Purchase Ionq at $20 and Achieve 16.8% Returns Through Options
Put Selling and Upside Potential: Selling a put option does not provide the same upside potential as owning shares, as the seller only acquires shares if the contract is exercised, which occurs under specific market conditions.
Market Conditions for Profitability: The put seller's profit is limited to the premium collected unless Ionq Inc's shares drop significantly, making the exercise of the put option beneficial.
Volatility and Risk Assessment: Ionq Inc's historical volatility is calculated at 125%, which can be used alongside fundamental analysis to evaluate whether selling a January 2027 put at a $20 strike price offers adequate reward for the associated risks.
Current Market Activity: Recent trading data shows an equal volume of put and call options among S&P 500 components, indicating a higher than normal interest in put options compared to historical averages.
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Analyst Views on IONQ
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- Dramatic Loss Increase: IonQ's losses surged tenfold year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, escalating from $129 million to nearly $1.3 billion, primarily due to tripled general and administrative costs and more than doubled R&D expenses, highlighting the high-cost pressures in the quantum computing sector.
- Weak Sales Growth: Although IonQ's sales rose by 117% to $68.1 million in the first nine months of 2025, most of this revenue came from five companies acquired last year rather than organic growth, indicating weakness in its core business operations.
- Shareholder Dilution Risk: IonQ financed its acquisitions through issuing new shares, leading to shareholder dilution, which, combined with expanding losses and sales growth primarily reliant on acquisitions, exacerbates financial instability and undermines investor confidence.
- Deteriorating Market Conditions: As investors rotate towards safer assets, IonQ faces increased market pressure, with its price-to-sales ratio of 106 significantly exceeding the tech sector average of 8, suggesting that its stock may be overvalued and could experience further price declines.
- Quantum Computing Potential: IonQ is leading in quantum computing accuracy by utilizing a trapped-ion approach that employs actual atoms instead of artificial qubits, enhancing system stability and reliability.
- High Fidelity Milestone: The acquisition of Oxford Ionics allowed IonQ to integrate microwave electronics into its chips, eliminating the need for large lasers and achieving a remarkable 99.99% two-gate fidelity, significantly improving the practicality of quantum computing.
- Error Correction Advances: IonQ's progress in quantum error correction enables the system to maintain correct information even when some qubits fail, enhancing its competitive edge in the quantum computing market.
- Economic Viability Advantage: By shrinking machine size and integrating microwave electronics, IonQ's systems become more economically viable, and if it can achieve quantum advantage first, its stock could see substantial upside, attracting long-term investor interest.
- Commercialization Outlook: Microsoft’s VP of Quantum, Zulfi Alam, stated that by 2029, quantum computers will possess commercial value, capable of performing complex calculations that classical computers cannot, marking a pivotal shift from lab research to real-world applications.
- Energy Efficiency Revolution: UBS analysts noted that quantum computers could solve problems in 200 seconds that would take conventional supercomputers 10,000 years, potentially reducing energy consumption in data centers and driving the industry towards more efficient computing models.
- Infrastructure Investment Needs: As quantum computing advances, significant infrastructure investments will be required in data centers to accommodate the unique demands of quantum machines, with experts predicting a surge in M&A activity over the next decade to bolster quantum technology and talent.
- Security Challenges: While quantum computing presents opportunities, it also raises data security concerns, with UBS warning that powerful quantum computers could undermine existing encryption methods, necessitating immediate investments in quantum-safe encryption technologies to address future security threats.
- Quantum Breakthrough: Microsoft’s VP of Quantum, Zulfi Alam, stated that by 2029, quantum computers will have commercial value, capable of solving problems in 200 seconds that would take classical supercomputers 10,000 years, indicating a significant shift towards commercial applications of quantum computing.
- Reduced Energy Demand: Quantum computers are expected to consume only a fraction of the energy used by traditional data centers, which will significantly lower energy requirements and reduce workloads needed for AI training, thus driving the industry towards more efficient computing models.
- Accelerated Industry Investment: Global investments in quantum technology are rapidly increasing, with China nearing $18 billion in public investment, followed closely by the EU, highlighting the importance placed on the future potential of quantum computing and accelerating the development of related technologies.
- Security Risks and Challenges: While quantum computing presents opportunities, it also poses data security risks, as powerful quantum computers could undermine existing encryption methods, necessitating companies to invest in new quantum-safe encryption technologies in the coming years to ensure data security.
- SoundHound AI Growth Potential: SoundHound AI achieved a 68% revenue growth in Q3 2025, despite its stock being down about 70% from its all-time high, currently valued at $310 million with a price-to-sales ratio of 20, indicating an attractive buying opportunity.
- Nebius Future Outlook: Nebius is projected to increase its annual recurring revenue from $1.25 billion to between $7 billion and $9 billion by the end of 2026, driven by strong market demand, with a current market cap of $2.5 billion showcasing its immense growth potential in the data center sector.
- IonQ Quantum Computing Leadership: IonQ, as the global leader in quantum computing, faces fierce competition but holds a market cap of $1.2 billion with a current stock price of $33.39, underscoring its significance and potential returns in future technologies.
- Investment Strategy Recommendation: Allocating 5% to 10% of your portfolio to these high-risk stocks, while risky, could significantly accelerate wealth accumulation if successful, especially if the portfolio outperforms the market by a few percentage points annually.
- Stellar Returns: As of October 2025, trailing 12-month returns for IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum soared between 670% and 6,217%, reflecting strong investor confidence in quantum computing's potential, yet caution is warranted due to underlying risks.
- Massive Market Potential: Analysts at Boston Consulting Group estimate that quantum computing could generate $450 billion to $850 billion in global economic value by 2040, while The Quantum Insider projects a $1 trillion opportunity by 2035, suggesting significant upside for early investors.
- Insider Selling Signals Caution: Despite the optimistic outlook, insiders at IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave have collectively sold approximately $615 million more in shares than they purchased over the past year, indicating potential concerns about stock valuations that investors should heed.
- Slow Commercialization: While the applications of quantum computing are promising, these companies face risks of overvaluation and market bubbles, with technology still in its infancy, likely requiring years to achieve profitability.










