in net proceeds, fully directed towards debt reduction, and as leverage declines, the company expects to commence share buybacks in Q2, enhancing shareholder returns.
- Production and Financial Outlook: The company raised its full-year production midpoint from 410,000 to 420,000 barrels, with ongoing production growth expected to drive future revenue, while maintaining capital expenditure guidance between $2.65 billion and $2.85 billion.
- Free Cash Flow Performance: Despite facing approximately $180 million in one-time integration and transaction cash costs, SM Energy still delivered $20 million in adjusted free cash flow, demonstrating its strong cash generation capability and financial resilience.
See More
AVUV ETF 52-Week Price Fluctuation Analysis
- Price Range Analysis: The AVUV ETF has a 52-week low of $82.205 and a high of $120.46, with the latest trade at $119.16, indicating stability near its high point, which may attract investor interest in its price movements.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the latest share price to the 200-day moving average can provide valuable insights for investors, helping to assess market trends and potential buy or sell opportunities.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, where investors are buying and selling 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on investor demand, impacting the fund's liquidity and market performance.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding for ETFs helps identify those experiencing significant inflows or outflows, where inflows necessitate purchasing underlying assets, while outflows may lead to selling, thus affecting individual stock performance.
See More
SM Energy Stock Surges 40.9% in Six Months
- Outstanding Stock Performance: SM Energy's stock price has surged 40.9% over the past six months, reaching $29.29 per share, reflecting strong investor confidence in the company's future and potentially attracting more attention from investors.
- Strong Revenue Growth: The company has achieved a remarkable 22.9% compounded annual growth rate over the past five years, surpassing industry averages, indicating strong market resonance of its offerings and enhancing its market position.
- Elite Gross Margin: With an average gross margin of 88.3% over the last five years, SM Energy demonstrates the ability to remain profitable even in low commodity price environments, further solidifying its competitive advantage in the energy sector.
- Excellent Free Cash Flow: SM Energy's free cash flow margin averaged 20% over the past five years, enabling effective reinvestment and capital returns to investors, thereby strengthening the company's competitive edge.
See More
ETF Component Trading Dynamics Analysis
- Highest Volume Component: On Friday, Venture Global saw over 20.3 million shares traded, with a price drop of approximately 10.2%, indicating market concerns about its outlook, which could undermine investor confidence.
- Transocean's Poor Performance: The company's stock fell about 7.3% on a volume exceeding 18.6 million shares, reflecting negative sentiment regarding its operational status, which may lead to future financing challenges.
- Weatherford International's Resilience: Despite a weak overall market, the company's stock rose approximately 2.4%, demonstrating its resilience in the current environment, potentially attracting funds seeking stable investments.
- SM Energy's Continued Decline: As a component of the First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF, SM Energy's stock dropped about 10.4%, indicating insufficient competitiveness in the industry, which may affect its future market share.
See More
Registration Open for 2026 EnerCom Denver Energy Investment Conference
- Conference Registration Open: EnerCom has announced that registration is now open for the 2026 EnerCom Denver Energy Investment Conference, scheduled for August 17-19 at the Westin Denver Downtown, expected to attract over 1,000 industry professionals and investors, providing significant investment opportunities and industry insights.
- Charity Golf Tournament: The conference will kick off with a charity golf tournament on the first day, requiring a $150 donation to participate, with all proceeds supporting the IN! Pathways to Inclusive Higher Education program, aimed at creating more college opportunities for students with intellectual disabilities and fostering their academic and career growth.
- Executive Access Opportunities: This conference offers investors direct access to executive management teams from leading global energy companies, including one-on-one meetings and breakout Q&A sessions, helping investors gain deeper insights into companies' operational and financial strategies, thereby enhancing investment decision-making effectiveness.
- Networking Events: Multiple networking events will be held during the conference, including a welcome mixer and Casino Night, aimed at fostering interactions with industry peers and enhancing connections between investors and companies, thereby improving the overall collaborative atmosphere within the industry.
See More
Energy Stocks Face Limited Upside After Ceasefire
- Rating Downgrade: Roth Capital downgraded Diamondback Energy, Permian Resources, Matador Resources, SM Energy, Magnolia Oil and Gas, and Talos Energy from buy to neutral, reflecting a cautious outlook on their future performance.
- Price Target Increase: Although price targets for these six stocks were raised, analysts noted that expected gains are limited as current prices are near 52-week highs, with oil prices likely to fall to $70 per barrel in the near term.
- Market Reaction: Following the U.S. and Iran's temporary ceasefire agreement, all six energy stocks saw premarket declines of 6% to 9%, indicating market sensitivity to falling oil prices, with Brent crude futures dropping 15% to around $92.
- Supply Recovery Expectations: Analysts expect oil prices to decline rapidly with the end of the Iran conflict, and most shut-in oilfields are anticipated to resume production within days or weeks, leading to a quick alleviation of market supply shortages.
See More
