Nvidia Earnings Preview: Market Reaction Analysis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy NVDA?
Source: stocktwits
- Stock Performance: Nvidia shares hit a 2026 high on Wednesday, gaining for three consecutive sessions, reflecting market anticipation for its upcoming earnings report, although retail sentiment has just turned ‘neutral’.
- Market Impact: As the most valuable public company in the U.S., Nvidia's earnings will significantly impact the market, particularly for key suppliers like TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix, which benefit from Nvidia's positive performance.
- Competitive Dynamics: Competitors such as AMD and Intel will also be affected by Nvidia's earnings, with AMD being Nvidia's biggest rival in the AI chip sector, likely experiencing sharp stock movements based on Nvidia's results.
- Cloud Company Reactions: Major cloud companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet are among the largest buyers of Nvidia chips; while they forecast substantial increases in capital expenditures, Nvidia's guidance could still influence their stock prices.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 191.550
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 191.550
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is a full-stack computing infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. The Company’s segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) solutions and software; networking; automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms, and DGX Cloud computing services. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; virtual GPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems, and Omniverse Enterprise software for building and operating industrial AI and digital twin applications.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Nvidia Set to Announce Q4 Earnings Results
- Earnings Expectations: Nvidia is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 25, with consensus EPS estimates at $1.54, reflecting a 73% year-over-year increase, and revenue estimates at $66.12 billion, up 68.1%, indicating strong growth potential.
- Market Reaction: BNP Paribas anticipates a 'classic beat/raise' for the quarter but does not expect significant market-moving news until the GTC conference in March, suggesting investors should focus on future product announcements.
- Product Line Expansion: Analyst Jeff Pu expects Nvidia to launch a language processing unit (LPU) at the GTC event to enhance its inferencing product portfolio, along with a potential CPO for scale-out switches, demonstrating the company's ongoing innovation in the AI sector.
- Industry Impact: Despite Nvidia's consistent earnings beats over the past two years and a stock price increase of over 48% in the last year, concerns about its slowing growth rate may affect the stock performance of other semiconductor companies.
See More
U.S. Approves Nvidia's H200 Chip Exports to China, Shipments Delayed
- Export Approval Status: Although the Trump administration granted Nvidia approval to export its H200 chips to China last December, Commerce Assistant Secretary David Peters stated that no shipments have occurred yet, highlighting the complexities and potential delays in the export process.
- Chinese Market Preparation: Chinese officials have allowed major tech companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance to prepare orders, with expectations of hundreds of thousands of H200 chips being ordered, indicating strong demand for AI chips in the Chinese market.
- National Security Considerations: Trump noted on social media that the export conditions would ensure continued strong national security for the U.S., reflecting that national security remains a critical factor in U.S.-China trade relations.
- Market Reaction Expectations: Despite the order preparations, the delay in chip shipments may impact Nvidia's market performance, particularly as investors closely watch its upcoming earnings report for performance expectations.
See More
Trump's State of the Union Influences Market Sentiment
- Market Sentiment Shift: Investors are digesting President Trump's State of the Union address, leading to a slight market sentiment improvement, with Nasdaq and Russell 2000 futures up 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Dow futures remain flat, reflecting anticipation for Nvidia's upcoming earnings report.
- Nvidia Export Controls: U.S. officials confirmed that Nvidia has not yet sold its flagship H200 chips to China, despite recent export approvals, raising market concerns about future sales and potential spillover effects on competitors like AMD and Intel.
- M&A Tensions: Warner Bros. Discovery stated that Paramount Global's revised $31 billion acquisition bid may be superior to its existing deal with Netflix, intensifying market focus on media sector mergers and potentially impacting the stock performance of involved companies.
- Healthcare Policy Changes: Trump announced plans to end Affordable Care Act premium tax credits during his address, redirecting funds to consumers instead of large insurance companies, which could have significant implications for the healthcare insurance industry, particularly for firms like UnitedHealth.
See More
Nvidia's Earnings Release: Focus on Gross Margin
- Stock Surge: Nvidia's shares have skyrocketed approximately 1,200% since the beginning of 2023, reflecting its dominant position in the AI revolution, and it is expected to continue exceeding Wall Street's sales and profit forecasts, thereby boosting investor confidence.
- Gross Margin Focus: Nvidia's GAAP gross margin is projected to rise from the 60% range to an estimated 74.8%, making this figure a key indicator in the earnings report that showcases the company's sustained pricing power; if it remains in the 74%-75% range, it signals potential upside for the stock.
- Competitive Pressures: Despite Nvidia's monopoly in the AI data center market, competitors like AMD offer lower-priced and more readily available GPUs, which could threaten Nvidia's market share, necessitating investor vigilance regarding the impact on gross margins.
- Strategic Partnerships: The expansion of Nvidia's multi-year GPU agreement with Meta Platforms may alleviate some competitive pressures, yet it also highlights that a reduction in GPU scarcity could negatively affect its pricing power and gross margins, prompting investors to closely monitor future market developments.
See More
Nvidia Earnings Preview: Gross Margin as Key Metric
- Optimistic Earnings Outlook: Nvidia is set to release its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings on February 25, with expectations that sales and profits will exceed Wall Street forecasts, reflecting strong demand and market dominance in the AI sector.
- Gross Margin Increase: Driven by surging AI demand, Nvidia's GAAP gross margin is projected to rise from the low-to-mid 60% range to an estimated 74.8%, indicating robust pricing power as customers are willing to pay a premium for high-performance GPUs.
- Potential Competitive Pressures: Despite Nvidia's current monopoly in the data center market, competitors like AMD offer more affordable GPUs, which could threaten Nvidia's market share, especially as GPU supply improves.
- Strengthened Strategic Partnerships: The expansion of Nvidia's multi-year GPU agreement with Meta Platforms may alleviate some market concerns, yet it also highlights that a reduction in GPU scarcity could negatively impact its pricing power and gross margin.
See More
Nvidia Set to Report Q4 Earnings Amid Strong Growth and New Partnerships
- Strong Revenue Expectations: Wall Street anticipates Nvidia's Q4 revenue to reach approximately $65.6 billion, a 66% increase from $39.3 billion a year ago, highlighting the company's robust growth in the AI sector.
- Earnings Growth Continues: Expected earnings per share are projected at $1.50, significantly up from $0.89 last year, indicating ongoing improvements in the company's profitability.
- Early Launch of Vera Rubin Platform: Earlier this year, Nvidia launched its Vera Rubin computing platform ahead of schedule, with the new GPU delivering up to five times the AI training performance of its predecessor, which is expected to drive future revenue growth.
- Expansion in China and Partnerships: Nvidia's H200 AI chips received initial import approval in China, despite supply constraints, providing opportunities for further market expansion and anticipated sales growth in the region.
See More
Nvidia Set to Announce Q4 Earnings Results
- Earnings Expectations: Nvidia is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 25, with consensus EPS estimates at $1.54, reflecting a 73% year-over-year increase, and revenue estimates at $66.12 billion, up 68.1%, indicating strong growth potential.
- Market Reaction: BNP Paribas anticipates a 'classic beat/raise' for the quarter but does not expect significant market-moving news until the GTC conference in March, suggesting investors should focus on future product announcements.
- Product Line Expansion: Analyst Jeff Pu expects Nvidia to launch a language processing unit (LPU) at the GTC event to enhance its inferencing product portfolio, along with a potential CPO for scale-out switches, demonstrating the company's ongoing innovation in the AI sector.
- Industry Impact: Despite Nvidia's consistent earnings beats over the past two years and a stock price increase of over 48% in the last year, concerns about its slowing growth rate may affect the stock performance of other semiconductor companies.
See More
U.S. Approves Nvidia's H200 Chip Exports to China, Shipments Delayed
- Export Approval Status: Although the Trump administration granted Nvidia approval to export its H200 chips to China last December, Commerce Assistant Secretary David Peters stated that no shipments have occurred yet, highlighting the complexities and potential delays in the export process.
- Chinese Market Preparation: Chinese officials have allowed major tech companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance to prepare orders, with expectations of hundreds of thousands of H200 chips being ordered, indicating strong demand for AI chips in the Chinese market.
- National Security Considerations: Trump noted on social media that the export conditions would ensure continued strong national security for the U.S., reflecting that national security remains a critical factor in U.S.-China trade relations.
- Market Reaction Expectations: Despite the order preparations, the delay in chip shipments may impact Nvidia's market performance, particularly as investors closely watch its upcoming earnings report for performance expectations.
See More
Trump's State of the Union Influences Market Sentiment
- Market Sentiment Shift: Investors are digesting President Trump's State of the Union address, leading to a slight market sentiment improvement, with Nasdaq and Russell 2000 futures up 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Dow futures remain flat, reflecting anticipation for Nvidia's upcoming earnings report.
- Nvidia Export Controls: U.S. officials confirmed that Nvidia has not yet sold its flagship H200 chips to China, despite recent export approvals, raising market concerns about future sales and potential spillover effects on competitors like AMD and Intel.
- M&A Tensions: Warner Bros. Discovery stated that Paramount Global's revised $31 billion acquisition bid may be superior to its existing deal with Netflix, intensifying market focus on media sector mergers and potentially impacting the stock performance of involved companies.
- Healthcare Policy Changes: Trump announced plans to end Affordable Care Act premium tax credits during his address, redirecting funds to consumers instead of large insurance companies, which could have significant implications for the healthcare insurance industry, particularly for firms like UnitedHealth.
See More
Nvidia's Earnings Release: Focus on Gross Margin
- Stock Surge: Nvidia's shares have skyrocketed approximately 1,200% since the beginning of 2023, reflecting its dominant position in the AI revolution, and it is expected to continue exceeding Wall Street's sales and profit forecasts, thereby boosting investor confidence.
- Gross Margin Focus: Nvidia's GAAP gross margin is projected to rise from the 60% range to an estimated 74.8%, making this figure a key indicator in the earnings report that showcases the company's sustained pricing power; if it remains in the 74%-75% range, it signals potential upside for the stock.
- Competitive Pressures: Despite Nvidia's monopoly in the AI data center market, competitors like AMD offer lower-priced and more readily available GPUs, which could threaten Nvidia's market share, necessitating investor vigilance regarding the impact on gross margins.
- Strategic Partnerships: The expansion of Nvidia's multi-year GPU agreement with Meta Platforms may alleviate some competitive pressures, yet it also highlights that a reduction in GPU scarcity could negatively affect its pricing power and gross margins, prompting investors to closely monitor future market developments.
See More
Nvidia Earnings Preview: Gross Margin as Key Metric
- Optimistic Earnings Outlook: Nvidia is set to release its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings on February 25, with expectations that sales and profits will exceed Wall Street forecasts, reflecting strong demand and market dominance in the AI sector.
- Gross Margin Increase: Driven by surging AI demand, Nvidia's GAAP gross margin is projected to rise from the low-to-mid 60% range to an estimated 74.8%, indicating robust pricing power as customers are willing to pay a premium for high-performance GPUs.
- Potential Competitive Pressures: Despite Nvidia's current monopoly in the data center market, competitors like AMD offer more affordable GPUs, which could threaten Nvidia's market share, especially as GPU supply improves.
- Strengthened Strategic Partnerships: The expansion of Nvidia's multi-year GPU agreement with Meta Platforms may alleviate some market concerns, yet it also highlights that a reduction in GPU scarcity could negatively impact its pricing power and gross margin.
See More
Nvidia Set to Report Q4 Earnings Amid Strong Growth and New Partnerships
- Strong Revenue Expectations: Wall Street anticipates Nvidia's Q4 revenue to reach approximately $65.6 billion, a 66% increase from $39.3 billion a year ago, highlighting the company's robust growth in the AI sector.
- Earnings Growth Continues: Expected earnings per share are projected at $1.50, significantly up from $0.89 last year, indicating ongoing improvements in the company's profitability.
- Early Launch of Vera Rubin Platform: Earlier this year, Nvidia launched its Vera Rubin computing platform ahead of schedule, with the new GPU delivering up to five times the AI training performance of its predecessor, which is expected to drive future revenue growth.
- Expansion in China and Partnerships: Nvidia's H200 AI chips received initial import approval in China, despite supply constraints, providing opportunities for further market expansion and anticipated sales growth in the region.
See More
