Rivian and Lucid Electric Vehicle Stocks Plummet
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 day ago
0mins
Should l Buy RIVN?
Source: Fool
- Production Shortfalls: Rivian promised to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2022 but only managed 24,337, resulting in an 80% drop from its IPO price, while Lucid produced just 7,180 of its planned 20,000, leading to a nearly 70% market value loss.
- Market Challenges: Both companies face supply chain constraints, production issues, and soaring costs, with Rivian's gross margin at -276.59% and Lucid's at -9280.51%, indicating severe financial health concerns.
- Future Outlook: Rivian expects its upcoming R2 SUV, priced lower than the R1T and R1S, to attract new customers with a delivery target of 62,000-67,000 vehicles in 2026; Lucid aims for 25,000-27,000 Gravity SUVs, though a recall of over 4,000 units may hinder production.
- Investment Risks: Despite analysts projecting revenue growth of threefold for Rivian and sixfold for Lucid from 2025 to 2028, both companies are likely to remain unprofitable and issue more shares for cash, indicating high investment risks.
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Analyst Views on RIVN
Wall Street analysts forecast RIVN stock price to rise
18 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
7 Hold
3 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 15.900
Low
10.00
Averages
17.78
High
25.00
Current: 15.900
Low
10.00
Averages
17.78
High
25.00
About RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc. is an automotive technology company, which is engaged in developing and manufacturing category-defining electric vehicles (EVs) as well as vertically integrated technologies and services. The Company's R1 platform consists of two vehicles: the R1T, a two-row five-passenger pickup truck, and the R1S, a three-row seven-passenger sport utility vehicle (SUV). In the commercial market, the Company offers a Rivian Commercial Vehicle (RCV) platform. The vehicle on this platform is the Electric Delivery Van (EDV), designed and engineered by Rivian in collaboration with Amazon. The Company also offers FleetOS, its proprietary, end-to-end centralized fleet management subscription platform. It also offers a variety of services, including vehicle repair and maintenance, financing, insurance, joint venture, software subscriptions, and vehicle accessories, among others. Its other services include vehicle electrical architecture and software development services, and more.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Profit and Loss Discrepancy: While Reuters reported an $8 billion profit on $16 billion revenue for 2025, The Information indicated a $5 billion loss on $18 billion revenue, creating uncertainty that could affect investor confidence.
- Valuation Target and Market Impact: Seeking a $1.75 trillion valuation for its IPO, SpaceX could become the largest IPO in history and quickly rank among the top ten public companies globally; however, historical data suggests that large IPO stocks often underperform in the long term.
- Cautious Investor Sentiment: Although SpaceX shares may surge on their first trading day, historical trends indicate that many large IPOs perform poorly in the following year, leading investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach for better buying opportunities.
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- Financial Performance Discrepancies: While SpaceX reported $16 billion in revenue and an $8 billion profit for 2025, conflicting financial data from different sources indicates uncertainty in profitability, which may affect investor confidence.
- Historical Performance Warning: Historical data shows that stocks with large IPO valuations typically perform poorly post-listing, with average returns of -13% over three months and -12% over one year, potentially leading prospective investors to adopt a cautious stance on SpaceX's long-term performance.
- Market Reaction Expectations: Although SpaceX's IPO is highly anticipated and may see a surge in stock price on its debut, the historically low long-term returns of large IPO stocks suggest that investors should remain on the sidelines and look for optimal buying opportunities amid market fluctuations.
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- Equity Investments: The company plans to invest over $2.5 billion in equity stakes in various autonomous vehicle developers over the coming years, enhancing its position in the autonomous driving ecosystem while preventing competitors like Waymo and Tesla from bypassing its platform entirely.
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- Fuel Cost Savings: For instance, a Ford F-150 owner switching to the now-discontinued F-150 Lightning could save approximately $1,900 annually in fuel costs, a significant financial incentive that is likely to attract more consumers to EVs and further boost market demand.
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- Battery Recycling Utilization: Rivian will supply used EV battery packs to Redwood, which will integrate them into its energy system, enhancing battery lifespan and contributing to grid health, thereby bolstering American competitiveness in the clean energy sector.
- R2 SUV Production Preparation: As Rivian advances its energy storage initiatives, it is gearing up to start volume production of its smaller, more affordable R2 midsize SUV at the Normal plant, with an expected starting price of around $45,000 and deliveries slated for June 2026, aiming to compete with Tesla's Model Y.
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See More
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- Energy Storage Collaboration: Rivian and Redwood Materials are collaborating to provide at least 10 megawatt hours of reliable power at Rivian's Normal, Illinois facility by reusing EV battery packs, significantly enhancing energy flexibility and reliability at the plant.
- Technology Integration: Rivian will supply used battery packs, which Redwood will integrate into an energy system supported by Redwood's pack manager technology, allowing stored energy to be utilized as needed, thereby improving production efficiency.
- Cost Benefits: The system is rapidly scalable and leverages safe, proven EV batteries, with Rivian stating that this initiative will significantly reduce costs and decrease reliance on imported energy storage while deferring billions in infrastructure upgrades.
- Market Performance: Rivian shares have risen for the fifth consecutive day, and the company reaffirmed its delivery guidance of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles for 2026, indicating strong market confidence and growth potential.
See More
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- IPO Filing: SpaceX submitted its IPO paperwork to the SEC in early April, marking a significant step towards public market entry, although financial statements remain confidential.
- Profit and Loss Discrepancy: While Reuters reported an $8 billion profit on $16 billion revenue for 2025, The Information indicated a $5 billion loss on $18 billion revenue, creating uncertainty that could affect investor confidence.
- Valuation Target and Market Impact: Seeking a $1.75 trillion valuation for its IPO, SpaceX could become the largest IPO in history and quickly rank among the top ten public companies globally; however, historical data suggests that large IPO stocks often underperform in the long term.
- Cautious Investor Sentiment: Although SpaceX shares may surge on their first trading day, historical trends indicate that many large IPOs perform poorly in the following year, leading investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach for better buying opportunities.
See More
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- Financial Performance Discrepancies: While SpaceX reported $16 billion in revenue and an $8 billion profit for 2025, conflicting financial data from different sources indicates uncertainty in profitability, which may affect investor confidence.
- Historical Performance Warning: Historical data shows that stocks with large IPO valuations typically perform poorly post-listing, with average returns of -13% over three months and -12% over one year, potentially leading prospective investors to adopt a cautious stance on SpaceX's long-term performance.
- Market Reaction Expectations: Although SpaceX's IPO is highly anticipated and may see a surge in stock price on its debut, the historically low long-term returns of large IPO stocks suggest that investors should remain on the sidelines and look for optimal buying opportunities amid market fluctuations.
See More
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- Strategic Shift: Uber has announced a $10 billion investment in the robotaxi sector, including over $7.5 billion for fleet purchases, aiming to transition from its traditional gig economy model to better position itself against future market disruptions through partnerships with companies like Waymo and Nvidia.
- Equity Investments: The company plans to invest over $2.5 billion in equity stakes in various autonomous vehicle developers over the coming years, enhancing its position in the autonomous driving ecosystem while preventing competitors like Waymo and Tesla from bypassing its platform entirely.
- Market Expansion: Through its partnership with Nvidia, Uber aims to deploy Nvidia software-driven robotaxis across 28 cities by 2028, a move that not only boosts its competitive edge but also lays the groundwork for future revenue growth in the autonomous vehicle market.
- Increased Commitment: Uber has raised its investment in Lucid to $500 million and increased its commitment to purchase Lucid vehicles for its robotaxi service to 35,000 units, up from the previously announced 20,000 units, demonstrating its strategic focus on the electric vehicle market and future mobility solutions.
See More
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- Increased EV Appeal: The volatility in oil prices is prompting more Americans to consider electric vehicles (EVs), as electricity prices are more stable and cheaper, making EVs an ideal choice to break the vicious cycle of rising fuel costs, which is expected to drive long-term growth in the EV market.
- Fuel Cost Savings: For instance, a Ford F-150 owner switching to the now-discontinued F-150 Lightning could save approximately $1,900 annually in fuel costs, a significant financial incentive that is likely to attract more consumers to EVs and further boost market demand.
- Challenges for Young EV Makers: While emerging EV manufacturers like Rivian and Lucid are well-positioned in the global EV surge, they face challenges such as hefty cash burn and significant losses, with Lucid delivering only 15,841 vehicles in 2022, highlighting the long road ahead for scaling their operations.
- Production Bottleneck Issues: Lucid encountered a 29-day production disruption for its Gravity SUV in Q1 2026 due to supplier quality issues, underscoring the challenges young EV manufacturers face in production, necessitating investor patience to navigate these risks.
See More
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- New Partnership: Rivian has partnered with Redwood Materials, founded by Tesla co-founder JB Straubel, to deploy a battery energy storage system at its Normal, Illinois factory, initially providing 10 megawatt-hours of dispatchable energy to reduce costs and grid load during peak demand periods.
- Battery Recycling Utilization: Rivian will supply used EV battery packs to Redwood, which will integrate them into its energy system, enhancing battery lifespan and contributing to grid health, thereby bolstering American competitiveness in the clean energy sector.
- R2 SUV Production Preparation: As Rivian advances its energy storage initiatives, it is gearing up to start volume production of its smaller, more affordable R2 midsize SUV at the Normal plant, with an expected starting price of around $45,000 and deliveries slated for June 2026, aiming to compete with Tesla's Model Y.
- Market Reaction: Despite RIVN shares gaining 33% over the past 12 months, retail sentiment on Stocktwits remains bearish, indicating cautious market outlook regarding the company's future performance.
See More
Rivian Partners with Redwood for Energy Storage Solutions
- Energy Storage Collaboration: Rivian and Redwood Materials are collaborating to provide at least 10 megawatt hours of reliable power at Rivian's Normal, Illinois facility by reusing EV battery packs, significantly enhancing energy flexibility and reliability at the plant.
- Technology Integration: Rivian will supply used battery packs, which Redwood will integrate into an energy system supported by Redwood's pack manager technology, allowing stored energy to be utilized as needed, thereby improving production efficiency.
- Cost Benefits: The system is rapidly scalable and leverages safe, proven EV batteries, with Rivian stating that this initiative will significantly reduce costs and decrease reliance on imported energy storage while deferring billions in infrastructure upgrades.
- Market Performance: Rivian shares have risen for the fifth consecutive day, and the company reaffirmed its delivery guidance of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles for 2026, indicating strong market confidence and growth potential.
See More
