Should I Buy SM? SM 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy SM Energy Co (SM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

18.870

1 Day change

-1.62%

52 Week Range

41.290

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/26

SM Energy Co is not a strong buy for a beginner, long-term investor at the moment. While hedge funds are significantly increasing their positions, the financial performance shows declining profitability metrics, and technical indicators suggest a lack of immediate upward momentum. Additionally, the stock is expected to decline in the short term based on historical patterns. Without clear positive catalysts or strong trading signals, holding off on investing is the prudent choice.

Technical Analysis

The MACD is positive and expanding, indicating a potential upward trend. RSI is neutral at 58.446, suggesting no overbought or oversold conditions. Moving averages are converging, showing no clear trend direction. Key support is at 17.712, and resistance is at 19.301. The stock is pre-market at 18.79, close to the pivot point of 18.507.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Hedge funds are significantly increasing their positions, with a 293,900% increase in buying over the last quarter.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

The stock is expected to decline in the short term, with a 70% chance of dropping -3.01% in the next day, -6.44% in the next week, and -9.85% in the next month. Financial metrics show declining profitability, including a 35.52% drop in net income YoY and a 35.41% drop in EPS YoY.

Financial Performance

In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 26.10% YoY to $811.59M, but net income dropped by 35.52% YoY to $155.09M. EPS decreased by 35.41% YoY to 1.35, and gross margin declined by 30.21% YoY to 31.69%.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Mizuho recently lowered the price target from $38 to $34 while maintaining an Outperform rating, citing a modestly reduced activity pace. Wolfe Research downgraded Civitas Resources (CIVI) to Peer Perform due to its merger with SM Energy, suggesting potential valuation concerns.

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast SM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SM is 30 USD with a low forecast of 23 USD and a high forecast of 42 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

4 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 19.180

Low

Averages

High

Current: 19.180

Low

Averages

High

Susquehanna

Neutral

downgrade

$21 -> $19

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

New

Reason

Susquehanna

Price Target

$21 -> $19

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

New

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

Susquehanna lowered the firm's price target on SM Energy to $19 from $21 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated targets in the exploration and production group as part of a Q4 preview. The oil market remains oversupplied following the unwinding of OPEC's voluntary production cuts, which will put downward pressure on pricing when paired with soft demand growth globally, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Susquehanna dropped its 2026 West Texas Intermediate price assumption to $60 per barrel from $65. It remains bullish on long-term demand story for natural gas as well as growing power demand from data centers and electrification.

Mizuho

William Janela

Outperform

downgrade

$38 -> $34

2026-01-09

Reason

Mizuho

William Janela

Price Target

$38 -> $34

2026-01-09

downgrade

Outperform

Reason

Mizuho analyst William Janela lowered the firm's price target on SM Energy to $34 from $38 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares ahead of the Q4 report. The firm cites the company's modestly reduced activity pace versus its prior model for the target drop.

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SM Should I Buy

SM Should I Buy

Should You Buy SM Energy Co (SM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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