Nvidia Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations, Q1 Revenue Guidance at $78B
Catch up on the top artificial intelligence news and commentary by Wall Street analysts on publicly traded companies in the space with this daily recap compiled by The Fly.NVIDIA EARNINGS:Nvidiareported quarterly results last night. Both Q4 adjusted EPS and revenue came in above consensus estimates, with the chipmaker guiding Q1 revenue to $78B, plus or minus 2%, versus expectations of $72.03B. "Computing demand is growing exponentially - the agentic AI inflection point has arrived. Grace Blackwell with NVLink is the king of inference today - delivering an order-of-magnitude lower cost per token - and Vera Rubin will extend that leadership even further. Enterprise adoption of agents is skyrocketing. Our customers are racing to invest in AI compute - the factories powering the AI industrial revolution and their future growth," Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvidia, said.POWER-COST PLEDGE:President Donald Trump is convening technology executives from companies including Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, OpenAI, and xAI, to sign pledges committing their companies to foot the electricity bill for energy-hungry data centers, Bloomberg's Jennifer A Dlouhy and Hadriana Lowenkron. The promises would not be binding and would lack the force of law, but administration officials believe they could bring accountability and offer assurance to consumers, according to the report, which adds that the initiative is part of Trump's push to address mounting electricity prices before the November midterm elections, with data centers encountering a growing public backlash over their use of water, land, and backup power.USED BY HACKER:A hacker exploited Anthropic PBC's artificial intelligence chatbot to carry out attacks against Mexican government agencies, resulting in the theft of sensitive tax and voter information, Bloomberg's Andrew Martin and Carolina Millan. The hacker used the chatbot to find vulnerabilities in government networks, write computer scripts to exploit them, and determine ways to automate data theft, with the chatbot eventually complying with the attacker's requests, according to the report, which adds that the attack resulted in the theft of 150 gigabytes of Mexican government data, including documents related to taxpayer records, voter records, government employee credentials, and civil registry files.AI TO MODERATE PLATFORMS:Meta's use of AI to moderate its social media platforms has generated large volumes of useless reports on cases of child sexual abuse, which are hindering investigations at the U.S. Internet Crimes Against Children, ICAC, taskforce, Katie McQue of The Guardian. One ICAC officer said, "Meta is providing thousands of tips each month. It's pretty overwhelming because we're getting so many reports, but the quality of the reports is really lacking in terms of our ability to take serious action."NEW AI-POWERED UPDATES:Google is introducing new AI-powered features in Google Translate "designed to help you nail the tone of any conversation - from informal hangouts to professional meetings - when it matters most," says the company in a blog post. Thanks to Gemini's rich multilingual capabilities, Translate now offers helpful alternatives, which are especially useful for translating idioms and more colloquial phrases. To explore the nuances behind each option, uses should tap "understand" for a helpful overview, or "ask" to follow up with questions about your specific scenario - like ways of saying something in a particular country or dialect. They can try out this new experience today in the U.S. and India on the Translate app - Android and iOS - and coming soon to the web.AI GLASSES:Warby Parkerannounced on its Q4 earnings conference call that the company plans to introduce its first AI glasses in partnership with Googleand Samsung, which it expects will unlock significant new TAM and enable the company to "take advantage of the biggest technology shift in our lifetime." Warby Parker said, "These devices will bring the world's most advanced AI to glasses designed for all-day wear. Over the last 16 years, we have reimagined how people shop for eyewear, bringing together great design, exceptional value, and an unparalleled customer experience underpinned by technology, innovation, and customer obsession. Over time, we've seen how this powerful combination has drawn consumers to our brand and helped us capture market share."
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- Impressive Earnings: Nvidia's fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter revenue surged 73% year-over-year, exceeding Wall Street expectations and demonstrating robust market demand, although the stock fell post-report, reflecting concerns over excessive AI infrastructure spending.
- Intensifying Competition: With competitors like Amazon and Alphabet launching more cost-effective AI chips, Nvidia faces increasing competition, particularly as Amazon's Tranium2 chips are fully subscribed at 1.4 million units, indicating market interest in alternatives.
- Market Concerns: Investors are worried about Nvidia's main clients overspending on AI infrastructure, which could lead to slowing sales and impact the company's long-term growth potential, despite strong performance in the short term.
- Strategic Positioning: Nvidia is launching processors based on its new Vera Rubin architecture, further solidifying its market dominance by vertically integrating its product ecosystem and establishing high barriers to entry against rival challenges.
- Stock Pullback: Nvidia's stock has dipped about 1% at the start of 2026, trading near $185 and 11% below its all-time highs; however, the company's business continues to grow at record levels, indicating strong underlying fundamentals.
- Earnings Growth: In fiscal 2026, Nvidia reported earnings per share (EPS) of $4.90, a 67% year-over-year increase, with analysts forecasting EPS to rise to $8.25 in fiscal 2027 and $10.74 in fiscal 2028, reflecting a potential 120% growth in earnings power over two years.
- Revenue Performance: Nvidia generated $68.1 billion in revenue during Q4, marking a 73% year-over-year increase, and analysts predict the company will achieve 70% revenue growth in the coming year, further solidifying its market leadership.
- Market Opportunities: Despite challenges such as trade tensions with China and increased competition, Nvidia is well-positioned to capture demand in multi-trillion-dollar markets through AI infrastructure investments and emerging applications like autonomous systems and physical AI, showcasing a favorable risk-reward profile.
- Significant Investment: Nvidia's announcement of a $2 billion investment in AI cloud infrastructure company Nebius, representing about 7% of its $28.3 billion market cap, not only elevates Nebius's market visibility but also has the potential to attract more retail investors.
- Successful Business Transformation: Formerly known as Yandex, Nebius has successfully pivoted to providing cloud infrastructure services after sanctions, with plans to increase its total capacity from 1 GW to 5 GW by 2030, indicating strong growth potential in the AI market.
- Rapid Revenue Growth: Nebius's revenue skyrocketed by 462% in 2024 and surged another 351% to $530 million in 2025, with projections indicating nearly 18-fold revenue growth to $9.4 billion by 2027, reflecting robust market demand for its cloud services.
- Improved Profitability: Nebius's adjusted EBITDA improved from negative $266 million in 2024 to negative $65 million in 2025, with analysts expecting it to turn positive in 2025, further bolstering investor confidence in its future prospects.
- Market Volatility Analysis: The S&P 500 index has recently experienced multiple fluctuations, with investors facing concerns over AI spending and economic growth, particularly due to escalating conflict in Iran, leading to a bearish market sentiment and unpredictable short-term outlook.
- Historical Performance Review: Despite current market instability, the S&P 500 has historically recovered from every dip, with an average annual return of 10%, demonstrating its reliability as a long-term investment, especially crucial during uncertain times.
- Vanguard ETF Investment Advantage: Investing in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) is a smart choice as it mimics the S&P 500 composition, ensuring investors achieve the same performance as the benchmark, with quarterly adjustments reflecting market changes, providing stable exposure to economically driven companies.
- Diversification Investment Strategy: This ETF includes 11 industries, such as technology, healthcare, and financials, effectively diversifying risk and mitigating the impact of sharp movements in any single stock or industry, with long-term holding expected to yield positive returns.
- Defined Trading Range: NVIDIA's stock has been trading within a defined range of $171 to $195 since December, providing investors with clear buy and sell strategy options based on this stability.
- Resistance and Support Mechanism: At the $171 support level, remorseful sellers may re-enter the market, while at the $195 resistance level, remorseful buyers may sell, thus creating market resistance and support.
- Breakout Strategy: Some traders prefer to wait for the stock to break above the $195 resistance to confirm that sellers have exited the market, potentially setting the stage for upward price movement as new buyers compete to purchase shares.
- Diverse Trading Strategies: Traders can opt to buy at the support level and sell at the resistance, capitalizing on market sentiment shifts to profit, making this strategy particularly effective within the current trading range.
- Strong Earnings Report: Nvidia's fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings showcased a remarkable 73% year-over-year growth, exceeding Wall Street's expectations, although the stock price declined due to market concerns.
- Intensifying Competition: With competitors like Amazon and Alphabet introducing more cost-effective AI accelerators, Nvidia faces increasing competition that could impact its market share and future sales.
- Market Bubble Concerns: There are worries in the market regarding Nvidia's main clients overspending on AI infrastructure, leading to fears that this bubble may burst, resulting in slowing sales and sluggish business performance.
- Optimistic Long-Term Outlook: Despite short-term challenges, Nvidia is launching processors based on its new Vera Rubin architecture, which is expected to drive continued revenue growth and solidify its dominant market position.











