Progressive announces Q3 EPS of $4.45, below consensus estimate of $5.05
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 15 2025
0mins
Should l Buy PGR?
- Net Premiums Written: The company reported net premiums written of $21.4 billion, an increase from $19.5 billion the previous year.
- Net Premiums Earned: Net premiums earned rose to $20.8 billion, up from $18.3 billion last year.
- Combined Ratio: The combined ratio was reported at 89.5%, slightly higher than the 89% from the previous year.
- Year-over-Year Growth: Overall, the company experienced growth in both net premiums written and earned compared to the previous year.
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Analyst Views on PGR
Wall Street analysts forecast PGR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PGR is 257.11 USD with a low forecast of 214.00 USD and a high forecast of 328.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 207.560
Low
214.00
Averages
257.11
High
328.00
Current: 207.560
Low
214.00
Averages
257.11
High
328.00
About PGR
The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company, which has insurance and non-insurance subsidiaries and affiliates. The Company’s segments include Personal Lines, Commercial Lines and Other indemnity. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products. Its special lines of products include recreational vehicles, such as motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft. Its Personal Lines products are sold through both the agency and direct channels. The Commercial Lines segment writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance, business-related general liability and commercial property insurance predominately for small businesses, and workers’ compensation insurance primarily for the transportation industry. Its reinsurance activity includes both transactions which are regulated and those that are non-regulated. It offers shopping tools and services, such as Name Your Price, Snapshot, and HomeQuote Explorer.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Chevron's Strong Performance: Chevron (CVX) excels in the oil and gas sector, with a low break-even cost of $30 per barrel and the acquisition of the Stabroek Block in Guyana, positioning it for robust future free cash flow generation.
- Progressive's Profitability: Despite a 30% decline in Progressive (PGR) stock over the past year, its underwriting profitability remains strong, with net premiums of $83 billion last year and a combined ratio of 87.4%, showcasing its competitive edge.
- Dividend Return Appeal: Progressive paid a special dividend of $13.50 per share in December, yielding approximately 6.5% based on its recent closing price, providing an attractive return opportunity for long-term investors.
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Progressive Receives Overweight Rating with Price Target of $248.23
- Rating Upgrade: Progressive (PGR) has received an overweight rating, reflecting analysts' optimistic expectations for its future performance, which is likely to attract more investor attention.
- Price Target Set: The average price target is set at $248.23, indicating the potential upside for the company's stock, which may drive the price closer to this target.
- Market Reaction: The upgrade and price target increase could enhance investor confidence, thereby improving the stock's liquidity and market performance, facilitating capital inflow.
- Long-term Outlook: With the recovery of the insurance industry and increasing market demand, Progressive's overweight rating and price target suggest strong growth potential in a competitive market.
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New Target Price: The target price has been adjusted from $234 to $226.
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- Value Increase: Following the acquisition, McDonald Capital's position in FactSet rose to $53.90 million, an increase of $25.58 million from the previous quarter, reflecting both share additions and price appreciation.
- Portfolio Diversification: FactSet now represents 3.31% of McDonald Capital's portfolio, alongside other major holdings like Progressive and Regeneron, aligning with a long-term compounding investment strategy.
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- Sales Growth: The company achieved quarterly sales of $21.093 billion, exceeding the analyst estimate of $20.101 billion, reflecting solid business expansion and a growing customer base, enhancing future revenue potential.
- Minor Stock Movement: Following the earnings announcement, Progressive's shares rose 0.1% to $212.76 in pre-market trading, indicating a positive market reaction to the financial results, although the overall increase was modest.
- Analyst Price Target Adjustments: Analysts from BMO Capital and Wells Fargo lowered their price targets to $232 and $220 respectively while maintaining Market Perform and Equal-Weight ratings, reflecting a cautious outlook on future market conditions.
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- Market Valuation Analysis: The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio indicates that the current market is at a historical high, prompting caution among investors, yet there are still value stocks to consider, especially in a high-valuation environment.
- Chevron's Strong Performance: Chevron (CVX) excels in the oil and gas sector, with a low break-even cost of $30 per barrel and the acquisition of the Stabroek Block in Guyana, positioning it for robust future free cash flow generation.
- Progressive's Profitability: Despite a 30% decline in Progressive (PGR) stock over the past year, its underwriting profitability remains strong, with net premiums of $83 billion last year and a combined ratio of 87.4%, showcasing its competitive edge.
- Dividend Return Appeal: Progressive paid a special dividend of $13.50 per share in December, yielding approximately 6.5% based on its recent closing price, providing an attractive return opportunity for long-term investors.
See More
Insurance Stocks Thrive Amid Market Volatility; Stability Could Be the Key.
- Insurance Stocks Performance: Insurance stocks are showing strong performance, achieving steady gains amidst market volatility.
- Sector Resilience: This group within the financial sector is demonstrating its strength and resilience compared to the broader market.
See More
Progressive Receives Overweight Rating with Price Target of $248.23
- Rating Upgrade: Progressive (PGR) has received an overweight rating, reflecting analysts' optimistic expectations for its future performance, which is likely to attract more investor attention.
- Price Target Set: The average price target is set at $248.23, indicating the potential upside for the company's stock, which may drive the price closer to this target.
- Market Reaction: The upgrade and price target increase could enhance investor confidence, thereby improving the stock's liquidity and market performance, facilitating capital inflow.
- Long-term Outlook: With the recovery of the insurance industry and increasing market demand, Progressive's overweight rating and price target suggest strong growth potential in a competitive market.
See More
UBS Lowers Target Price for Progressive Corp to $226 from $234
Company Update: Progressive Corp has announced a reduction in its target price for UBS shares.
New Target Price: The target price has been adjusted from $234 to $226.
See More
McDonald Capital Increases Stake in FactSet Research Systems
- Stake Acquisition: McDonald Capital Investors disclosed a purchase of 86,891 shares of FactSet Research Systems during Q4, valued at approximately $24.39 million, indicating strong confidence in the company.
- Value Increase: Following the acquisition, McDonald Capital's position in FactSet rose to $53.90 million, an increase of $25.58 million from the previous quarter, reflecting both share additions and price appreciation.
- Portfolio Diversification: FactSet now represents 3.31% of McDonald Capital's portfolio, alongside other major holdings like Progressive and Regeneron, aligning with a long-term compounding investment strategy.
- Business Resilience: Despite a 45% decline in FactSet's stock price over the past year, the company continues to report organic revenue growth and strong free cash flow, underscoring the durability and sustainability of its business model.
See More
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- Strong Earnings: Progressive reported Q4 earnings of $4.67 per share, surpassing the analyst consensus of $4.41, indicating robust profitability and reinforcing its market position in the insurance sector.
- Sales Growth: The company achieved quarterly sales of $21.093 billion, exceeding the analyst estimate of $20.101 billion, reflecting solid business expansion and a growing customer base, enhancing future revenue potential.
- Minor Stock Movement: Following the earnings announcement, Progressive's shares rose 0.1% to $212.76 in pre-market trading, indicating a positive market reaction to the financial results, although the overall increase was modest.
- Analyst Price Target Adjustments: Analysts from BMO Capital and Wells Fargo lowered their price targets to $232 and $220 respectively while maintaining Market Perform and Equal-Weight ratings, reflecting a cautious outlook on future market conditions.
See More
