Rigetti Computing Lags in Accuracy, Misses DARPA Program
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 25 2026
0mins
Should l Buy RGTI?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Accuracy Issues: Rigetti's two-qubit gate fidelity stands at 99.5%, significantly trailing IonQ's 99.99%, which undermines its competitive edge in quantum computing, especially as it falls below the 99.9% threshold recommended by data scientists.
- Missed Government Program: The company failed to advance to Stage B of the DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, indicating a lack of technological readiness that could hinder future government contract opportunities.
- System Launch Delay: Rigetti has postponed the release of its 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system to improve its error rate, a delay that may negatively impact its market competitiveness and customer confidence.
- Analyst Rating Changes: Despite challenges, Rossenblatt Securities initiated coverage with a “buy” rating, citing its “modular approach to qubit scaling,” yet overall market sentiment remains cautious, reflecting investor concerns about the company's future.
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Analyst Views on RGTI
Wall Street analysts forecast RGTI stock price to rise
10 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 13.840
Low
30.00
Averages
39.75
High
51.00
Current: 13.840
Low
30.00
Averages
39.75
High
51.00
About RGTI
Rigetti Computing, Inc. is a full-stack quantum computing company. The Company operates quantum computers over the cloud and serves global enterprise, government, and research clients through its Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services platform. The Company’s quantum-classical infrastructure provides high-performance integration with public and private clouds for practical quantum computing. It has developed a multi-chip quantum processor for scalable quantum computing systems. Through the Company’s Quantum Computing as a Service (QCaaS) platform, its machines can be integrated into any public, private or hybrid cloud. It is also engaged in the sale of quantum processing units (QPUs) and custom computing components, and development contracts and other services. Its QPUs contain fabricated silicon-based chips featuring superconducting qubits. The Company designs and manufactures its chips in-house at Fab-1, an integrated quantum device manufacturing facility.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Rigetti Computing Shares Surge: The Excitement Surrounding Its Most Advanced Quantum System Captivates Wall Street.
- Announcement of Quantum Computer: Rigetti Computing has unveiled the general availability of its most powerful quantum computer to date.
- Resolution of Uncertainty: This announcement concludes months of uncertainty surrounding the company's developments in quantum computing technology.
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How Rigetti's Latest Cepheus System Paves the Way for Increased Stock Value
- Announcement of Quantum Computer: Rigetti Computing has announced the general availability of its most powerful quantum computer to date.
- Market Reaction: Following the announcement, the company's stock experienced a significant increase.
- Resolution of Uncertainty: This launch concludes months of uncertainty surrounding the company's developments.
- Significance in Quantum Computing: The new quantum computer represents a notable advancement in the field of quantum technology.
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Mizuho Lowers Price Targets on Quantum Computing Stocks
- Price Target Cuts: Mizuho has reduced the price targets for D-Wave Quantum from $40 to $31, Rigetti Computing from $43 to $33, and IonQ from $80 to $61, yet analysts maintain an Outperform rating on all three, reflecting confidence in the long-term potential of quantum computing.
- Market Share Expectations: Analysts project that IonQ will capture a 16% market share in the quantum computing market by 2030, with fiscal 2026/2027 revenues expected to grow by 81% and 42% year-over-year, thereby reinforcing IonQ's leadership in the sector.
- Rigetti's Technological Advancements: Rigetti is anticipated to hold a 10% market share by 2030, with projected revenue growth of approximately 300% and 100% for fiscal 2026/2027, while maintaining gross margins of about 39% and 49%, indicating ongoing improvements in its superconducting technology.
- D-Wave's Market Potential: D-Wave is expected to achieve nearly a 10% market share by 2030, with revenue and EPS growth of 82% and 93% for fiscal 2026/2027, and gross margins exceeding 75%, suggesting that its dual-platform strategy may provide a long-term competitive edge.
See More
RGTI Options Contract Analysis and Investment Opportunities
- Put Option Appeal: The current bid for the $8.00 put option is 20 cents, and if an investor sells-to-open this contract, they commit to buying the stock at $8.00, effectively lowering their cost basis to $7.80, which represents a 44% discount from the current price of $14.28, making it attractive for those interested in RGTI.
- Yield Potential Analysis: Should the put option expire worthless, it would yield a 2.50% return on the cash commitment, or an annualized 12.50%, highlighting the strategy's potential profitability, with Stock Options Channel tracking these odds over time.
- Call Option Returns: The $26.00 call option has a current bid of 25 cents, and if an investor buys RGTI shares at $14.28 and sells this call, they could achieve an 83.82% total return if the stock is called away at expiration, showcasing the high return potential of this strategy.
- Risk-Reward Trade-off: Given that the $26.00 call option represents an 82% premium to the current stock price, with a 70% chance of expiring worthless, investors could retain both their shares and the premium collected, further enhancing their investment returns.
See More
Rigetti Computing's Quantum Breakthrough and Challenges
- Quantum Breakthrough: Rigetti Computing announced it achieved up to 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity, indicating a one in 1,000 error chance during calculations, which is significant but still insufficient for commercial viability due to ongoing accuracy issues in quantum computing.
- Accuracy Challenges: As the number of qubits increases, Rigetti's accuracy declines rapidly, with its largest 108-qubit system only achieving 99% two-qubit gate accuracy, highlighting a critical challenge in balancing computational power with reliability.
- Competitive Pressure: Compared to IonQ, which has reached a two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.99% and plans to launch a 256-qubit system by 2026, Rigetti faces immense competitive pressure that may undermine investor confidence in its future prospects.
- Poor Investment Outlook: Despite Rigetti's breakthroughs in accuracy, it remains significantly behind its peers, leading analysts to suggest that its investment potential is limited, with recommendations to consider more promising quantum computing companies like IonQ.
See More
Rigetti's Quantum Computing Systems Achieve Accuracy Breakthrough
- Accuracy Breakthrough: Rigetti recently announced a significant achievement with a two-qubit gate fidelity of up to 99.9%, indicating a one in 1,000 chance of error during calculations, yet this level of accuracy remains insufficient for commercial viability.
- Competitive Pressure: Despite Rigetti's advancements, its largest 108-qubit system only achieves 99% fidelity, and as the number of qubits increases, accuracy declines, placing Rigetti at a disadvantage compared to competitors like IonQ, which boasts a 99.99% fidelity.
- Market Outlook: The primary challenge for Rigetti in the rapidly evolving quantum computing sector is enhancing system accuracy to meet commercial demands, and its current technological limitations hinder its competitive position, prompting investors to carefully assess its investment potential.
- Investment Recommendation: Analysts generally advise against investing in Rigetti, as it is not considered the best quantum computing stock available, with competitors like IonQ demonstrating superior technology and market performance, suggesting investors explore more promising alternatives.
See More
Rigetti Computing Shares Surge: The Excitement Surrounding Its Most Advanced Quantum System Captivates Wall Street.
- Announcement of Quantum Computer: Rigetti Computing has unveiled the general availability of its most powerful quantum computer to date.
- Resolution of Uncertainty: This announcement concludes months of uncertainty surrounding the company's developments in quantum computing technology.
See More
How Rigetti's Latest Cepheus System Paves the Way for Increased Stock Value
- Announcement of Quantum Computer: Rigetti Computing has announced the general availability of its most powerful quantum computer to date.
- Market Reaction: Following the announcement, the company's stock experienced a significant increase.
- Resolution of Uncertainty: This launch concludes months of uncertainty surrounding the company's developments.
- Significance in Quantum Computing: The new quantum computer represents a notable advancement in the field of quantum technology.
See More
Mizuho Lowers Price Targets on Quantum Computing Stocks
- Price Target Cuts: Mizuho has reduced the price targets for D-Wave Quantum from $40 to $31, Rigetti Computing from $43 to $33, and IonQ from $80 to $61, yet analysts maintain an Outperform rating on all three, reflecting confidence in the long-term potential of quantum computing.
- Market Share Expectations: Analysts project that IonQ will capture a 16% market share in the quantum computing market by 2030, with fiscal 2026/2027 revenues expected to grow by 81% and 42% year-over-year, thereby reinforcing IonQ's leadership in the sector.
- Rigetti's Technological Advancements: Rigetti is anticipated to hold a 10% market share by 2030, with projected revenue growth of approximately 300% and 100% for fiscal 2026/2027, while maintaining gross margins of about 39% and 49%, indicating ongoing improvements in its superconducting technology.
- D-Wave's Market Potential: D-Wave is expected to achieve nearly a 10% market share by 2030, with revenue and EPS growth of 82% and 93% for fiscal 2026/2027, and gross margins exceeding 75%, suggesting that its dual-platform strategy may provide a long-term competitive edge.
See More
RGTI Options Contract Analysis and Investment Opportunities
- Put Option Appeal: The current bid for the $8.00 put option is 20 cents, and if an investor sells-to-open this contract, they commit to buying the stock at $8.00, effectively lowering their cost basis to $7.80, which represents a 44% discount from the current price of $14.28, making it attractive for those interested in RGTI.
- Yield Potential Analysis: Should the put option expire worthless, it would yield a 2.50% return on the cash commitment, or an annualized 12.50%, highlighting the strategy's potential profitability, with Stock Options Channel tracking these odds over time.
- Call Option Returns: The $26.00 call option has a current bid of 25 cents, and if an investor buys RGTI shares at $14.28 and sells this call, they could achieve an 83.82% total return if the stock is called away at expiration, showcasing the high return potential of this strategy.
- Risk-Reward Trade-off: Given that the $26.00 call option represents an 82% premium to the current stock price, with a 70% chance of expiring worthless, investors could retain both their shares and the premium collected, further enhancing their investment returns.
See More
Rigetti Computing's Quantum Breakthrough and Challenges
- Quantum Breakthrough: Rigetti Computing announced it achieved up to 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity, indicating a one in 1,000 error chance during calculations, which is significant but still insufficient for commercial viability due to ongoing accuracy issues in quantum computing.
- Accuracy Challenges: As the number of qubits increases, Rigetti's accuracy declines rapidly, with its largest 108-qubit system only achieving 99% two-qubit gate accuracy, highlighting a critical challenge in balancing computational power with reliability.
- Competitive Pressure: Compared to IonQ, which has reached a two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.99% and plans to launch a 256-qubit system by 2026, Rigetti faces immense competitive pressure that may undermine investor confidence in its future prospects.
- Poor Investment Outlook: Despite Rigetti's breakthroughs in accuracy, it remains significantly behind its peers, leading analysts to suggest that its investment potential is limited, with recommendations to consider more promising quantum computing companies like IonQ.
See More
Rigetti's Quantum Computing Systems Achieve Accuracy Breakthrough
- Accuracy Breakthrough: Rigetti recently announced a significant achievement with a two-qubit gate fidelity of up to 99.9%, indicating a one in 1,000 chance of error during calculations, yet this level of accuracy remains insufficient for commercial viability.
- Competitive Pressure: Despite Rigetti's advancements, its largest 108-qubit system only achieves 99% fidelity, and as the number of qubits increases, accuracy declines, placing Rigetti at a disadvantage compared to competitors like IonQ, which boasts a 99.99% fidelity.
- Market Outlook: The primary challenge for Rigetti in the rapidly evolving quantum computing sector is enhancing system accuracy to meet commercial demands, and its current technological limitations hinder its competitive position, prompting investors to carefully assess its investment potential.
- Investment Recommendation: Analysts generally advise against investing in Rigetti, as it is not considered the best quantum computing stock available, with competitors like IonQ demonstrating superior technology and market performance, suggesting investors explore more promising alternatives.
See More
